With those internals how does Romney NOT win Wisconsin?
I hope the voters in Milwaukee (little Chicago) and Madison (liberal U. of Wisconsin) woke up!
******
You know how we have 'likely voter" screens? Well Rasmussen asks likely voters, "are you CERTAIN" to vote
Take a look at this stat from his Wisconsin Poll.
"Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters."
ASK YOURSELF THIS: IF 96% OF LIKELY VOTERS ARE CERTAIN TO VOTE, AND THE LIKELY VOTE IS TIED AT 49%
AND THE RESULT IS CERTAIN VOTERS WILL VOTE 51%R TO 47%O? THAT'S 4 POINTS.
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT ROUND, THAT MEANS 100% OF NOT-CERTAIN VOTERS ARE OBAMA VOTERS, and we know Obama voters are going to "not turn out" at a rate of some percentage.
Be conservative and knock the 4% down to 2%, and Romney's up by 2 in Wisconsin.
(none of that takes into consideration that the polls are lagging the reality, and whatever state level skew Ras is using - we know as of today that national skew is now D+6 for Ras - sounds like he and Gallup agreed to comprimise.)