Skip to comments.Gallup: 2012 Electorate more Republican than 2004
Posted on 10/27/2012 9:56:44 AM PDT by GonzoII
In 2008, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters.
If these numbers are within even a few points of what this survey suggests, then Romney will win decisively and the GOP will pick up the Senate. We are likely standing on the edge of another GOP wave election.
(Excerpt) Read more at nation.foxnews.com ...
I keep thinking 2010 was not that far back... I say Romney 55+..I pray we get the Senate!
I pray it be so
Praying without ceasing.
Obozo’s performance is destroying his party!
Yes. All the numbers show that voter enthusiasm among the youth is way off.
There is no ‘Democrat’ party. 0bama, Pelosi and Reid have transformed the party into the Socialist party. This irks me no end; That they STILL call themselves Democrats! THEY AREN’T. I wish they’d STOP HIDING BEHIND THAT BOGUS LABEL.
I agree. Without early voting and absentee voting hardly ANYONE would show up for 0bama on election day and wait in line to vote for that scumbag.
10 more days!!! 10 more days!!!
If Romney gets anything north of 51%, we’ll have the Senate.
I’m expecting Romney to hit 53%, and I’ll go with a 55 seat majority for the GOP Senate.
That should undue some socialism.
Lieberman is not running for re-election.
The most likely candidate to abandon the Democrat party would be Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).
Well said! These corrupt aholes and their radical agenda are the reason there is total gridlock in Washington.
If the Senate is tied and Romney wins, Ryan becomes the tie-breaker as President of the Senate.
The one thing that I think will make this thing tighter than everyone is hoping is the “entitlement” crowd thinking they will lose their welfare checks, food stamps, Obama phones, etc. under a Romney administration. Add that to historic fraud, and I am afraid this thing is going to be a nail biter.
My swag at the overall vote has been 55% Romney and 40% O with 5% going to 3rd parties. No meat behind the swag but gut feelings and wishful thinking maybe because I do not want a close race, it needs to be define so that there are no mixed messages or open doors to angst. We will know for sure in about 10 days and a few hours...
Maybe he'll take all 57 states.
“Yes. All the numbers show that voter enthusiasm among the youth is way off.”
They want lives and careers too. They are getting tired of their parent’s basement and attic rooms. Some will have been permanently enlightened during this dark period. They will become more cautions and liberty oriented for life, both skeptical and fearful of statist overreaching. This depression will have alienated them from the Democrats for life. The Geriatric Old Plotters ought not be too smug about it though. Kinder, gentler compassionate statist left stances are not very appealing either.
The bottom line though, this Reid-Pelosi-Obama Democrat party will have permanently alienated many younger people, and probably the majority of those with any savvy or sophistication.
I will be enormously surprised if the third party vote exceeds more than 2% in any but the deepest blue or red states, and possibly not even there. In my county, most elections I see a huge number of “green” or “libertarian” noises. This year it is hard to find any presence of those.
There is still much gold to be mined in the hills of 2010.
I was just at my local TP elected Congresscritter. The same people are in there right now working the phones, while I was picking up signs, and arranging my schedule with them.
In addition to your observations, I believe that any young woman who sees that ‘make love with -bama by voting for him’ campaign ad more than a couple times is very likely to vote against him.
I wish I were versed in video production and could rapidly put together a counter-ad along the lines of “the first time didn’t turn out to be so hot for me”, associating it with -bama’s failure. Unfortunately, many of these youngsters know that for a fact themselves. Such an ad could be a devastating counter.
Just off the phone with my sister in Miami. She tried to early-vote but the line was astronomical and she wasn’t even able to park. She then drove around the Coral Gables neighborhoods and saw an ocean of Romney signs, completely the opposite of 2008. Get ready for a landslide!!
Though it seems like a hundred years ago it wasn’t.
Has ANYTHING made people more likely to vote Democrat than in 2010? Anything?
This is why I have been saying a landslide is coming as in 2010.
Is the ANYTHING which could stop you from voting short of death or hospitalization?
Maybe Pryor from Arkansas or Landreau from Louisiana. Heck, one of the Maine girls might even turn Republican.
Things have definitely been trending Romney’s way the last two weeks. His chances of winning are raising with each day. I do think to the polls are very fluid now due to the economy but most recently due to the Libya scandal that has more damaging revelations with each passing day.
I think that Romney will likely win but I would not rule out a landslide. A landslide against anything Obama is possible given how things are going.
Having written that, I urge all of you to continue to pray, volunteer, donate and pray!!
Actually, since the Senate organizes itself in early January, prior to the Presidental inauguration, the lame duck Joe Biden would get to be the tie breaker.
if we win this election then it should go down as the greatest victory in modern history.
We have had to fight the media and the street thugs machine, the massive name calling and immature acting.
People are now saying screw you media , sadly there are still millions out there who thinks the media does tell the truth or they;re just plain stupid and trust me I;ve met obama voters and talked to them and they have no idea what he stands for.
It is hard to tell you how excited that I am to hear your report of the FL voting enthusiasm. Must pray harder...
Afterwards, put out this full buffet spread:
Because we're going to need it watching the Left pointing fingers at why Obama lost.
only two obama yard signs in my county from what I have seen.
One is at a run down trailer park and the other is at a rented small house who is being rented ot a family from NY and have just moved in the summer, their two daughters are always in trouble at school, they are on welfare, free breakfast, lunch , food stamps and we know this because the youngest girl is always telling other kids proudly how her family does not pay for food.
Course it also might because of color because the older daughter was heard by one of my sons saying”oabma is one of us he;s a brother and we;ll defend him”
2%, Well that would be good but I do know several people that are most likely going to do such, vote 3rd party, who know what they will really do but that is the noise they are making and I have no doubt they will vote. Never the less 2% would be good because O would not get any of those other 3% of votes I would think. (that 3% is what is left from the 5% I was guessing would vote 3rd party).
Nice upgrade from the usual popcorn!
i may get flamed for this - but i am more pumped for Romney Ryan than any election in my lifetime. I am 37 and have been voting since Bob Dole ran in 1996 which was my first vote.
Romney Ryan to me is the best ticket we have fielded yet in terms of sheer competency presentation and intelligence.
Could W, McCain, Dole, GHWB, have utterly immasculated Obama like Romney did and has so far? NO!!!!
Me too. I have gone from ABO to Pro-RR. They need our prayers.
We need to rid ourselves of this communist filth and make the hard choices to get back on track
Lieberman is retiring, it's his seat that McMahon is battling for.
I am as masculine, testosterone driven, as filled with rage anger and disgust w obama as anyone, but if we win this, i want a huge Free Republic GROUP HUG!!!!!
These last 4 years have been HELL!
got that right.
If we get this it will go down in the histyory books, we fought the most corrupt admin, the most biased media and a large part of a population who were to dumb to understand that they are supporting socialism, wanted their food stamps as if their lived depended on it and part of a population which voted on color and yet were against the homosexual agenda.
Maybe not.....but all you're really saying with comparison is that he's the tallest midget. Talk about damning with faint praise! Hank
What I am saying is that Romney has done mostly likely what the others could not have.
I didn't want to sound overconfident lest we get complacent!!
But go ahead and throw Ca. and Minn. in there and we'll have that big "57" sweep....;0)
Lieberman won’t be in the Senate in 2013; he did not run in 2012.
Pryor and Landrieu are from historically Democrat families and as loyal to “democracy” as Obama himself.
I don’t know when Mary is up again but Pryor is also a survivor. I can’t quite work out the logistics of a switch by him but he will be desperate to paint himself as a moderate.