Skip to comments.Total: Oil Production to Peak at 98M Barrels per Day
Posted on 12/12/2012 7:20:49 AM PST by thackney
New discoveries and technological advances have increased the oil industry's ability to increase production in recent years, pushing global maximum oil production to 98 million barrels per day for longer than initially expected, Total SA's Chairman and Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said Tuesday.
Global oil production should plateau at that level for some time before dropping as reserves gradually deplete, de Margerie said during a meeting with the Anglo-American Press Association in Paris.
Technological constraints led the French oil major to estimate in 2007 that the "peak oil" production rate would be at around 95 million barrels per day, or mb/d--a conservative estimate compared with those of its competitors.
"Peak oil" is categorized as when worldwide oil production reaches its maximum possible level before irreversibly dropping back due to a lack of new reserves.
(Excerpt) Read more at rigzone.com ...
That can’t be. We are almost out of oil now. I read it in a science article back in 1977.
Every time I've heard this, they have wound up being wrong.
National Geographic said the same thing in 1974.
I remember the cover and article. Lots and Lots of Windmills and solar panels.
40 years and were still waiting...
At some point they have to put up or shut up.
Back when Time Magazine had covers about global cooling, featuring the new "Ice Age" that was coming
Was that the same issue of National Geographic that predicted the doom and gloom of the coming ice age? I remember that one well.
I'm calling BS on this article. The above statement is putting the cart before the horse. It's the high oil prices that have led to increased production. The "new discoveries and technological advances" are the inevitable result of higher oil prices.
This is why the peak oil stuff is silly, as long as prices keep going up, oil production will increase until every last drop has been extracted. Then, it will plummet quickly.
I think he is way low and the prospect of the new fields being tapped is almost unlimited.
And then there are the Hydrates.
Actually the most likely scenario is that any peak will be due to the inability of the market to aborb more not because there will be falling reserves.
US reserves are said to be greater than Canada's. North America is the new Saudi Arabia of oil.
June 1974: Oil, the Dwindling Treasure. Said peak would be 1995.
I think the chase after Methane Hydrates are going to slow down for a while. There has been some test production in Alaska already.
But with the amount of shale gas being released into the market, I don't think the economics for Methane Hydrates is going to be competitive until the world Natural Gas demand climbs significantly higher giving sustained support for higher natural gas prices.
But that is okay. We know it is there. We can get it when we are ready for it. Between now and then, industry will fiddle a bit with it trying to find lower cost methods to produce it.
"Gotcher solah panels riight heah!
Windmills! Gitcher windmills! Free energy from the air!
Nevah pay another bill!
Don't fret, Of course we have an installment plan!
Easy Credit! No money down!"
And...we were told we would be freezing to death because of global cooling.
Caused of course by those evil vehicles spewing exhaust.
There is no such thing as peak oil... it is a lie just like globull warming.
I believe there eventually will be a peak production point where we produce less. I do not believe the production rate will forever increase for eternity.
But I do not believe that point is near at hand. Nor will it necessarily be created due to a lack of oil available. It will be driven by economics and most likely new discoveries in other energy sources.
The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones. But we did become less dependent on them as we chose better tools to use.
LOL..great example! Also firewood (displaced by coal), whale oil (displaced by petroleum).................and on and on. Human ingenuity.......the unappreciated resource.
Hopefully we will have an alternative energy by then... but for now... there is no peak oil... and there may never be.
I have my suspicions that Natural Gas may bring the peak sooner, due to economics.
Shell’s Gas-to-Liquids is becoming more economical and produces fuels that today’s vehicles can use.
That would allow the existing infrastructure and distribution to switch to GTL liquid fuel, running on Natural Gas with little cost to switch.
I did not realize that we had some work going on in Alaska. I do know that we did have a test and development well off the coast of Washington with the Japanese.
I do suspect that it will slow down a lot but I hope we continue to develop methods to heat the hydrates and control the pressures.
I wonder if we learned anything about it during the Gulf BP blowout?
Gas-hydrate tests to begin in Alaska
No Barrow hydrate research funds; wells will be drilled
USGS estimates ANS holds 85.4 tcf of gas hydrates
That would be great.
what “peak oil” predictors always leave out is that as long as the whole world does not slip back into the dark ages, technological progress is also likely to be “irreversible” and that will include technological progress in finding and extracting “fossil fuels” as well
if they were really smart they would look back at all the prior “peak oil” predictions, calculate an average for how far off they have been, and include that little fact as indicative of how far off they are likely to be as well
A remarkably large number of commentators repeat this claim, for no particular reason I can see.
Sure, NA has lots of shale gas and oil, but so do a great many other countries, including Oz and UK, many of which have not been thoroughly explored and in very few of which any attempt has yet been made to start production.
This widespread distribution is a very good thing. The super-high and extremely volatile nature of oil prices has been because its production was limited geographically and very largely to countries hostile to America and the West.
The more countries that produce their own oil, the less money and power will go to the Salafis.
I think starving that particular beast is even worth paying more than present prices.
The US has about 20 billion barrels. Throw in reserves off both coasts, Alaska, North Dakota, and shale oil and you have a much higher number.
Develop and exploit the energy resources under our feet in North America and the mid east will wither and die economically and politically.
So much left to be tapped....and they haven’t even been touched yet.
And they haven’t even begin to tap into the possibilities of Thorium.