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CNN National Poll: Dead heat between Obama and Romney (R 49%, 0 49% .. + 11% Dem!)
CNN ^

Posted on 11/04/2012 5:32:26 PM PST by Arthurio

Washington (CNN) – It's all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.

And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned say they support the president, with an equal amount saying they back the former Massachusetts governor.

(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: poll; polling; polls
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To: SoftwareEngineer

A hashtag or link would be helpful.


51 posted on 11/04/2012 6:10:02 PM PST by maggief
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To: rwfromkansas

I’ve been hearing that 10 to 15% of Barack’s former satisfied customers are no longer so. And that Mitt has gotten a lot greater enthusiasm out of GOP voters than that dishrag John McCain did. How anyone could expect a squeaker for Barack under such circumstances is... mysterious.


52 posted on 11/04/2012 6:10:56 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

I do agree it’s very cynical. I think it may be true in some cases (where D are ridiculously oversampled), but in most cases I think the models are vbased on 2008 turnout.


53 posted on 11/04/2012 6:12:00 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Arthurio

Using the poll’s cross-tab splits (99% of R’s for Romney, 93% of D’s for O and 59/37 of Ind’s for Romney) applied against the Gallup demographics of 49%R/46%D/5%I, I get 53.8% Romney, 45.1% O and 1.1% other. Landslide numbers!!!


54 posted on 11/04/2012 6:12:30 PM PST by TomT in NJ
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To: LS

Yea , well come tues nov. 6th , we gonna’ lock the crack house doors , and send the junkies scurrying like so many cockroaches.


55 posted on 11/04/2012 6:12:33 PM PST by ping jockey (Maybe we aren't going down the crapper after all.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

ABSOLUTELY ridiculous partisan splits.

Mitt Romney leads by 22-points with Independent voters and the survey sampled 11 percentage points more Democrats than Republicans (Dem 41, Rep 30, Ind 29).

The modern record for partisan differential was 7 percentage points more Democrats in 2008.

Obama gets 40% of the White vote despite massive over-sampling of Democrats.


56 posted on 11/04/2012 6:12:40 PM PST by JerseyRepub (I voted for John Kerry before I voted against him!)
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To: USNBandit

If Obama really enjoyed that kind of lopsided partisan advantage - he’d be up 7 to 8 points right now cruising to a second term.

There no way on earth it should be tied with the equivalent of home field artillery. That’s how ridiculous these internals are. No reputable pollster would say Democrats have more than a 3+ to 4+ D advantage in the current electorate and even that is debatable.

In 2008, according to Gallup Obama enjoyed a 7+D advantage. Its unlikely he can better that as CNN wants us to believe. And if he could, he would have put away the race by now.


57 posted on 11/04/2012 6:13:53 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: LS

Despite being an addict of polls, I wish they would ban them 30 days before an election. They are too influential and drive coverage of the race too much instead of talking about policy.


58 posted on 11/04/2012 6:15:34 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: goldstategop
That is why I never watch the MSM.

i stopped watching all MSM including FOX News four years ago after Obama won the presidency... i am at my parents, and the television was on after a football game... i happened to hear it from the kitchen, so i went to see what they had to say... of course i don't expect CBS to be impartial... but it is annoying...

59 posted on 11/04/2012 6:15:49 PM PST by latina4dubya ( self-proclaimed tequila snob)
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To: maggief

Maggie,

there are many good hashtags, but go with this guy first

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher

Cheers!


60 posted on 11/04/2012 6:19:02 PM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: rwfromkansas

Many countries have laws that ban publication of polls 48 hours to the election.

Polls like this one aren’t informative and their utility is very questionable.


61 posted on 11/04/2012 6:19:40 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: NittanyLion

Wow, that would indicate a 12 -14 point margin for Mitt....


62 posted on 11/04/2012 6:20:51 PM PST by C. Edmund Wright ("GONE: The Four Year Wave That Rocked The Bubble" due out Nov 8th)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

i want then to be intellectually honest, but i don’t expect it... and i am annoyed by it all... which is why, four years ago when Obama won the election i stopped watching all television news... even FOX—which is what i was mainly watching back then...


63 posted on 11/04/2012 6:21:48 PM PST by latina4dubya ( self-proclaimed tequila snob)
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To: rwfromkansas
"Even good-sounding statistics can be wrong."

I'm only interested in polls that come with an ironclad guarantee of perpetual satisfaction.

64 posted on 11/04/2012 6:23:15 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: conservativepoet
11+ Dem sample? Are you kidding me? They’re desperate if so.

The Dim numbers sure do fluctuate in these rat polls to keep Obama's head out of the water.

65 posted on 11/04/2012 6:23:46 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: SoftwareEngineer; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; ...

As my tagline reads: The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.

We (Tea Party) are still here. We are mad as hell. We will win this.


66 posted on 11/04/2012 6:24:43 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
What happened to journalistic credibility?

They don't care about that at all. The Moonbats will still watch them.

67 posted on 11/04/2012 6:27:11 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Jet Jaguar
"We (Tea Party) are still here"

I'd guess that Tea Party folks are less likely to give a pollster the time of day.

68 posted on 11/04/2012 6:28:24 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Page 29, under “methodology”...went looking for it myself :-)


69 posted on 11/04/2012 6:31:34 PM PST by missycocopuffs
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To: Jet Jaguar

One sure sign O is losing the election is he’s begun attacking the Tea Party in his stump speeches.

He needs to bring the moonbats out to vote and has given up on winning over moderates and independents. Its all about getting out the base now.


70 posted on 11/04/2012 6:35:41 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

This poll has Romney +22 with Indies. Thus, the +11 D sample to pull Obama even!


71 posted on 11/04/2012 6:43:06 PM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: PatrickHaggerty

“I’ve never heard an explanation for the absurd over sampling of democrats in these polls.”

It’s not a poll of opinion, it’s a HEADLINE-DRIVING POLL, pushing the narrative to Obama’s voters to get out and vote, to save THE MESSIAH.

If Romney wins, the Media got-some serious splainin’ to do!


72 posted on 11/04/2012 6:50:29 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Thank you.


73 posted on 11/04/2012 6:51:08 PM PST by maggief
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To: SoftwareEngineer

So they manipulated the skew over many weeks with a swing of D+2 to D+4 on average then boom it’s +11?
Wow!


74 posted on 11/04/2012 6:51:58 PM PST by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: Paladin2; LS

Correct. Look to FReeper LS.

He has been looking at the absentee ballot requests for R and D in Ohio.

His historical analysis compared to actual requests in 2012 show Ohio will go anti-Obama.


75 posted on 11/04/2012 6:55:25 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: goldstategop

This is wonderful news! This poll shows the communist Obama is finished!


76 posted on 11/04/2012 6:56:53 PM PST by rurgan (give laws an expiration date:so the congress has to review every 4 years to see if needed)
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To: Qwackertoo

Did Fox have a poll that said Obama was up 6 in Ohio? I heard they did but couldn’t verify.


77 posted on 11/04/2012 6:58:48 PM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: All

naturally d+11 is insanity. but it really seems like fox is also tighening their polls. now look, those of us who go to work everday and love america want nothing more than to send the kenyan marxist packing.
but these guys are trying to make a living off this, so they need the viewers. both sides, i mean, as much as i love fox, you think even hannity would trade his gig for a romney victory? i would, but i’m not that stable.


78 posted on 11/04/2012 7:02:06 PM PST by willywill
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To: Arthurio
Dead heat my ass.
79 posted on 11/04/2012 7:04:22 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

I glanced through and could not find it either.


80 posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:42 PM PST by PghBaldy
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To: PghBaldy
Ugh - JUST FOUND IT - page 29:

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans

The poll is garbage.

81 posted on 11/04/2012 7:13:07 PM PST by PghBaldy
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To: PghBaldy
"The poll is garbage."

A case could be made that this poll says a lot. A D+11 sample was needed to get the race to 49-49, while Romney leads INDs by 22 (59-37). Even if this were D+6 and Romney led INDs by 11 (half), it would still spell trouble for Obama.

82 posted on 11/04/2012 7:24:23 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: latina4dubya

Andrea from the Romney campaign tweeted on the CNN poll:

In new CNN poll, Romney leads independents 59-35!! Topline appears tied, but sample is D +11 http://bit.ly/TEhqQa


83 posted on 11/04/2012 7:45:51 PM PST by Qwackertoo (Romney/Ryan 2012 The Future of Our Children and Their Children are at stake.)
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To: CatOwner
It is spelled L A N D S L I D E!
84 posted on 11/04/2012 7:51:41 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: conservativepoet

I’m not sure whether the biased samples are due to the media trying to bias the polls or a systematic cause for non-response (Romney voters being more likely to hang up because they don’t want to talk to left-leaning pollsters). The strange effect of larger sample polls being more likely to tilt for Romney and smaller sample polls being more likely to tilt for Obama seems to be related, though I’m not sure I can come up with a good model of how.


85 posted on 11/04/2012 7:52:46 PM PST by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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To: Red Steel

+11 and it’s tied. Rofl.


86 posted on 11/04/2012 7:54:33 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Arthurio

My prediction is 0bama will get 43% of the popular vote.


87 posted on 11/04/2012 8:08:31 PM PST by ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton (Go Egypt on 0bama)
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To: ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton

43% would be awesome. I would definitely prefer it.

47% would be historic and hilarious/ heh


88 posted on 11/04/2012 8:09:39 PM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

“Why don’t we make it D+20 and be done with it so that I can stop even caring about the election?”

If they can’t give their guy a clear victory, at least they can make it appear it’s close so that more people will be tuned in to CNN on election night.


89 posted on 11/04/2012 8:17:39 PM PST by ari-freedom
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To: Arthurio

This footnote may explain the high democrat count

BASED ON 307 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 111 REGISTERED
VOTERS WHO DESCRIBED THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, FOR A TOTAL OF 418
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS—


90 posted on 11/04/2012 8:17:57 PM PST by Raycpa
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To: tcrlaf

Setting up the Republican and Romney stole the election”look there at the polls”. That is the only logical conclusion. They are setting us up for Democrat Gotterdamerung.


91 posted on 11/04/2012 8:18:31 PM PST by crazydad (-` sd)
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To: CatOwner

That is true.


92 posted on 11/04/2012 8:48:36 PM PST by PghBaldy
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To: Jet Jaguar
As my tagline reads: The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.

We (Tea Party) are still here. We are mad as hell. We will win this.


Recommended e-mail for Chrissy Matthews, Ed Schultz, Rachel Madcow, et al, on the morning of Nov 7, 2012:

"See those gutters running ankle-deep with the blood of slaughtered Democrats? That's the handiwork of the Tea Party that you thought was dead and gone.

"This morning, there are XXX (insert alarmingly large number here) Democrats, including the soon-to-be former President, lying slaughtered on the electoral battlefield.

"If any of them were intellectually honest, all of these defeated Democrats would say that the Tea Party kicked the ever-livin' sh*t out of them, and that they all badly underestimated the Tea Party.

"The Tea Party is stronger than Jay Carney's hubris, more powerful than than the force Bob Beckel's belly exerts on his belt, and even more powerful than Rachel Madcow's jaws.

"Your tingling leg, Chrissy, as well as your callow cries of racism, are no match for the tens of millions of concerned citizens comprising the Tea Party.

"And now you know just how powerless you are in comparison to them.

"We, the Tea Party, just thought you'd like to know these facts, so that you may accurately report them, pal."
93 posted on 11/04/2012 9:00:55 PM PST by Milton Miteybad (I am Jim Thompson. {Really.})
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To: Arthurio

Where do you get +11% dem?


94 posted on 11/04/2012 9:06:13 PM PST by GLDNGUN
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To: Milton Miteybad

Time Magazine never even considered the TEA party as a person of the year in 2010.

Biggest electoral shift in 90 years.

Big deal. Whoop.


95 posted on 11/04/2012 9:10:06 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Jet Jaguar

So we have to rub their recalcitrant little noses in it on November 6. If that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do. ;-)


96 posted on 11/04/2012 9:17:03 PM PST by Milton Miteybad (I am Jim Thompson. {Really.})
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To: Milton Miteybad

Oh, I will.

:0)


97 posted on 11/04/2012 9:18:05 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: GLDNGUN

“693 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”

Page 29

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf


98 posted on 11/04/2012 9:23:20 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: ConservativeInPA

Heck, 3 of the 4 major papers in New York City endorsed Romney, plus the weekly NY Observer. Only the NY Times endorsed Obama. The NY Post is solidly Conservative, but all the others switched from Obama to Romney this election.

Suburban Long Island has a ton of people, and after Sandy, they’re not too keen on how big government handles a crisis. Upstate NY is Conservative, and a lot of people in New York City won’t be voting because of Sandy.

So add NY to your list of states in play!


99 posted on 11/04/2012 9:51:21 PM PST by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: ConservativeInPA

Heck, 3 of the 4 major papers in New York City endorsed Romney, plus the weekly NY Observer. Only the NY Times endorsed Obama. The NY Post is solidly Conservative, but all the others switched from Obama to Romney this election.

Suburban Long Island has a ton of people, and after Sandy, they’re not too keen on how big government handles a crisis. Upstate NY is Conservative, and a lot of people in New York City won’t be voting because of Sandy.

So add NY to your list of states in play!


100 posted on 11/04/2012 9:51:21 PM PST by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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