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Politico/GWU/Battleground Poll - O49/R48 w/leaners (BRIT HUME WAS WRONG!)
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html ^ | Oct 29, 1012

Posted on 10/28/2012 11:21:51 PM PDT by profit_guy

On Fox News Sunday, Brit Hume said the poll would show Romney +5. He was very wrong.

(Excerpt) Read more at images.politico.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; panic; skyisfalling
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To: Nervous Tick

“Especially this guy.....Check out his posting record. You **never** find him posting threads......That’s EXTREMELY disingenuous, profit_guy. Despicable!”

What they hell is the matter with you?! I have posted my conservative viewpoints here for years!, as per my stats: “You’ve posted a total of 77 threads and 513 replies.”

SO, let me get this straight, because I posted a poll that concerns me, that I must be a troll?!?!....you’re “Despicable!”

...and well i truly hope this poll is wrong (or a forgery as two people on here have suggested), if it turns out to be correct, you owe me an apology


51 posted on 10/29/2012 1:21:28 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I just checked over at the DU, and they’ve been watching this thread and are laughing about your “concerns”. Just FYI.


52 posted on 10/29/2012 1:23:01 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: profit_guy

I assume you got your 49/48 numbers from page 5 of the link you provided. I’m not sure how the Battlefield folks determine their final reported poll results, but what they report almost never matches the raw data from their poll results. It is often close, but never the same. I’m sure they adjust for whatever weighting they determine is accurate based on other factors in their raw data. Wait and see what their actual commentary for the poll is before losing too much sleep.


53 posted on 10/29/2012 1:25:23 AM PDT by Rokke (www.therightreasons.net)
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To: profit_guy

Ah, taking hysterical flak. I’m over the target.


54 posted on 10/29/2012 1:31:27 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: Nervous Tick

LOL! FR is quite precious....


55 posted on 10/29/2012 1:34:55 AM PDT by eyedigress ((zOld storm chaser from the west)/?)
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To: profit_guy

>> you owe me an apology

Hey, no problem! I won’t even wait until we find out you’re wrong; I’ll give it to you right now.

I am truly sorry that profit_guy is a despicable concern troll who posts dodgy polls, and presents misleading data in an attempt to lie about the reliability of the polling company that produces said dodgy results.

I am furthermore genuinely sorry that profit_guy delights in maximizing negativity and anxiety on Free Republic, because the (mostly) fine conservative men and women here deserve better.

There... is that accceptable?


56 posted on 10/29/2012 1:36:20 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: Nervous Tick; fortheDeclaration; Arthurio

“Check out his posting record. You **never** find him posting threads, or even comments, on the Romney +5 polls...He only shows up on the “obama is ahead” poll threads, where he can troll his anxiety bait past the school...That’s EXTREMELY disingenuous, profit_guy. Despicable!”

Here are but a FEW examples you would have come across had you did some research before you made assinine accusations:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2951533/posts?page=25#25 (see post #25)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2941635/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2942270/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2946833/posts

...additionally because I am a Rasmussen subscriber, I often post his internals in here for all to see...so next time do a little bit of research


57 posted on 10/29/2012 1:40:56 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: Nervous Tick

Nervous Tick; fortheDeclaration; Arthurio

Here’s a few more:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2947393/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2941087/posts (posts 42, 48)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2941461/posts
(posts 13, 14, 15)

Yeah, I sound like a real troll.


58 posted on 10/29/2012 1:53:33 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I dunno... the exceptions prove the rule?

If you’re not a troll why don’t you...

a) Stop being a bedwetter and think/act/speak positively about RR’s chances for a change?
b) Stop posting that misleading graphic that you use to infer Battleground’s precision when it does no such thing? That REALLY infuriates me, and although you were called on it earlier, you have yet to explain why you posted that lie.

Just sayin’.


59 posted on 10/29/2012 2:05:48 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: All
Politico has updated:

Politico Batleground

60 posted on 10/29/2012 2:09:37 AM PDT by BushMeister ("We are a nation that has a government - not the other way around." --Ronald Reagan)
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To: profit_guy

I think Romney is going to win. But it is way too early to gloat. People need to stop assuming it is already won.

The history of elections show anything can happen.


61 posted on 10/29/2012 2:09:46 AM PDT by I still care (I miss my friends, bagels, and the NYC skyline - but not the taxes. I love the South.)
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To: I still care

No candidate who is leading a week out from Election Day has ever lost.

The MSM will keep it a horse race until the end of the week. We may not see Romney break away until the last moment.

In 1980, the race remained tight up to the very last day.


62 posted on 10/29/2012 2:19:42 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Nervous Tick

Did you even bother to open the 7 links I posted above, and look at my comments?? HARDLY the comments of a troll! And again if you looked at those threads I started they are all positive, including the pictures I posted - so what’s this talk about “for a change”??

And you can call it ‘bedwetting’, but when a pollster I respect comes out with O+1 after Brit Hume and Numbersmuncher (a respected poll analyzer on Twitter) expected them to come out at R+5, yeah it shakes my confidence a bit. Just like yours would be shaken if Rasmussen and Gallup did the same this week.

And I was wrong to misinterpret that their final prediction (from the graphic) was based on their final polling result.

And you still owe me a genuine apology for accuse me of being a troll...Just sayin’.


63 posted on 10/29/2012 2:21:45 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: BushMeister

Well, I hope that Benghazi and especially the economy are going to swing those Battleground Poll numbers back to Romney. Wasn’t Bret Baier’s damning Benghazi coverage done AFTER the Battleground Poll was conducted (Oct 22-25)?


64 posted on 10/29/2012 2:28:53 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I left this comment at the site. I urge all of you to read the entire article on the Politico site and you will see the internals for Obama are devastating and the top line number showing him ahead by even 1 point are totally incomprehensible given the contributing data.

His job approval numbers are totally at odds with other pollsters at a level of 50& I cannot seem to find a description of the sample used to obtain the results shown. I suspect they are heavily weighted to a D+7-9 turnout.

LOL, a POLITICO/GWU commissioned poll? Are you serious?

I believe I will simply stick with BOTH Gallup AND Rasmussen (the MOST accurate of pollsters in the 2008 presidential and the 2010 midterm elections) which do DAILYTRACKING POLLS of likely voters in the battleground States and both of which have Romney up by 5 points.

Anyone capable of reading will note Romney leads in EVERY category of importance to voters including who can handle the economy better and who will be better at jobs creation. And Romney’s favorability ratings are now HIGHERB than Obama’s. The “likability” of Obama vs Romney was something the liberals were hanging their hats on because Obama has nothing else whatsoever to run on and now he has lost this.

From the above article:

“...the economy threatens to derail the president as much as ever: 54 percent overall disapprove of how he’s handled the most overwhelmingly important issue in the campaign. That’s the highest level since August. Nearly six in 10 disapprove of how the president is handling the budget and spending. And 56 percent believe the country is on the wrong track — 48 percent strongly so.

Romney is favored by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent, both on the questions of which candidate will better grow the economy and create more jobs. Significantly more strongly disapprove of Obama’s job performance, 44 percent, than strongly approve, 37 percent.

Among those who describe pocketbook issues as their top concern, which is 7 in 10 voters, Romney leads 56 to 41 percent.”

So although Romney leads in “likeability” as well as every category which is most important to the voters, we are nonetheless expected to believe they will vote for Obama. And the reason is......?

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82986_Page2.html#ixzz2Ag73415s


65 posted on 10/29/2012 2:38:04 AM PDT by Lacey2
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To: profit_guy
And you can call it ‘bedwetting’, but when a pollster I respect comes out with O+1 after Brit Hume and Numbersmuncher (a respected poll analyzer on Twitter) expected them to come out at R+5, yeah it shakes my confidence a bit.

The Battleground's polls internals have Romney 52-47 among likely voters. Romney +5.

The Obama 49-48 number was "all respondents". Meaningless.

66 posted on 10/29/2012 2:46:20 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: profit_guy

>> Did you even bother to open the 7 links I posted above, and look at my comments?? HARDLY the comments of a troll!

Yes, I did — all of them, twice, to be sure — and what leapt out at me is that there essentially ARE no comments from you on those threads. Neutral pictures, poll results, charts, etc. But not a single *personal comment* wherein you unequivocally state your *support* for Romney or your *opposition* to Obama. Nothing that indicates you’re doing ANYTHING but salting the forum with “a little stuff here and there” that might take the heat off.

That’s very strange for a true partisan — as you claim to be — on a political forum. VERY strange.

The closest you have come to stating a passionate personal view was actually in this OP; your unsolicited comment expresses near-GLEE that Brit Hume was wrong, and it caught my eye right away.

I also found quite a few (more than 7, for sure) of your posts that you DIDN’T use as an example, wherein you’re taking a pro-Romney poster to task, trying to shake the foundations of his positive position. Subtly — but unmistakeably.

Like I said, the exceptions prove the rule.

>> And you still owe me a genuine apology for accuse me of being a troll

Why would I apologize? I call ‘em like I see ‘em, and based on the evidence (including what YOU presented) I’m still 95% confident (+/- 3.5% MOE :-) ) that you’re a troll. Time will tell. Just like I’m not worried for RR, I’m not worried I’ll be proven wrong.


67 posted on 10/29/2012 2:46:42 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: profit_guy

New Poll Projects: Romney 52, Obama 47
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2951768/posts

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.


68 posted on 10/29/2012 2:51:33 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: profit_guy

The last iteration of this poll showed Romney up by 2%.... and now, after two weeks of revelations about Benghazi, 0bama leads by 1%?

Americans can be heartbreakingly idiotic.


69 posted on 10/29/2012 3:00:02 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: profit_guy

Now that we have the RIGHT poll, BRIT HUME WAS RIGHT!


70 posted on 10/29/2012 3:01:18 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: Nervous Tick

Well, you’re dead wrong. I am what pollsters would classify as a Strong Conservative. And I have 500+ comments and have started 77 threads on here that demonstrate that. And yeah in some of my recent comments on here I have asked people like LS and Ravi to help me understand things like how AB’s and In-Person voting work in OH. And by the way, I supported Romney in here before it was cool do do so, in fact I was attacked by several people in here during the Primaries for not going with Newt. But anyways, I don’t need to justify myself to you any longer, so I’d prefer not to interact with you any more. Bye.

P.S. Here’s hoping Romney wins because I truly believe he will fix things and will be President until 2020. And here’s hoping the GOP wins the Senate too.


71 posted on 10/29/2012 3:15:27 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: John W

Yes, and Ed Goeas’ commentary is very reassuring.


72 posted on 10/29/2012 3:16:58 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: ScottinVA

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2951768/posts

New Poll Projects: Romney 52, Obama 47
Weekly Standard ^

Posted on Monday, October 29, 2012 4:29:01 AM by Arthurio

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.


73 posted on 10/29/2012 3:24:59 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: profit_guy

Same poll shows Those extremely likely to vote Romney leads 53-44


74 posted on 10/29/2012 3:32:28 AM PDT by ballplayer
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To: profit_guy

Actually Brit was LOW..."but Romney leads 53% to 44% among those extremely likely to vote")

Battle ground poll

75 posted on 10/29/2012 3:47:33 AM PDT by The Wizard (Madam President is my President now and in the future)
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To: profit_guy

If you look at those MOST LIKELY to vote, Romney is WAY ahead.


76 posted on 10/29/2012 4:13:11 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: profit_guy

Yhis race is over and this is the reason
drip libya drip libya drip libya and barrys coverup did it.

That being said these polls do make for fun conversations


77 posted on 10/29/2012 4:36:05 AM PDT by italianquaker (I did my part, voted for Romney,donated and spread the word.)
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To: profit_guy

Hmmmm. The Battleground poll posted in a story on the Breaking News sidebar has Romney up 52-47.


78 posted on 10/29/2012 5:43:16 AM PDT by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: okie01

On another thread, it was stated that 0 was up 1 on *raw numbers*, only. Otherwise, Romney leads by 5.

0 predicted to win by +1? Within margin of error. Final prediction Romney +5, outside even the highest MOE.


79 posted on 10/29/2012 6:12:32 AM PDT by reformedliberal
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To: profit_guy
They are a very reputable polling firm which adds to my concern.

HUH?

Are you on Drugs?

Have you been drinking the Kool Aid?

Are you imbibing in adult beverages this early in the morning?

Politico and George Washington University are "REPUTABLE?"

Shirley you jest??????

80 posted on 10/29/2012 6:45:30 AM PDT by neveralib
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To: profit_guy
Hume was talking about the “vote election model,” that is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent.

Battleground also has a poll which shows O 49% R 48%.

One is a snapshot one is a projection.

81 posted on 10/29/2012 6:53:20 AM PDT by Mikey_1962 (Obama: The Affirmative Action President.)
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To: okie01

“...among likely voters. Romney +5”

That explains it!

I just saw this piece on the Weekly Standard

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

and I couldn’t figure out how that made sense, since I remembered this thread.


82 posted on 10/29/2012 7:45:24 AM PDT by jocon307
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To: jocon307

All wood ships usually do pretty good in a storm.


83 posted on 10/29/2012 7:48:20 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: profit_guy
What a foolish, foolish thing to say. These guys are HIGHLY respected Republican pollsters. Karl Rove speaks very highly of them too.

I don't care who does or says what. When you look at the internal numbers you realize what a joke the poll is. And I'll ask again...do you know the difference between a poll and a prediction?
84 posted on 10/29/2012 8:20:52 AM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: profit_guy

The voter Battleground projection model has the 52 Romeny to 47 Obama.

See here: http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html


85 posted on 10/29/2012 8:23:51 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: entropy12
I hate to disagree with your disagreement.

Anyone who thinks/votes for shortsightedness is moronic even if they game the system with their "cleverness". Their children and children's children will feel the wrath of their here in the now attitude, hence morons.

86 posted on 10/29/2012 8:34:34 AM PDT by rollo tomasi (Working hard to pay for deadbeats and corrupt politicians.)
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To: profit_guy
However I am concerned (as others here will be) that Brit Hume announced it on FNS today that it would show Romney +5, and it missed by 6 points (as it now shows Obama +1). I sure as hell hope I am worrying about nothing, but these guys have a solid track record over the last 5 Presidential elections:

As was pointed out previously, there's a difference between their "poll" and their "prediction" (the one you take as gospel). Their ridiculous "poll" does show Obama up by 1, but only when they include those who are only at least "somewhat likely" to vote and who are only at least "likely" to vote for Obama.

Their PREDICTION out today (no doubt the one Hume was referring to) is...(drumroll please)...ROMNEY 52 OBAMA 47...

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

Even they know a poll (even their own) showing Obama +1 is a joke.
87 posted on 10/29/2012 9:12:25 AM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: GLDNGUN

“And I’ll ask again...do you know the difference between a poll and a prediction?”

I assumed their prediction was based on their final polling numbers. I was wrong. Thanks for clearing it up for me.


88 posted on 10/29/2012 9:49:25 AM PDT by profit_guy
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Looks like Brit Hume is another one I can’t listen to anymore.


89 posted on 10/29/2012 10:05:42 AM PDT by japheth88 (NO BLACK PRESIDENT, CAN'T BE AMERICAN)
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