Posted on 10/26/2012 6:16:32 PM PDT by Arthurio
On Wednesday October 24th and Thursday October 25, 2012, The Hoffman
Research Group surveyed a cross section of Oregon voters to ascertain voter preferences in the 2012 Presidential election.
The resulting data found President Barack Obama currently leading Governor Mitt Romney by a 47% to 42% margin.
When pushed, undecided voters broke toward Mitt Romney almost 2 to 1.
The random sample of 615 Oregon voters surveyed 42% Democrats, 34%
Republicans and 24% Unaffiliated voters. The statistical margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 3.9%. Attention was given to Oregon’s rural or urban divide and maintained appropriate balances with regard to party, gender and age within seven geographic regions.
The Hoffman Research Group, a division of Gateway Communications Inc. has been measuring the views and opinions of Oregonians since 1984.
Of those who have voted: 47% Republican Mitt Romney 47% Democrat Barack Obama 6% Neither Candidate / Refused
(Excerpt) Read more at media.oregonlive.com ...
That is very interesting. O’Bumbler polls at only 47% in OR. There is that number again, 47% where have I heard that before?
A D+8 sample in Oregon?
Maybe not an unrealistic sampling for this blue state...
Anyone from Oregon can verify this?
Obama’s down 5 points on a D+9 poll??? In a BLUE state? Bwahaha!!!!
So, a +8 Dem poll when at best it should probably be +2 which makes Romney up by +1
**Sorry, I mean ROMNEY’s down 5...
I spent the week working in southern Oregon. If it weren’t for Portland and college hippies in places like Ashland, this state would be all R. Portland just runs that state.
But it does make a person feel good that there are people in parts of Oregon that are as strongly opposed to this garbage as I am. The clients I worked with were virulent anti-Obama to a person.
Assuming all these blue state polls are accurate, I don’t see how Obama, while losing a lot of support, is equaling (or bettering) his ‘08 Ohio showing. Something doesn’t jive here.
Born and lived in OR for most of my life and everywhere that isn’t Portland, Eugene, and Bend is VERY conservative.
If it weren’t for wacky Portland, we wouldn’t have Portlandia!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FE_9CzLCbkY&feature=player_embedded
I think that’s probably right for OR.
Obama would fit right in at the Portlandia feminist bookstore.
The same is true for Washington State. If you remove the Seattle metropolitan area from the mix the state is conservative.
For some reason this holds true for WA, Oregon, and California.
Something about the mountains stops the liberalism from spreading eastward in these states.
600 in the poll, a +8 Dem sample and an error of 4%! This isn’t a poll, it’s reading tea leaves!
Tied amoung those that already voted...wtf
The Oregon senate IIRC is +1 Republican and the house is split down the middle. (somebody correct me if I’m wrong) The last Governors race had a very poor R candidate. With Romney’s coattails, this could be a very close election in OR.
With the vote by mail fraud factored in I still think Obama wins, but hopefully the US house will pick up 1 or 2 more Reps from Oregon. Only a couple more weeks till we all find out.......
And the sample had to include 42 percent Democrat turnout to get that result. Is that what is to be expected come November in Oregon?
This is the state Rush keeps throwing out there. I wonder if there is some serious inside info there? For a rep to win a state like that you would have to be low key. Can’t wake up the big city/college loons and let them know it’s competitive.
If Gary Johnson wants some recognition, siphoning off a bunch of pothead votes from Zero in OR is a perfect opportunity. I hope he can make a campaign stop or 2 up there. Ditto for the Green Party candidate.
It must be the coastal humidity, that causes mold to grow in many people’s brains.
In my suburban neighborhood I’m seeing 10-1 signs for Romney, the Obama signs are old from the previous election.
I just pray a geometric change will happen in OR!
2008, Oregon was 36/27/37 (D/R/I)
2004, Oregon was 32/34/34 (D/R/I)
Independents backed Kerry 58-40 in 2004. In Portland, most unaffiliated voters register that way because they think the Democratic Party is too conservative.
You do realize that this poll is stating that if the undecideds break 2:1 this state is in a DEAD HEAT!!!!
BamBam has been running tv ads since the convention. Not one Romney ad.
I’ve lived in Oregon for the last 35 years and currently reside in Bend. Sadly this state will remain blue due to the major liberal I-5 corridor cities of Portland, Salem, Eugene & Ashland. You’ll have 30 counties vote for Romney and 7 vote for Obama and Obama will win by 7-10%.
Yup. I used to live in Bellingham and it was heaven for me. Socially though, it was as dead as obama’s honor.
Poll Ping. Oregon.
Obama won the Independants by 23% in Oregon. According to this survey he is underwater again.
Obama won the Independants by 23% in Oregon. According to this survey he is underwater again.
Not from Oregon but, CNN 2008 exit poll was D+9 and likely oversampled dems as do most exit polls. Interestingly the breakdown of sex was 50:50.
“If it weren’t for Portland and college hippies in places like Ashland, this state would be all R. Portland just runs that state.”
“The same is true for Washington State. If you remove the Seattle metropolitan area from the mix the state is conservative. “
The same is true in EVERY state. Just a few urban counties, either in NY, IL, WA, or MD, PA or MI, or NV, or even CA, makes the state Democrat and liberal. Remove the College towns, capital city, and mega-cities, and this country would be 2-to-1 Republican.
Almost forgot. Indies were 37% in 2008 exit polls. Seems this poll might not be showing enough indies.
Early voters in Oregon have gone 47-47 so far according to this poll.
This early voting is very interesting.
cross tabs?
Is this a credible pollster?
I have never heard of them. They seem to be a local Oregon firm.
From google some democrats seem to think it’s a GOP outfit.
Dagone it. Thanks to you and your link, I just wasted an hour of my life randomly surfing the web and reading about hipsterism. I feel so empty inside. :-)
But, seriously, that was a pretty funny video about Portland.
OR is the state where they only have mail in voting? That 2-1 Romney undecided vote would not be included in those who already voted.
If we could have our way then, we could use a property qualification for voting. Like you must own at least an acre or two of land to vote. Not easy to get that reform passed, though. But keep it in mind.
I am from Bend, Oregon. I really expected more of a spread from my bastion of liberalism. I however, am slightly to the right of Genghis Khan and the son of a small lumber mill owner with an uncle who had 6000 acre cattle ranch. That should size up my leanings. Typically Oregon has gone blue do to the liberal demographics of the Portland metro / Multnomah county and Eugene area. Bend is the largest city east of the Cascades and has become increasingly “blue” due to trust fund baby infiltration. The rest of Oregon counties have traditionally been mostly red.
Per Adrian Gray, witty a quarter million votes cast Rs up .01%-—were down over 7 in 08. Throw in a) ANY indies and/or advantage of D crossover v R crossover and at 5m total votes this, to me, looks like at least a 2% win AFTER subtracting D advantage in absentees. Anyone else got different math?
Per Adrian Gray, with a quarter million votes cast Rs up .01%-—were down over 7 in 08. Throw in a) ANY indies and/or advantage of D crossover v R crossover and at 5m total votes this, to me, looks like at least a 2% win AFTER subtracting D advantage in absentees. Anyone else got different math? (Remember, Ds come out of absentees w/ an 80k lead (vs over 200,000 in 08).
Sorry, I was talking about OH -—I know this is an OR thread but my reference was to he strength of early R voters.
Unfortunately Marion County voted for Obama over McCain in 2008 -
http://www.co.marion.or.us/CO/elections/nov04-2008results.htm
Deschutes County (Bend) only had McCain over Obama by a couple of tenths of one percent so Deschutes wasn’t much better.
I will say this Anti-Hillary - we travel to Eugene every other week from Bend for business and we saw just one Obama sign the last time we went. In 2008 hopie-changie signs were everywhere. I find it hard to believe that this State would be nothing but a solid blue this time around even with the lack of enthusiasm. I’d love to be wrong though.
Why, OH WHY, do city dwellers have such a liberal herd mentality?
Then don’t check out Portlandia’s “Allergy pride parade.”
I live in a mini-Portland, Asheville, NC. Love to laugh at hipsters.
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