With those internals how does Romney NOT win Wisconsin?
I hope the voters in Milwaukee (little Chicago) and Madison (liberal U. of Wisconsin) woke up!
You know how we have 'likely voter" screens? Well Rasmussen asks likely voters, "are you CERTAIN" to vote
Take a look at this stat from his Wisconsin Poll.
"Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters."
ASK YOURSELF THIS: IF 96% OF LIKELY VOTERS ARE CERTAIN TO VOTE, AND THE LIKELY VOTE IS TIED AT 49%
AND THE RESULT IS CERTAIN VOTERS WILL VOTE 51%R TO 47%O? THAT'S 4 POINTS.
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT ROUND, THAT MEANS 100% OF NOT-CERTAIN VOTERS ARE OBAMA VOTERS, and we know Obama voters are going to "not turn out" at a rate of some percentage.
Be conservative and knock the 4% down to 2%, and Romney's up by 2 in Wisconsin.
(none of that takes into consideration that the polls are lagging the reality, and whatever state level skew Ras is using - we know as of today that national skew is now D+6 for Ras - sounds like he and Gallup agreed to comprimise.)