Call it a reactionary streak.
Posted on 12/31/2012 6:36:21 AM PST by thackney
Back in September, with Brent crude oil prices sitting a little above $110, I predicted that Brent would drop to $100 or below by the end of November. While prices made an initial move in this direction, unrest in the Middle East and the weakening dollar (among other catalysts) have brought Brent crude back up to $110 at year-end. This demonstrates the danger of making short-range predictions based on long-term trends; other short-term factors can intercede and dictate the short-term price action.
However, the long-term trends that I identified in the earlier article are still present, and over the course of 2013, I expect growing supplies (and relatively stagnant demand) to pull Brent prices down below $100. The critical driver is the opening up of new transport capacity to move U.S. inland crude to the coasts in order to replace imported crude, which will in turn pressure Brent prices. This will allow the U.S., and the rest of the world by extension, to take advantage of rapidly growing domestic production that thus far has had trouble getting to market.
On Friday, the EIA released the last Weekly Petroleum Status Report of 2012, which highlighted how rapidly the U.S. oil supply is growing. For the week ended December 21, U.S. crude production totaled 6.984 million bpd (barrels per day), more than 1.1 million bpd above the comparable period last year. For the full year, production has averaged 6.22 million bpd, up nearly 600,000 bpd over last year. While some commentators have worried that the "shale boom" is peaking, production figures do not support that view. Growth rates have increased strongly through the year. However, higher production has only impacted the price of WTI, while Brent crude has remained above $100 for most of the year, due to insufficient takeaway capacity in...
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
Pump prices reflect this also here in Baltimore County,MD
It is a known ploy of the hustler to make varying predictions, and then to highlight one that came true while ignoring the others; the simplest is the cold-caller who tells half the prospective clients a stock will go up, and the other half that it will go down, and then calls back the correct half.
This article illustrates that one does not actually have to predict correctly to succeed.
I don’t have the obvious expertise that this writer does, but I also successfully failed to predict the price of Crude Oil on December 31, 2012. I’m simply not writing an article to mention it.
I predict that by December of 2013, there will be a price of oil.
One of a long chain of trends which Obama had absolutely nothing to do with (but which will rebound to his benefit, and for which he’ll take full credit)
Back in September, with Brent crude oil prices sitting a little above $110, I predicted that Brent would drop to $100 or below by the end of November. While prices made an initial move in this direction, unrest in the Middle East and the weakening dollar (among other catalysts) have brought Brent crude back up to $110 at year-end... over the course of 2013, I expect growing supplies (and relatively stagnant demand) to pull Brent prices down below $100. The critical driver is the opening up of new transport capacity to move U.S. inland crude to the coasts in order to replace imported crude, which will in turn pressure Brent prices. This will allow the U.S., and the rest of the world by extension, to take advantage of rapidly growing domestic production that thus far has had trouble getting to market... the last Weekly Petroleum Status Report of 2012... For the week ended December 21, U.S. crude production totaled 6.984 million bpd (barrels per day), more than 1.1 million bpd above the comparable period last year. For the full year, production has averaged 6.22 million bpd, up nearly 600,000 bpd over last year. While some commentators have worried that the "shale boom" is peaking, production figures do not support that view.
Our, as consumers trying to predict oil $ is about as accurate as predicting the weather without ever listening to a weather report.
As to the US oil companies hustling you, if it weren't for the shear volume, no one in their right mind would survive, much less prosper on the minuscule margin they get.
OPEC is a different animal, they just profit from luck. On the other hand, considering where and how they live, damn few of us would consider that a good luck of the draw.
This article talks about the oil commodity but fails to address the us dollar commodity used to purchase the oil. If our US budget deficits continue to explode, our currency could be halved in value, causing the price of oil to double.
It simply isn’t just a supply and demand discussion.
Silliness. Cushing prices will rise, not the other way around. Our domestic crude is priced way too low compared to the rest of the world.
Sorry about the double posts... Browser froze up.
Call it a reactionary streak.
Able to afford internet?
It comes with the rent.
Besides it was a sarcastic exaggeration of how high prices are of gas and everything else that has gone up since Obama came into office.
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