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Romney, Obama could split popular and electoral college vote, polls suggest
Washington Post ^

Posted on 10/26/2012 6:41:23 PM PDT by Arthurio

Most polls at this moment suggest GOP nominee Mitt Romney is in the lead nationally, but surveys in the nine or so swing states are registering a narrow advantage for President Obama.

So here’s a prospect worth contemplating: What if Romney carries the popular vote, but Obama regains the presidency by winning 270 votes or more in the electoral college?

“I think it’s a 50/50 possibility — or more,” said Mark McKinnon, who was a political strategist for former president George W. Bush.

“If the election were held tomorrow, it wouldn’t just be a possibility, it would be actual,” added William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who also served as a policy adviser to former president Bill Clinton.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


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To: Arthurio
Gore lost in 2000 with a .5% popular vote advantage
Cleveland lost in 1888 with a .8% popular vote advantage
But Tilden lost in 1876 with a 3.1% popular vote advantage

So it's certainly precedented and possible to lose the EC with a 2-3% popular vote advantage but if Gallup has R/R up 5% (which means 6 or 7% after undecideds decide) it's hard to picture it ending split. Those votes have to come from somewhere, if not Ohio.
21 posted on 10/26/2012 7:34:44 PM PDT by RagingBull (Talent does what it can; genius does what it must)
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To: Arthurio

How many different posts have you made today about this idiotic liberal fantasy?


22 posted on 10/26/2012 7:35:12 PM PDT by Iowegian
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To: RagingBull

That 1876 election was an odd one. Hayes won by a single electoral vote in an election where 20 EVs were disputed after Election Day and ended up being formally awarded to Hayes after a court battle.


23 posted on 10/26/2012 7:42:16 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: tatown
Winning California with only 53% of the vote is one of the those things that, in isolation, would tend to produce the EV victory for Obama in the face of PV defeat -- a million "wasted" votes vs. 2008.

However, I'd think you'd have correlation for Colorado, Nevada and perhaps New Mexico as that kind of titanic shift would imply a big change in the allegiance of educated whites and the enthusiasm of Latinos.

Wouldn't mean that much for the Midwest or Pennsylvania, where it's blue collar whites who are up for grabs and the African Americans whose enthusiasm is vital.
24 posted on 10/26/2012 7:55:48 PM PDT by only1percent
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To: only1percent; tatown

The issue is that only a small part of the country was subjected to the negative anti Romney barrage over the summer. If he loses there, but does much better than expected in states like CA, PA, CT, etc. .(but still falls short), that’s how you’d end up with a split.

Historically speaking, the odds of a split are low.


25 posted on 10/26/2012 8:11:30 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio
Every modern president to be re-elected — Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush — has gotten a bigger share of the vote in their second bid for office than their first...

I wonder why they didn't use Clinton's first name here? BTW, William Jefferson Clinton NEVER got 50% of the vote.

26 posted on 10/26/2012 8:12:53 PM PDT by libertylover (The problem with Obama is not that his skin is too black, it's that his ideas are too RED.)
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To: libertylover
BTW, William Jefferson Clinton NEVER got 50% of the vote.

I meant in his two presidential elections.

27 posted on 10/26/2012 8:14:43 PM PDT by libertylover (The problem with Obama is not that his skin is too black, it's that his ideas are too RED.)
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To: Arthurio
I've been thinking lately that Romney will win the popular vote and O will win the electoral college...resulting in GOP heads exploding and a successful move to repeal the electoral college sponsored by the GOP and aided by the Dims..
28 posted on 10/26/2012 8:31:26 PM PDT by montanajoe (Blamed Flamed Shamed didn't vote for R/R or O/B)
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To: Arthurio
Utter nonsense.
29 posted on 10/26/2012 8:37:31 PM PDT by Nuc 1.1 (Nuc 1 Liberals aren't Patriots. Remember 1789!)
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To: Arthurio

If Romney wins the popular vote. He gets CA’s electors. With those he wins the EC vote as well I’d bet.

This will send Zero and co running to the courts to get CA’s system over turned.

But it won’t matter. Romney will carry both the popular and ec votes.


30 posted on 10/26/2012 8:55:16 PM PDT by cableguymn (The founding fathers would be shooting by now..)
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To: Arthurio

Clinging to their delusions.


31 posted on 10/26/2012 8:56:22 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Arthurio

I agree about a split, but it will be about 57/42/1 and the EC votes will be Romney 300+.


32 posted on 10/27/2012 8:27:10 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Arthurio

Just scare talk. Not gonna happen. I predict 1 hour after the polls close Romney will be declared the winner. We are having the sister and brother in law over for Costco pizza and some two buck chuck to watch Chris Matthews commit suicide on MSNBC. LOL!!!!


33 posted on 10/27/2012 8:58:40 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: only1percent
College educated whites, and especially college educated white men, vote Republican. This is especially true outside of the coastal hives.

Look across the river in New Jersey, where college educated whites dominate (Hunterdon, Monmouth, Morris) Romney won. He lost the ethnic Asian and Jewish suburbs in Bergen and Middlesex, along with the blue collar white suburbs near Philadelphia (so much for blue collar white Catholics being "natural conservatives").

College educated single women and Asians are a problem, however, although the latter are overwhelmingly concentrated in Cali, Hawaii, NY, NJ, etc. Yuppie/hipster whites may be a common site in New Brooklyn and Portland, but are a tiny minority of the white electorate as a whole. The Democratic share of the white vote is shrinking, not growing. We needto see how we can get more whites in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and PA to vote GOP.

34 posted on 11/25/2012 3:58:45 PM PST by Clemenza ("History, I believe, furnishes no example of a priest-ridden people maintaining a free civil governm)
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