Skip to comments.IBD/TIPP Final Results: Obama 50.3%, Romney 48.7%
Posted on 11/05/2012 11:47:32 PM PST by Birdy
For the first time since we started the poll, Obama garners 40% of the white vote. That's a critical threshold he had to hit in order to make a win possible. Romney continues to hold a significant 6-point advantage with independents and a 14-point edge with investors. Romney performs better with Conservatives than McCain did in 2008. Catholic voters are breaking for Romney. He now holds a 17-point lead among this group, up from just 1 point in the Oct. 28 poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
It’s all about internals. That lead among Catholics is huge... especially in swing states....
These guys are nuts.
I think so. I actually expected this to be worse for Romney.
is that the sampling number?
These guys are nuts.
Yes, espically in WI and PA.
I’m going with this projection——http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university
Very good CatOwner!
The results out of Dixville Notch this morning bear no relation at all to this poll. O voters are staying home.
D+7 is simply not going to happen today. Maybe in their dreams!
Kiss this one good bye!
Beyond D+7, only 31% GOP? Far too low.
“Kiss this one good bye!”
and, say “Hello” to coattails!
me too!....My mind keeps going to that article..it keeps reminding me of that study that has been right even in 2000 when i hear the name “Nate Silver”
I like your new “look.” ;o)
Oh yeah, Obama gets 95% of the Liberal vote, but Romney only gets 78% of the Conservative vote. A case could be made that some conservatives will stay home, but those that vote will be in the 90+% range for Romney.
I don’t see a male/female sample size. Another trick some of these pollsters have been using as we began catching on to the ridiculous DEM oversamplings, is oversampling women to give Zero another little added boost. But all their bullshit will finally be over in less than 24 hours. Go, Mitt!
What impresses me about this study is that it is NOT dependent on how one ‘feels’ or an opinion but on a wide variety of economic factors and data.
Maybe Hoefling comes away with the other 22% tomorrow. LOL.
Backing out the numbers, realizing the percentages are rounded to the nearest integer, I get 49% male and 51% female. Not unrealistic. But some of the other numbers, like ideology, are way off.
The real kicker is Romney has a 17 point lead among Catholics, a traditionally Democratic voting bloc.
There is no way on earth O can win with that kind of deficit. The top line - is well unmitigated bull. Especially that 6 point Romney lead among independents.
A Democrat doesn’t win a national election with those kind of numbers. Period.
So kick conservatives’ ass to vote Romney !
There is no other saver than Jesus and we all know that Romney is not perfect !
Desperation , hoplessness, are definitly NOT CHRISTIAN
Poise Etiquette and Grooming.
It's the PEG system!
Sample size is very small! And within the margin of error, Romney could easily be well ahead - even according to this poll.
And the GOP crossover for Obama is simply not believable.
Close to 1980?
I remember that like it was yesterday.
I would miss the “old” you. ;o)
I certainly hope these corrupt polling organizations will pay a price for these outrages. D+6, D+8, hell, last night there was a NC poll with D+13!!! So shamelessly in the tank for Obama, they should have *no* credibility left after tomorrow.
I think that, after the swings from ‘08 to ‘10, they are very confused as to how to score their polling numbers.
They believe the TEA Party to be dead.
However, to discount the TEA Party in ‘10, they do at their own peril.
Their justice will be delivered tomorrow.
You mean today, right? ;-)
I think that we are missing something here. The D+7 is plainly wrong unless you assume that the high Indy number includes many who would identify as Republican tomorrow in final party ID based upon how they vote. This would bring the Indy number down to a reasonable level and close the gap between D and R. It also is consistent with Romney being up big with the Indies. Unfortunately, the top line result thus would not have to change to produce a more reasonable looking party split. In other words, I am no longer convinced that the exclusive focus on the D+ number is enough to rebut all polls where that number appears out of whack. There may be other things to consider.
I am afraid that the tide of support that Romney recently enjoyed is going out and we will not like what tomorrow brings. I hope that I am wrong.
Let’s just hope that Ras and Gallup are right and that Romney pulls this out.
17% lead among Catholics for Romney. That would be more than encouraging ,it’s history in the making!
Just like the wapost upped their sample of DEMs from D+3 to D+6 in their final pool to show a narrow O lead, even though if they had kept the same +3 weight O would have actually lost ground.
Where do these guys fall on the list of pollsters acuracy? I rest my case. Hey I have a poll and my poll is going to stick it to zero, there I said it
You make no sense to me. If the Dems are oversampled (relative to Rep) because (as you appear to say) the Independents who favor Romney are actually self identified Republicans then there is no point in polling at all.
These pollsters are using the respondents own self id’s Party affiliation in their results, If out of 100 people taking the survey 38% say they are Dems, 31% say they are Rep and 31% say they are Ind then that is the turnout they predict will occur. It doesn’t appear to make a difference if they must contact 100 people to get even 5 to take the survey and there os no line drawn to cut off where common sense leaves and absurd takes over. By that I mean if of the 100 taking the survey 44% id’d as Dems they would use that number while in another poll it would be D or R + or - absolutely anything, thereby making the polls worthless.
Disregard most of what I said in my just posted response. I understand what you are saying is if we take the Ind lead of 6 for Romney and apply it to the Rep turnout (making Ind even for both candidates) we would still have Obama with a tiny lead albeit within the MOE and with a small sample.
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I sure hope we are not being blind to reality. I was expecting the trend to go to Romney, but its shifted back to zero :( In the 1980 election they broke for Reagan in the last days...
I am afraid we are not gonna like this...
God, I truly hope I am wrong :(
D+7 poll and Obama wins by 1. This will be a landslide.
I see once again that we sing in the same choir! ;-)
Rubber room time for these guys.
This is an encouraging poll for us Conservatives. The internals tell the tale.
A +18% from the Catholics sounds a bit more optimistic to be true, but it does indicate that many Catholics have seen the light on Obama.
Here in central Minnesota’s rural Catholic towns, I doubt very much if Obama gets any votes at all. Romney finishing with such strong optimism and such a warm smile has sealed the deal, IMHO.
Rounding. Numbers are probably something like 37.8%, 30.6%, and 31.6%.