Posted on 12/09/2012 5:07:50 PM PST by blam
In Case You Haven't Realized, Goldman Sachs Is Predicting A Major Economic Turn To Happen In 2013
Joe Weisenthal
December 8, 2012
Goldman Sachs continues to dribble out its 2013 forecasts and top trades.
And as the firm peels back more and more, it's clear that the forecast is for major change to the economy.
This can be seen across multiple calls, from multiple analysts.
It starts with top economist Jan Hatzius, who sees, for the first time since the financial crisis, the economy accelerating to above-trend growth in the second half of next year.
The call is based on an expectation of private sector releveraging, coupled with the end of the fiscal drag.
In turn, Goldman commodity analyst Damien Courvalin is calling for the end of the great gold bull market next year, based on the fact that real interest rates are finally going to start heading higher.
The essence of the call comes down to this chart, which shows the relationship between gold and 10-year real interest rates (when interest rates are ultra-low or negative, holding cash is expensive, this gold is appealing. If real interest rates turn positive, gold loses its luster).
Goldman Sachs
Other big calls follow.
Its top stock idea for 2013 is going long huge megabanks, a trade that's based on an accelerating economy, an improving housing market, and the efficacy of monetary policy.
They write:
Fed policy is set to remain extraordinarily accommodative, with ongoing MBS purchases and a focus on the housing market as an important channel for monetary policy.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
We are going into debt at the rate of $4.8 billion per day with no let up in sight. And, GS is predicting a good coming year? Someone please explain this to me.
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I assume they mean it will be a good year for Goldman Sachs and their ilk.
This is the kind of thinking at GS. They lowered their 4th Qtr 2012 GDP estimate 0.5% due to Sandy, then they raised 1st Qtr 2013 GDP 0.5% because of Sandy - that really makes no sense since capital has to come from somewhere, i.e. the broken window parable.
They fail to note that QE infinity is actually helping Asia more since capital, like people, will only go where wanted.
There’s the bathroom on the right.
I’m thinking they’ll funnel our taxes into their accounts with a Bozo-stamped pipeline.
By the time this brew fully manifests itself market-wide, nation-wide, and eventually worldwide, those few will have pocketed what may be the last remaining profits to be had in this economy, and will be protected by the powers that be from any potential future prosecution that may arise.
Indeed, you will likely see them disappear.
Much like Red Badger says, I, too, see a bad moon rising.
Do these people not see the reality of what rising interest rates will do?
If you've got bonds, dump ‘em - fast!
CA....
Sure.
Think of it as the economy always walking downhill while Goldman Sachs is always walking uphill.
Like this:
Total Hog Wash. When the Federal borrowing is forced to stop then the artificially propped up GDP is going to slam through the floor for obvious reasons. For a time then Jobless rates are going to go into never never land. Default by the sheeple will be the name of the game. Goldman Sachs will however find a way to steal blankets from homeless children, and sell them at a profit. As they more than anyone are responsible for the mess the whole world is in.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.
starting jan 1, American small business will have a forced 10+% increase in salaries... which will force them to either reduce hours... cut staff... or jack prices
and American small business employs a majority (80%) of the jobs...
which will drive up unemployment...
and food stamps...
exactly what would make the economy improve again?
And then all those Obamabucks will be going to banks and China instead of to Obamaphone accounts or EBT cards.
I looked out my back door earlier this week and saw that a family business that’s been around for decades has closed. I looked out my back door the week before and saw that the animal rescue thrift store that had been in operation for more than ten years is closed. It was operated by a local vet who provided low cost spaying and neutering for strays anyone brought in and often free care for animals owned by the poor. His regular clinic just couldn’t carry the weight any more as more and more people have had to give up their animals and almost all pet stores are out of business from sky high feed costs and rising prices on cages and other supplies.
Doot, doot, doot, lookin’ out my back door...
It will, though collapse the government when its debt servicing burden doubles, triples....
Major economic turn for who?
Thank you for posting your right-on observations. I would add the fact that after Jan 1, unemployment benefits will dry up for many, which will also make things worse in the economy. And those going on unemployment will have shortened benefits. And most working people will have a much higher tax burden... How can the economy improve?
Interesting.
However, is it true that Goldman trades against its clients and has done so for many years, from what I’ve heard?
Wouldn’t be surprised in the least!
CA....
Unless proven otherwise, treat any utterance from GS as if it came directly from the White House.
*
Coming from Goldman, what this really means is that they expect the gold bull market to continue, so they claim it's over, so people will sell "at the top", causing the price to go down, so they (Goldman) can buy a little more at a reduced price.
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