Posted on 02/02/2013 10:53:18 AM PST by blam
12 Charts That Will Make Gold Bulls Furious
Joe Weisenthal
February 2, 2013, 10:48 AM
The anti-gold bandwagon is getting more and more crowded.
Analysts Tom Kendall and Ric Deverell of Credit Suisse is out with a bombshell report this morning titled: Gold: The Beginning Of The End Of An Era.
The article argues that the 2011 peak of $1921 was the top, and that now the run of the cult metal is coming to an end.
The argument essentially boils down to two arguments, which are related.
The first is that we're seeing rate normalization. When real interest rates are ultra-low, gold does well historically.
The second is that the era of crisis is over, and so the impulse to hedge against collapse (or massive volatility) is diminishing.
(click to the site to see the charts)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Revelation 18 (King James Version)
King James Version (KJV)
18 And after these things I saw another angel come down from heaven, having great power; and the earth was lightened with his glory.
2 And he cried mightily with a strong voice, saying, Babylon the great is fallen, is fallen, and is become the habitation of devils, and the hold of every foul spirit, and a cage of every unclean and hateful bird.
3 For all nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, and the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth are waxed rich through the abundance of her delicacies.
4 And I heard another voice from heaven, saying, Come out of her, my people, that ye be not partakers of her sins, and that ye receive not of her plagues.
5 For her sins have reached unto heaven, and God hath remembered her iniquities.
6 Reward her even as she rewarded you, and double unto her double according to her works: in the cup which she hath filled fill to her double.
7 How much she hath glorified herself, and lived deliciously, so much torment and sorrow give her: for she saith in her heart, I sit a queen, and am no widow, and shall see no sorrow.
8 Therefore shall her plagues come in one day, death, and mourning, and famine; and she shall be utterly burned with fire: for strong is the Lord God who judgeth her.
9 And the kings of the earth, who have committed fornication and lived deliciously with her, shall bewail her, and lament for her, when they shall see the smoke of her burning,
10 Standing afar off for the fear of her torment, saying, Alas, alas that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come.
11 And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:
12 The merchandise of gold, and silver, and precious stones, and of pearls, and fine linen, and purple, and silk, and scarlet, and all thyine wood, and all manner vessels of ivory, and all manner vessels of most precious wood, and of brass, and iron, and marble,
13 And cinnamon, and odours, and ointments, and frankincense, and wine, and oil, and fine flour, and wheat, and beasts, and sheep, and horses, and chariots, and slaves, and souls of men.
14 And the fruits that thy soul lusted after are departed from thee, and all things which were dainty and goodly are departed from thee, and thou shalt find them no more at all.
15 The merchants of these things, which were made rich by her, shall stand afar off for the fear of her torment, weeping and wailing,
16 And saying, Alas, alas that great city, that was clothed in fine linen, and purple, and scarlet, and decked with gold, and precious stones, and pearls!
17 For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,
18 And cried when they saw the smoke of her burning, saying, What city is like unto this great city!
Is someone expecting a crisis soon, and happens to have some extra fiat cash lying around to get rid of?
This may be a simple instance of political corruption. The mayor will look at each company’s contributions to his political opposition (the NRA) and determine whether the company will get a city purchase order. It is an attack on the NRA performed by threatening the NRA’s supporters.
Hey, if you eat at Bob’s restaurant, I might not be buying my next car from you. Maybe you should reconsider where you eat...whadya think?
Unvarnished, old-fashioned corruption.
Wrong thread—my error, sorry.
Joe W. has been banging this drum for years - and has been wrong for years. The day we have real positive interest rates is the day the US goes broke or devalues the currency. Interest rates cannot be allowed to rise since the debt is unpayable. As long as we have negative real rates, gold will be strong.
The conditions that have steadily debased the dollar vs. gold over the past 12 years are not better than they have been; they are worsening and aggregate, excess debt is increasing. The world's debt to hard collateral ratio is astounding and is worsening. I'll keep holding my bullion, thank you.
IMO an amalgam of brass, copper & lead represents the best prospect in the metals futures market.
Some junk silver in the safe helps, too.
Perhaps the “PTB” will manipulate the “paper” price of gold and silver down to the point we won’t be able to find any “physical”
We are posting $1 Trillion deficits yearly. We are printing $40-$80 Billion in fiat toilet paper out of thin air every month. We have a moron running the country.
And gold is finished?
At some point very soon, everyone will be disinclined to purchase our ever increasing debt.....wonder what that will do to inflation?
That’s already happened.
The Fed is “buying” much of its own debt.
“Buying” being a euphemism for simply printing away without actually saying so...
There are two problems,
First of all, we need to stop spending.
There is however a problem. We are exporting formerly American jobs.
Americans are losing jobs. That is the biggest problem, and the reason the GOP is now out of power.
BRING BACK JOBS NOW. Then shrink government.
But do not do it the other way around, or Dems will simply take over.
Bring back US jobs now.
Now.
Very, very liberal business publication. They’re an anomaly.
They've done it before.
Since inflation is really running at 8-10%, it's pretty unlikely that interest rates will exceed inflation, as they would be doing if the government wasn't manipulating the rates and the currency.
We're not much better off than Japan. We get any genuine rate increases and the government is up the creek, big time. We are already borrowing money to pay the interest on the existing debt. Well, not exactly. No one is really even loaning us money, the fed is printing and "buying" most of the debt. It's like sticking a hose up your arse and expecting to live by breathing your own farts. Suicidal.
“It’s like sticking a hose up your arse and expecting to live by breathing your own farts. Suicidal.”
Well put. Perpetual motion designs always seems to fail!
Kyle Bass is predicting Japan’s collapse within 18 to 24 months. That has been a losing bet for a long time but I would never bet against Kyle.
John Williams of Shadowstats (http://www.shadowstats.com/) is predicting US hyperinflation in the relatively near future. Of course, precise timing is completely impossible to guess (and big events always take longer than anyone imagines) but high inflation is in our future. http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-special-report-2012.pdf You can already see it happening in the stock market - rising stock prices in an environment of poor earnings. The MSM sees this as an indication of good times ahead - instead of an early warning of impending price inflation. As Kyle Bass recently said: “Zimbabwe’s stock market was the best performer this decade - but your entire portfolio now buys you 3 eggs.”
Even for Joe Weisenthal, this is pretty weak cheese. Well, let’s just get to ‘em, one by one:
1) Current rates are purely the result of the Fed buying every debt instrument in sight with printed money, nonstop.
2) Gold is above its long term average, so what? A bag of chips has surged to new all time highs and is currently above its long term average too; should I expect it to be cut back to its 1968 price?
3) Official CPI has been fraudulent for forty years, and increasing in the level of fraud with every adjustment. Draw that again with real inflation numbers and we can talk. (Does anybody know what the numbers on the Y-axis here mean?)
4) Gold is overvalued because the biggest housing bubble in the history of the world busted?
5) Any talk of “the Eurozone” being “saved” in the near or far future is simply foolishness. They have only one solution for their debt problems: pay off that debt with more debt-backed debt.
6) Now all of a sudden, something out of trend is supposed to continue to go out of trend, instead of reverting to “historical average”. That same graph shows that two years ago, the price moved 3 standard deviations in less than a year, twice.
7) Cherry-picking graph points. The full graph from 2010 on says nothing more than that we’re bouncing around at zero. (NB that each bounce is weaker than the one before.)
8) Again, from 2010 on, it’s just a graph of random movement.
9) Noise.
10) Housing prices are going up again? Again, so what? BTW, shouldn’t this be indexed to CPI, excuse me, to real CPI?
11) It doesn’t follow that an increase in households implies an increase in housing. I need to see this broken down as home ownership vs rentals.
12) More cherry-picking. The decades-old adage of a silver quarter buying a gallon of gas and an ounce of gold buying you one hell of a suit still holds.
Over time, there is a 90% correlation between Federal reserve credit expansion (buying feral debt/printing money). The Fed Head has committed to open-ended credit expansion until the unemployment rate become acceptable. To assert that the dollar price of gold will fall in a period where the Federal Reserve is funding about half of federal spending by printing money and notating it with a journal entry defies logic.
Moreover, when about 25% of grocery spending is funded by social programs and when 50% of citizens receive some kind of government payment and the federal government is borrowing more than 50% of the money it spends, how much of the sales and profit of consumer goods companies like P & G is funded by money-printing?
What percent of the SP500 index is made up of companies whose customers are people who receive government benefits, or direct business from government? What percent of the SP500 index is funded by air-backed FedBucks? And so what fraction of the DJI is inflated by air backed FedBucks and when the Fed gets exhausted, how much will the SP500 and the DJI drop?
I agree with everything you've said.
I've read that if interest rates go up by two percent, TS(will)HTF.
If we begin to have any sort of recovery, interest rates will go up. So...some self-limiting things going on.
Call me cynical in my advancing years, but wouldn’t a concerted effort to drive down the price of gold make it easier for Obama and the Fed to accrue and pay for the 300 Tons of it that they owe Germany?
Care to explain what anyone holding gold should do now? The scripture your quoting is confusing. Thanks in advance for explaining it to me bmw! God Bless You
Care to explain what anyone holding gold should do now? The scripture your quoting is confusing. Thanks in advance for explaining it to me bmw! God Bless You
Great article. Is this the crack in the financial Hoover Dam?
Whatever happens to gold will not be revealed by the “analysis” of trillion $ coin Joe Weisenthal and the other giddy MMT girls of Business Insider.
Ah, here’s something that we should know about. See the drought forecast through April 30.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html
Sometime in the near future, global agricultural interests will be unable to keep meat prices down by taking revenues from other businesses/debt, IMO. It will be difficult to tell, though, as to when to buy livestock. I’m holding off on getting yaks for at least another year (high altitude and cold here for year-round cattle that consume more hay). Hay’s very difficult to find and afford in the West.
Oh, so our national debt is under control then? No? Didn’t think so. Gold prices have plenty of room to grow just as fast as that debt has been. The Market Makers send out these pinheads to spread propaganda and then buy or sell depending on what they need. Happens all the time, and anyone that is serious in the financial world only listens to them to know which way they are trying to manipulate the markets.
The only thing left is faith in Jesus and pray. Then listen to your heart. He will out the answer for you there. It will be different for everyone.
Goldbug Ping.
These idiots misinformed souls don't understand that gold is money -- not an investment vehicle. Don't buy gold for a return; buy gold to maintain the purchasing power of your savings.
Dopes.
Gold and silver was used for thousands of years as a medium of exchange long before fiat currency was invented.
We have hay coming out of our ears around here (Mobile).
Here's a little tidbit of info that I learned from my archaeology studies.
Cows use their food three times more efficent than do horses. Archaeologists use the ratio of cow/horse bones in an area to determine if deaths were drought related. More horse will die and sooner than cows.
The world is very different today in the world of exchange. the value of items for a short period will not be like the old systems until things adjust. These periods of change have been in the past. Money and gold will not worth crap.
For me, gold and silver is insurance. I don't ever expect to make any money from it.
I'll survive most anything with it though.
I like that a lot. Suppression serves many official purposes.
Will someone please pry Joe Weisenthal’s lips from Obamas @$$?
I can't stand the little ----- either.
Good luck with that. I will keep on buying gold and silver.
You have it backwards.
The price of specially printed paper representing blips on an electronic ledger is measured in ounces (troy) of gold.
All of these charts refer to the US economy. The US has not been a major driver in the gold price increases since 2000 (unless you subscribe to the COMEX fraud via naked short selling view).
Wow, you pay $5.75 a gallon?
I disagree, gold and silver have been money for over 5,000 years, no matter what happens gold and silver will continue to be money.
The correct form of a rebuttal would be to suggest that I cannot buy a gallon of gas with a silver quarter.
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