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To: AuH2ORepublican; Impy; BillyBoy

I find it surprising that “Just-Us” didn’t force SC to draw a 2nd Black majority district (not counting Scott). Still, if we have a bad turnout year, the Dems could conceivably take a majority under the current lines. If we keep it at 6-1 for the remainder of the decade, no worries, though if we lose any of the seats, drawing a 2nd seat to keep the other 5 safe is something to consider for 2022.


36 posted on 12/14/2012 8:18:50 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Impy; BillyBoy

As you may recall, I preferred drawing a second black-majority CD in SC, which would (i) protect against the possibility of judicial redrawing of the districts, (ii) keep 5 CDs 100% safe for Republicans and (iii) make it extremely difficult for RATs to draw a map that favored Democrats if they gained control of the SC legislature and governorship by 2022 (since it would violate the VRA not to have 2 black-majority CDs once they have been created). But that’s just me: I’m a strong proponent of “safety first” and of packing Democrats whenever possible even at the cost of picking up an extra GOP CD. If we hold a 6-1 delegation for the rest of the decade—and the only seats truly at risk are Mulvaney’s SC-05 and Rice’s SC-07 (the SC-01 and SC-2 are theoretically winnable for Dems, but at 59% for Romney in spite of historic black turnout I’m not too concerned about them), I think that Republicans should go for 6-1 again in 2022 by expanding the black-majority SC-06 (which likely will need to pick up population once again) to take in black precincts in the SC-05 and SC-07, and have the SC-03 and SC-04 take in some more marginal (due to relatively large black population) counties to their south, and thus draw 6 CDs that are a couple of points more Republican than the state as a whole.


37 posted on 12/15/2012 4:55:50 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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