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Oregon Poll: 0 47%, R 42%
Hoffman Research ^

Posted on 10/26/2012 6:16:32 PM PDT by Arthurio

On Wednesday October 24th and Thursday October 25, 2012, The Hoffman

Research Group surveyed a cross section of Oregon voters to ascertain voter preferences in the 2012 Presidential election.

The resulting data found President Barack Obama currently leading Governor Mitt Romney by a 47% to 42% margin.

When pushed, undecided voters broke toward Mitt Romney almost 2 to 1.

The random sample of 615 Oregon voters surveyed 42% Democrats, 34%

Republicans and 24% Unaffiliated voters. The statistical margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 3.9%. Attention was given to Oregon’s rural or urban divide and maintained appropriate balances with regard to party, gender and age within seven geographic regions.

The Hoffman Research Group, a division of Gateway Communications Inc. has been measuring the views and opinions of Oregonians since 1984.

Of those who have voted: 47% Republican Mitt Romney 47% Democrat Barack Obama 6% Neither Candidate / Refused

(Excerpt) Read more at media.oregonlive.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Oregon
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bluestates; or2012; oregon
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1 posted on 10/26/2012 6:16:35 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

That is very interesting. O’Bumbler polls at only 47% in OR. There is that number again, 47% where have I heard that before?


2 posted on 10/26/2012 6:19:59 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Arthurio

A D+8 sample in Oregon?

Maybe not an unrealistic sampling for this blue state...

Anyone from Oregon can verify this?


3 posted on 10/26/2012 6:20:05 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Arthurio

Obama’s down 5 points on a D+9 poll??? In a BLUE state? Bwahaha!!!!


4 posted on 10/26/2012 6:20:15 PM PDT by ObozoMustGo2012
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To: Arthurio

So, a +8 Dem poll when at best it should probably be +2 which makes Romney up by +1


5 posted on 10/26/2012 6:20:18 PM PDT by Fai Mao (Genius at Large)
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To: ObozoMustGo2012

**Sorry, I mean ROMNEY’s down 5...


6 posted on 10/26/2012 6:21:05 PM PDT by ObozoMustGo2012
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To: Arthurio

I spent the week working in southern Oregon. If it weren’t for Portland and college hippies in places like Ashland, this state would be all R. Portland just runs that state.

But it does make a person feel good that there are people in parts of Oregon that are as strongly opposed to this garbage as I am. The clients I worked with were virulent anti-Obama to a person.


7 posted on 10/26/2012 6:21:28 PM PDT by NoobRep
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To: Arthurio

Assuming all these blue state polls are accurate, I don’t see how Obama, while losing a lot of support, is equaling (or bettering) his ‘08 Ohio showing. Something doesn’t jive here.


8 posted on 10/26/2012 6:21:52 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: NoobRep

Born and lived in OR for most of my life and everywhere that isn’t Portland, Eugene, and Bend is VERY conservative.


9 posted on 10/26/2012 6:23:39 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: NoobRep

If it weren’t for wacky Portland, we wouldn’t have Portlandia!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FE_9CzLCbkY&feature=player_embedded


10 posted on 10/26/2012 6:24:35 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think that’s probably right for OR.


11 posted on 10/26/2012 6:32:09 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

Obama would fit right in at the Portlandia feminist bookstore.


12 posted on 10/26/2012 6:40:23 PM PDT by Snake65
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To: NoobRep
If it weren’t for Portland and college hippies in places like Ashland, this state would be all R. Portland just runs that state.

The same is true for Washington State. If you remove the Seattle metropolitan area from the mix the state is conservative.

13 posted on 10/26/2012 6:51:10 PM PDT by Katiana Kalashnikova
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To: Katiana Kalashnikova
Totally true! I guess the Cascades keep the liberal feces fog on the coastlines.

For some reason this holds true for WA, Oregon, and California.

Something about the mountains stops the liberalism from spreading eastward in these states.

14 posted on 10/26/2012 6:58:41 PM PDT by boop (I weary of the chase. Wait for me. I shall be merciful and quick. ...)
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To: Arthurio

600 in the poll, a +8 Dem sample and an error of 4%! This isn’t a poll, it’s reading tea leaves!


15 posted on 10/26/2012 7:10:00 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Arthurio

Tied amoung those that already voted...wtf


16 posted on 10/26/2012 7:24:51 PM PDT by IsaacDian
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To: SeekAndFind

The Oregon senate IIRC is +1 Republican and the house is split down the middle. (somebody correct me if I’m wrong) The last Governors race had a very poor R candidate. With Romney’s coattails, this could be a very close election in OR.

With the vote by mail fraud factored in I still think Obama wins, but hopefully the US house will pick up 1 or 2 more Reps from Oregon. Only a couple more weeks till we all find out.......


17 posted on 10/26/2012 7:33:29 PM PDT by Tailback
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To: Jim from C-Town

And the sample had to include 42 percent Democrat turnout to get that result. Is that what is to be expected come November in Oregon?


18 posted on 10/26/2012 7:59:15 PM PDT by JerseyDvl (Cogito Ergo Doleo Soetoro, ABO and of course FUBO!)
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To: Arthurio

This is the state Rush keeps throwing out there. I wonder if there is some serious inside info there? For a rep to win a state like that you would have to be low key. Can’t wake up the big city/college loons and let them know it’s competitive.


19 posted on 10/26/2012 8:08:31 PM PDT by sharkshooting
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To: Arthurio

If Gary Johnson wants some recognition, siphoning off a bunch of pothead votes from Zero in OR is a perfect opportunity. I hope he can make a campaign stop or 2 up there. Ditto for the Green Party candidate.


20 posted on 10/26/2012 8:12:59 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: boop

It must be the coastal humidity, that causes mold to grow in many people’s brains.


21 posted on 10/26/2012 8:15:38 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: tatown
Lifetime Oregonian here. It's amazing how much people who live in Portland pay in taxes, they have city taxes, trimet taxes, property tax.. I just wonder how long people who live there will keep voting democrat knowing that each time they do their taxes go up.

In my suburban neighborhood I’m seeing 10-1 signs for Romney, the Obama signs are old from the previous election.

I just pray a geometric change will happen in OR!

22 posted on 10/26/2012 8:16:42 PM PDT by Coffee_drinker (The best defense is a strong preemptive strike.)
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To: Fai Mao

2008, Oregon was 36/27/37 (D/R/I)
2004, Oregon was 32/34/34 (D/R/I)

Independents backed Kerry 58-40 in 2004. In Portland, most unaffiliated voters register that way because they think the Democratic Party is too conservative.


23 posted on 10/26/2012 9:07:46 PM PDT by lgwdnbdgr
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To: sharkshooting
I live here and am connected, somewhat, and there is some inside info here..... Internals look good! Not sure if Rommney will pull it out, but it is VERY possible. Do NOT forget that Bush only lost here in 2000 by 0.5%.

You do realize that this poll is stating that if the undecideds break 2:1 this state is in a DEAD HEAT!!!!

24 posted on 10/26/2012 9:23:14 PM PDT by Anti-Hillary (Barry, Barry quite contrary, how does your government grow?...)
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To: Arthurio

BamBam has been running tv ads since the convention. Not one Romney ad.


25 posted on 10/26/2012 9:42:18 PM PDT by Veggie Todd (2012 will be the last constitutional US presidential election.)
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To: Arthurio
When pushed, undecided voters broke toward Mitt Romney almost 2 to 1.

THAT is the money-line of the article. There have been theories and studies about how undecideds break come time to grow a pair and make a decision. They don't always break for the challenger, but here we have good evidence that it will be the case this year.

Romney may not win Oregon even if the undecideds do break 2-1 for him, but if that trend holds nationally...we will be in for a landslide. Being an Oregonian I pray that Romney does carry the state even though he probably won't need it (and shouldn't count on it). We have a MAIL-IN ONLY election. That's right...you CAN'T go to the "polls" on election day in Oregon. There are no "polls" to go to. I think that probably favors the parasites who get their ballot along with their gubmint check in the mail, and we all know who they vote for.
26 posted on 10/26/2012 9:46:15 PM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: Anti-Hillary

I’ve lived in Oregon for the last 35 years and currently reside in Bend. Sadly this state will remain blue due to the major liberal I-5 corridor cities of Portland, Salem, Eugene & Ashland. You’ll have 30 counties vote for Romney and 7 vote for Obama and Obama will win by 7-10%.


27 posted on 10/26/2012 9:51:36 PM PDT by happydogx2 (How about the dyslexic agnostic insomniac who stays up all night wonders if there really is a dog...)
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To: Katiana Kalashnikova

Yup. I used to live in Bellingham and it was heaven for me. Socially though, it was as dead as obama’s honor.


28 posted on 10/26/2012 9:54:54 PM PDT by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: Arthurio; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll Ping. Oregon.


29 posted on 10/26/2012 9:55:42 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Obama won the Independants by 23% in Oregon. According to this survey he is underwater again.


30 posted on 10/26/2012 10:00:23 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: lgwdnbdgr

Obama won the Independants by 23% in Oregon. According to this survey he is underwater again.


31 posted on 10/26/2012 10:01:18 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Not from Oregon but, CNN 2008 exit poll was D+9 and likely oversampled dems as do most exit polls. Interestingly the breakdown of sex was 50:50.


32 posted on 10/26/2012 10:02:20 PM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: Katiana Kalashnikova

“If it weren’t for Portland and college hippies in places like Ashland, this state would be all R. Portland just runs that state.”
“The same is true for Washington State. If you remove the Seattle metropolitan area from the mix the state is conservative. “

The same is true in EVERY state. Just a few urban counties, either in NY, IL, WA, or MD, PA or MI, or NV, or even CA, makes the state Democrat and liberal. Remove the College towns, capital city, and mega-cities, and this country would be 2-to-1 Republican.


33 posted on 10/26/2012 10:02:48 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: Bigjimslade

Almost forgot. Indies were 37% in 2008 exit polls. Seems this poll might not be showing enough indies.


34 posted on 10/26/2012 10:05:04 PM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: Arthurio; AuH2ORepublican; Perdogg; justiceseeker93; Political Junkie Too; LS; Clintonfatigued; ...

Early voters in Oregon have gone 47-47 so far according to this poll.

This early voting is very interesting.


35 posted on 10/26/2012 10:05:46 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Bigjimslade

cross tabs?


36 posted on 10/26/2012 10:09:00 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: happydogx2
Just to correct you. I live in Marion County (Salem) and we vote conservative 80% of the time. Please do not lump us in with the rest of the I-5 crazies!!!! This is a bastion of conservatism sandwiched in between liberal nutjobs!!
37 posted on 10/26/2012 10:11:30 PM PDT by Anti-Hillary (Barry, Barry quite contrary, how does your government grow?...)
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To: Impy

Is this a credible pollster?


38 posted on 10/26/2012 10:12:54 PM PDT by MitchellC (President Evil: Redistribution)
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To: Arthurio
Other interesting numbers from the internals...

Have you had a chance to vote yet?
34% Yes
66% No


Of those who have voted:
47% Republican Mitt Romney
47% Democrat Barack Obama


Hmmm...this shows who is fired up to vote and who is not. As we get closer to election day when Oregonians have to mail in their ballots by, more and more democrats may be too demoralized to bother voting, especially if the Libya fiasco continues to simmer, and if it looks like Obama is going to lose. There really aren't any other issues on the Oregon ballot that should get a liberal really excited to vote on and check Obama's name while they are at it. Even the "legalize pot" initiative may take votes away from Obama and go to Johnson.

(IF UNDECIDED) IF YOU ABSOLUTELY HAD TO CHOOSE TODAY, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR REPUBLICAN MITT ROMNEY OR DEMOCRAT BARACK OBAMA?

The undecided Republicans then say Romney over Obama 40% to ZERO%. You read that right, 40-0. The undecided Democrats split down the middle 21% each for Romney and Obama. The other 60% of undecided GOP voters and 58% dem voters refused to pick 1 or went with someone else. Also undecided "new voters" (haven't voted in any of last 4 elections) went for Romney over Obama 25% to ZERO%, with the other 75% remaining undecided or committed to someone else.

For some reason they asked this "undecided" group if they had already voted, and some said "yes"?! LOL Of those "undecided" voters who have already voted, they went for Obama 60%-40%. Buyers remorse? Stupidity to understand simple poll questions? All of the above? The undecided who haven't voted yet go for Romney 26%-9% with the rest refusing to pick between the two or picking someone else.
39 posted on 10/26/2012 10:16:42 PM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: MitchellC; AuH2ORepublican

I have never heard of them. They seem to be a local Oregon firm.

From google some democrats seem to think it’s a GOP outfit.


40 posted on 10/26/2012 10:30:27 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

Dagone it. Thanks to you and your link, I just wasted an hour of my life randomly surfing the web and reading about hipsterism. I feel so empty inside. :-)

But, seriously, that was a pretty funny video about Portland.


41 posted on 10/26/2012 11:18:29 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: Arthurio
Of those who have voted: 47% Republican Mitt Romney 47% Democrat Barack Obama 6% Neither Candidate / Refused

OR is the state where they only have mail in voting? That 2-1 Romney undecided vote would not be included in those who already voted.

42 posted on 10/26/2012 11:56:33 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it.)
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To: WOSG
Remove the ... mega-cities, and this country would be 2-to-1 Republican.

If we could have our way then, we could use a property qualification for voting. Like you must own at least an acre or two of land to vote. Not easy to get that reform passed, though. But keep it in mind.

43 posted on 10/27/2012 12:16:22 AM PDT by Hokestuk
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To: ObozoMustGo2012

I am from Bend, Oregon. I really expected more of a spread from my bastion of liberalism. I however, am slightly to the right of Genghis Khan and the son of a small lumber mill owner with an uncle who had 6000 acre cattle ranch. That should size up my leanings. Typically Oregon has gone blue do to the liberal demographics of the Portland metro / Multnomah county and Eugene area. Bend is the largest city east of the Cascades and has become increasingly “blue” due to trust fund baby infiltration. The rest of Oregon counties have traditionally been mostly red.


44 posted on 10/27/2012 12:36:39 AM PDT by Trapper6012
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To: Impy

Per Adrian Gray, witty a quarter million votes cast Rs up .01%-—were down over 7 in 08. Throw in a) ANY indies and/or advantage of D crossover v R crossover and at 5m total votes this, to me, looks like at least a 2% win AFTER subtracting D advantage in absentees. Anyone else got different math?


45 posted on 10/27/2012 3:18:19 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Impy

Per Adrian Gray, with a quarter million votes cast Rs up .01%-—were down over 7 in 08. Throw in a) ANY indies and/or advantage of D crossover v R crossover and at 5m total votes this, to me, looks like at least a 2% win AFTER subtracting D advantage in absentees. Anyone else got different math? (Remember, Ds come out of absentees w/ an 80k lead (vs over 200,000 in 08).


46 posted on 10/27/2012 3:21:12 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Sorry, I was talking about OH -—I know this is an OR thread but my reference was to he strength of early R voters.


47 posted on 10/27/2012 3:26:36 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Anti-Hillary

Unfortunately Marion County voted for Obama over McCain in 2008 -

http://www.co.marion.or.us/CO/elections/nov04-2008results.htm

Deschutes County (Bend) only had McCain over Obama by a couple of tenths of one percent so Deschutes wasn’t much better.

I will say this Anti-Hillary - we travel to Eugene every other week from Bend for business and we saw just one Obama sign the last time we went. In 2008 hopie-changie signs were everywhere. I find it hard to believe that this State would be nothing but a solid blue this time around even with the lack of enthusiasm. I’d love to be wrong though.


48 posted on 10/27/2012 4:53:05 AM PDT by happydogx2 (How about the dyslexic agnostic insomniac who stays up all night wonders if there really is a dog...)
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To: Katiana Kalashnikova

Why, OH WHY, do city dwellers have such a liberal herd mentality?


49 posted on 10/27/2012 6:20:30 AM PDT by a real Sheila (RYAN/romney 2012)
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To: 3Fingas

Then don’t check out Portlandia’s “Allergy pride parade.”

I live in a mini-Portland, Asheville, NC. Love to laugh at hipsters.


50 posted on 10/27/2012 7:19:58 AM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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