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Romney, Obama could split popular and electoral college vote, polls suggest
Washington Post ^

Posted on 10/26/2012 6:41:23 PM PDT by Arthurio

Most polls at this moment suggest GOP nominee Mitt Romney is in the lead nationally, but surveys in the nine or so swing states are registering a narrow advantage for President Obama.

So here’s a prospect worth contemplating: What if Romney carries the popular vote, but Obama regains the presidency by winning 270 votes or more in the electoral college?

“I think it’s a 50/50 possibility — or more,” said Mark McKinnon, who was a political strategist for former president George W. Bush.

“If the election were held tomorrow, it wouldn’t just be a possibility, it would be actual,” added William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who also served as a policy adviser to former president Bill Clinton.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
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1 posted on 10/26/2012 6:41:28 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Landslide. The split thing went in the toilet about 6 months ago.


2 posted on 10/26/2012 6:43:42 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Osama bin Laden is dead, Chrysler moved to Italy and China.)
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To: Arthurio

I gotta say that I would be getting a full 8 hrs of sleep (rather than 6) if the state polls looked just a tiny bit better. :0)


3 posted on 10/26/2012 6:45:16 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: Arthurio

I don’t think this will happen.

In fact I think it may be more likely that Obama could win the popular vote due to states like California going overwhelmingly for him and then losing the electoral college

That said. I think Romney wins about 52% or more of the popular vote.


4 posted on 10/26/2012 6:45:47 PM PDT by Fai Mao
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To: Arthurio

It’s all slipping away for Obama....so they are holding onto this, for now. It’s amazing how many people in the media don’t know how to break down the internals in a poll, or do not want to.


5 posted on 10/26/2012 6:48:19 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: Fai Mao

I just saw a CA poll released today that has Obama at 53%.


6 posted on 10/26/2012 6:48:39 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: Arthurio

Hooray for made up crap stories! I’ll go with the landside thing.


7 posted on 10/26/2012 6:49:15 PM PDT by inkfarmer
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To: Arthurio

The undecideds will break for Mitt here in the next week. Rove said Romney would be tied in Ohio this past week and take the lead this upcoming. He was right so far.


8 posted on 10/26/2012 6:50:46 PM PDT by NoobRep
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To: Arthurio
They must be drinking this stuff morning, noon and night.



Romney wins 300+ Electoral votes and wins the popular vote.
9 posted on 10/26/2012 6:51:49 PM PDT by Fpimentel
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To: Arthurio

It is not likely to happen, but if it does there are remedies to ensure that Romeny wins the election.


10 posted on 10/26/2012 6:52:50 PM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: Arthurio

This is just the final media gyrations to keep the people engaged. All these stories of a 269/269 tie, Harry Reid as VP, and all sorts of highly unlikely scenarios are all they have left to keep it interesting. Given where we are, with serious Romney momentum and a flailing Democrat campaign, it is unlikely the popular vote and electoral vote are split. Possible, but unlikely.

No, this election is not over, because Ohio is undecided, and other states pivotal to Romney to win despite Ohio are close, too. Assuming an undecided break to the challenger (which is near gospel among true experts), Romney would likely win if the election was today. Either way, I don’t expect a split...if Romney gets the kind of popular vote percentage it shows, there is almost no way he would not win the EV, too. If Obama is able to win the EV, it probably means their GOTV is highly successful and the popular vote goes too.


11 posted on 10/26/2012 6:53:04 PM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: Arthurio
Romney, Obama could split popular and electoral college vote, polls suggest

And monkeys might fly out of my butt...

12 posted on 10/26/2012 6:56:31 PM PDT by wireman
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To: Arthurio

More circle jerk fantasy by Obama fans in the media. Look, six or eight weeks ago they told us Obama was a shoo in.

Now they’re facing the fact that their hero Zero is tanking. Momentum for the Liar is going down faster than a two dollar crack whore, and they cannot handle it.


13 posted on 10/26/2012 6:57:02 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Arthurio
the nine or so swing states are registering a narrow advantage for President Obama.

..for someone so specific about a "split" he sure isn't sure about the "or so" states

14 posted on 10/26/2012 7:01:24 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: Arthurio

Folks, if this Libya thing keeps growing the only AllRed that we’ll be talking about on Nov. 7th may not relate to Gloria.


15 posted on 10/26/2012 7:04:02 PM PDT by struggle (http://killthegovernment.wordpress.com/)
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To: Arthurio
I think the "East of the Hudson River, West of La Cienaga Boulevard" crowd is going to find out the power of Romney's appeal in flyover country; this will result in a landslide win for Romney.

(For those who don't know, La Cienaga Boulevard is said by many to be the north-south "dividing line" between some of the richest parts of Los Angeles County to the west and everything else to the east. West of La Cienaga are the towns of Beverly Hills, the nearby Bel Air gated community, Westwood, Santa Monica, Culver City, Century City, West Los Angeles, Brentwood, Marina del Rey and Malibu--the home of many entertainment celebrities and entertainment executives. It's also among the most "blue" areas of California, despite the extreme wealth of the area.)

16 posted on 10/26/2012 7:05:44 PM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: Fai Mao

Lol-—except Obama way down in CA. . . For a lib. He’s barely carrying Oregon.


17 posted on 10/26/2012 7:10:00 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

He won Oregon 57-40 last time. If Oregon is within 5 points, he will be crushed nationwide.


18 posted on 10/26/2012 7:16:50 PM PDT by wideawake
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To: struggle
Folks, if this Libya thing keeps growing the only AllRed that we’ll be talking about on Nov. 7th may not relate to Gloria.

With a "normal" media maybe, but as of today only Fox & ABC's Tapper are following the Libya fiasco/cover up. Look at NYT and WaPo sites, nary a mention.

19 posted on 10/26/2012 7:18:06 PM PDT by 1066AD
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To: wideawake

That certainly seems to be logical. Like everyone else, I’d probably call the election right now if we could get one solid poll lead in OH-—but that’s precisely why they won’t call OH. It’s all over when they do, not just th election but the need for pollsters.


20 posted on 10/26/2012 7:22:24 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Arthurio
Gore lost in 2000 with a .5% popular vote advantage
Cleveland lost in 1888 with a .8% popular vote advantage
But Tilden lost in 1876 with a 3.1% popular vote advantage

So it's certainly precedented and possible to lose the EC with a 2-3% popular vote advantage but if Gallup has R/R up 5% (which means 6 or 7% after undecideds decide) it's hard to picture it ending split. Those votes have to come from somewhere, if not Ohio.
21 posted on 10/26/2012 7:34:44 PM PDT by RagingBull (Talent does what it can; genius does what it must)
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To: Arthurio

How many different posts have you made today about this idiotic liberal fantasy?


22 posted on 10/26/2012 7:35:12 PM PDT by Iowegian
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To: RagingBull

That 1876 election was an odd one. Hayes won by a single electoral vote in an election where 20 EVs were disputed after Election Day and ended up being formally awarded to Hayes after a court battle.


23 posted on 10/26/2012 7:42:16 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: tatown
Winning California with only 53% of the vote is one of the those things that, in isolation, would tend to produce the EV victory for Obama in the face of PV defeat -- a million "wasted" votes vs. 2008.

However, I'd think you'd have correlation for Colorado, Nevada and perhaps New Mexico as that kind of titanic shift would imply a big change in the allegiance of educated whites and the enthusiasm of Latinos.

Wouldn't mean that much for the Midwest or Pennsylvania, where it's blue collar whites who are up for grabs and the African Americans whose enthusiasm is vital.
24 posted on 10/26/2012 7:55:48 PM PDT by only1percent
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To: only1percent; tatown

The issue is that only a small part of the country was subjected to the negative anti Romney barrage over the summer. If he loses there, but does much better than expected in states like CA, PA, CT, etc. .(but still falls short), that’s how you’d end up with a split.

Historically speaking, the odds of a split are low.


25 posted on 10/26/2012 8:11:30 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio
Every modern president to be re-elected — Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush — has gotten a bigger share of the vote in their second bid for office than their first...

I wonder why they didn't use Clinton's first name here? BTW, William Jefferson Clinton NEVER got 50% of the vote.

26 posted on 10/26/2012 8:12:53 PM PDT by libertylover (The problem with Obama is not that his skin is too black, it's that his ideas are too RED.)
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To: libertylover
BTW, William Jefferson Clinton NEVER got 50% of the vote.

I meant in his two presidential elections.

27 posted on 10/26/2012 8:14:43 PM PDT by libertylover (The problem with Obama is not that his skin is too black, it's that his ideas are too RED.)
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To: Arthurio
I've been thinking lately that Romney will win the popular vote and O will win the electoral college...resulting in GOP heads exploding and a successful move to repeal the electoral college sponsored by the GOP and aided by the Dims..
28 posted on 10/26/2012 8:31:26 PM PDT by montanajoe (Blamed Flamed Shamed didn't vote for R/R or O/B)
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To: Arthurio
Utter nonsense.
29 posted on 10/26/2012 8:37:31 PM PDT by Nuc 1.1 (Nuc 1 Liberals aren't Patriots. Remember 1789!)
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To: Arthurio

If Romney wins the popular vote. He gets CA’s electors. With those he wins the EC vote as well I’d bet.

This will send Zero and co running to the courts to get CA’s system over turned.

But it won’t matter. Romney will carry both the popular and ec votes.


30 posted on 10/26/2012 8:55:16 PM PDT by cableguymn (The founding fathers would be shooting by now..)
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To: Arthurio

Clinging to their delusions.


31 posted on 10/26/2012 8:56:22 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Arthurio

I agree about a split, but it will be about 57/42/1 and the EC votes will be Romney 300+.


32 posted on 10/27/2012 8:27:10 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Arthurio

Just scare talk. Not gonna happen. I predict 1 hour after the polls close Romney will be declared the winner. We are having the sister and brother in law over for Costco pizza and some two buck chuck to watch Chris Matthews commit suicide on MSNBC. LOL!!!!


33 posted on 10/27/2012 8:58:40 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: only1percent
College educated whites, and especially college educated white men, vote Republican. This is especially true outside of the coastal hives.

Look across the river in New Jersey, where college educated whites dominate (Hunterdon, Monmouth, Morris) Romney won. He lost the ethnic Asian and Jewish suburbs in Bergen and Middlesex, along with the blue collar white suburbs near Philadelphia (so much for blue collar white Catholics being "natural conservatives").

College educated single women and Asians are a problem, however, although the latter are overwhelmingly concentrated in Cali, Hawaii, NY, NJ, etc. Yuppie/hipster whites may be a common site in New Brooklyn and Portland, but are a tiny minority of the white electorate as a whole. The Democratic share of the white vote is shrinking, not growing. We needto see how we can get more whites in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and PA to vote GOP.

34 posted on 11/25/2012 3:58:45 PM PST by Clemenza ("History, I believe, furnishes no example of a priest-ridden people maintaining a free civil governm)
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