Oct 2010: R 33.4% D 36.3% O 30.3% (R-2.9%)
Blowout!!
So explain to me how his poll today only had Romney up by 1?
Is Ras going to release November?
Buried in one of Nate Silvers recent articles is this gem:
Mr. Romney would not be in much danger of losing the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by more than about 1.5 percentage points. For example, he would be about a 95 percent favorite in the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by two percentage points, according to the forecast model.
But with national polls now showing a slight edge for Mr. Obama, these outcomes have become less likely. If Mr. Romney wins the popular vote, it may be only barely, and that might not be enough for him to win the Electoral College.
The reason polls run so heavily Democrat is to account for voter fraud.
So why the heck is he using D+2 in his turnout model?
ROTFLMAOPIMP...'math is hard, indeed!'
Too bad his polls are not showing that republican swing. He still has a 3 or 4 % dem skew
To all those who would dismiss this information as being irrelevant or not an indication of who shows up to vote, and how they vote, I would simply point you to the PDF at the site showing the electorate in October 2008. It was dead on. And the result was as well.
Why he is deviating from this for current polling vs. sticking to it like 2008 is an interesting question. I don’t doubt that concern about the proletarian Obama regime pressure could be playing a role.
What was this in 2008, 2004?
I have felt it would be minimally R+3/4 Ras saying +6 can believe that..
What I don’t get though is how he says its R+6 but the overall election is 1 point... I just don’t get it.
2008 was D+7 with Independents breaking hard for O, and its 52-46 O win..
Yet here in 2012 we are looking at R+6 and Independents breaking big time for Romney and O is facing the loss of 10%+ of his base in the Blue Dogs who are not going to vote for him, Yet its a 1 point election??
Just don’t get Ras’s overall numbers.
Well IF this is correct Romney will win by double digits. When you aggregate all the national polls (which include 30k+ respondents) the numbers break as follows:
Dems: O 91.2%, R 7.6%, U/O 1.2%
Reps: O4.7%, R 94.5%, U/O 0.8%
Indies: O 38.1%, R 47.7%, U/O 14.2%
If we allocate 6% of the indies to the third party candidates, Have the undecided break 70/30 to Romney, and apply the Ras party affiliation model the election would turn out as follows:
Romney 54.7%
Obama 43.6%
Third party 1.7%
This sort of total blowout would of course have some other benefits, The Senate races would break R, and the Lib lackey’s in the MSM would be totally discredited.
Amazed that Ras is using a +3% D model in his samples.
Well IF this is correct Romney will win by double digits. When you aggregate all the national polls (which include 30k+ respondents) the numbers break as follows:
Dems: O 91.2%, R 7.6%, U/O 1.2%
Reps: O4.7%, R 94.5%, U/O 0.8%
Indies: O 38.1%, R 47.7%, U/O 14.2%
If we allocate 6% of the indies to the third party candidates, Have the undecided break 70/30 to Romney, and apply the Ras party affiliation model the election would turn out as follows:
Romney 54.7%
Obama 43.6%
Third party 1.7%
This sort of total blowout would of course have some other benefits, The Senate races would break R, and the Lib lackey’s in the MSM would be totally discredited.
Amazed that Ras is using a +3% D model in his samples.
We will be playing this song on tues night , Landslide:
Here is the info we’ve all known - and why the polls using D+4 are way off.
Boom.
I do not get it. Why does he not use his own weighting on his polls? Instead he uses D+5.
More good news....in review of Rasmussen historical data, Democrat voter ID is within .5% of its lowest level in the past 9 years. In each Presidential cycle, there is an increase of voters identifying with one party or the other, and a corresponding reduction in self identified independents to approximately 24.5%. This cycle, Republican voter SELF IDENTIFICATION is at an ALL TIME HIGH, while firming amongst Dems HAS NOT taken place. Thus, indies are identifying 27.9% of the electorate. I would read that 3.5% increase as Dem base voters who are disaffected and will simply not vote. This is crazy good!!
So there are more Republicans than Democrats, but the pollsters say more Democrats are going to show up at the polls. Please.
Holy crap!!! a 13.4% swing toward GOP since 2008!!!
How, then, can this be CLOSE? Dems must be super motivated and Republicans staying home in numbers bigger than 2008? SOMETHING is way off, here.
And there is nothing that the Criminal Organization Formerly Known as ACORN can do about it, because they can't cheat enough to make a difference.