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Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/26/2012

Posted on 10/26/2012 9:01:32 AM PDT by GLDNGUN

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; romney; wisconsin
...A week ago, the president held a slight 50% to 48% lead. Earlier in the month, he was ahead 51% to 49%. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

Among the 90% who say they’ve already made up their minds whom they will vote for, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 48%.

Romney has a six-point lead over Obama – 50% to 44% - among all voters in the state when they are asked which candidate they trust more to handle the economy...
1 posted on 10/26/2012 9:01:33 AM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: GLDNGUN

With those internals how does Romney NOT win Wisconsin?


2 posted on 10/26/2012 9:04:06 AM PDT by GLDNGUN
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To: GLDNGUN

I hope the voters in Milwaukee (little Chicago) and Madison (liberal U. of Wisconsin) woke up!


3 posted on 10/26/2012 9:05:51 AM PDT by sarasota
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To: GLDNGUN

Is it too late to get a bunch of lardassed female teachers and weedy hippie male teachers to bus in for a protest?


4 posted on 10/26/2012 9:06:47 AM PDT by relictele
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To: GLDNGUN

Mitt opening up multiple paths to victory without Ohio. This is good news.


5 posted on 10/26/2012 9:09:27 AM PDT by freedom1st
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To: GLDNGUN

And a WI win makes Ohio non-essential.


6 posted on 10/26/2012 9:10:09 AM PDT by navymom1
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To: GLDNGUN

Wisconsin is one state we undeniably have a superior GOTV apparatus. Our VP is from there and has his district team. The RNC chair is from WI, and got the job due to his WI strategy, and the whole recall debacle of the past 2 years built all the lists and organization for it. I think we win Wisconsin.


7 posted on 10/26/2012 9:10:18 AM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: GLDNGUN
Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election.

"Wolverines!Badgers!"

8 posted on 10/26/2012 9:11:51 AM PDT by Disambiguator (Re-electing Obama is not optimal.)
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To: ilgipper

To add to my thoughts earlier...I am hoping for decisive victory, but wouldn’t it be a sweet victory if Wisconsin put us over the top after all the recall shenanigans of the past two years? It would be a direct result of the sour taste the unions, Dems and media left across Wisconsin.


9 posted on 10/26/2012 9:12:31 AM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: freedom1st

Ohio is in the bag.


10 posted on 10/26/2012 9:13:05 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: GLDNGUN
Pardon the CAPITAL LETTERS I'm rushing and just copying in an email I sent to friends, also rushed, once I turned on caps I just said the hell with it.

******

You know how we have 'likely voter" screens? Well Rasmussen asks likely voters, "are you CERTAIN" to vote …

Take a look at this stat from his Wisconsin Poll.

"Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters."

ASK YOURSELF THIS: IF 96% OF LIKELY VOTERS ARE CERTAIN TO VOTE, AND THE LIKELY VOTE IS TIED AT 49% …

AND THE RESULT IS CERTAIN VOTERS WILL VOTE 51%R TO 47%O? THAT'S 4 POINTS.

WITH ONLY A SLIGHT ROUND, THAT MEANS 100% OF NOT-CERTAIN VOTERS ARE OBAMA VOTERS, and we know Obama voters are going to "not turn out" at a rate of some percentage.

Be conservative and knock the 4% down to 2%, and Romney's up by 2 in Wisconsin.

(none of that takes into consideration that the polls are lagging the reality, and whatever state level skew Ras is using - we know as of today that national skew is now D+6 for Ras - sounds like he and Gallup agreed to comprimise.)

11 posted on 10/26/2012 9:15:03 AM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: ilgipper

ilgipper — your lips to God’s ears, as they say. That would be sweet, sweet, sweet.


12 posted on 10/26/2012 9:15:08 AM PDT by Snake65
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To: GLDNGUN
Romney has a six-point lead over Obama – 50% to 44% - among all voters in the state when they are asked which candidate they trust more to handle the economy...

Game over. These polls are going to be fun over the next 10 days or so. The Gallup electorate survey today is the best news yet. The election is basically going to be a landslide.
13 posted on 10/26/2012 9:15:38 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: GLDNGUN

Bear in mind, that since Obama was elected:

- Progressive darling Sen. Russ Feingold was tossed out of office

- Scott Walker was elected and confirmed again by an even larger margin in the highly contentious recall following passage of ACT 10

- Republicans took control of the state legislature

- Conservative SC Justice David Prosser won (despite massive fraud)

- The competitor to Tommy Thompson for the dairy queens Senate seat is a radical progressive lesbian

- The Republican VP candidate is a well-liked brilliant conservative leader from Wisconsin

- Wisconsin democrats killed 600 badly-needed union jobs in the taconite mine deal and major employers such as Kimberley Clark and Oshkosh have announced major layoffs in recent days.

Given all the above, the only question I have is why Obama-Biden is not trailing by at least 10 points.


14 posted on 10/26/2012 9:24:32 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: GLDNGUN
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
15 posted on 10/26/2012 9:31:40 AM PDT by GraceG
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To: bigbob

Given all the above, the only question I have is why Obama-Biden is not trailing by at least 10 points.

Poll Margin of error +/- 20%

Read in the margins!


16 posted on 10/26/2012 9:37:16 AM PDT by GraceG
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To: GLDNGUN

So Romney leads by 4 points amoung certain to vote and those who have made up their mind...and is at 49% overall. The only way Obama wins WI is if NONE of his supporters change their mind and they ALL decide to show up at the polls after indicating they may not...

R/R wins Wisconsin. Romney is a freakin genius - I remember people saying picking Ryan was stupid because he should have picked someone from a swing state. Romney had the foresight to realize Wisconsin WOULD be a swing state, and I bet Ryan is what pushes him over the top there.


17 posted on 10/26/2012 9:42:18 AM PDT by IsaacDian
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To: sarasota

I was born in Wisconsin. Lived there until my 13th year. Grew up in Democratic Rock county taking its lead from Dane. Madtown and Milwaukee won’t wake up, but at least the enthusiasm gap is enough that it should keep the pro-Obama voters home. I hope.

I’d love to see Wisconsin turn red, because Lord knows Washington never will...


18 posted on 10/26/2012 9:42:21 AM PDT by Kinger87
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To: Kinger87

That’s not nice. We may one day see the light around here. In West Seattle, I’ve seen nearly as many Romney signs as Obama signs. Something is happening here, probably not enough to turn us purple, but it’s happening slowly.


19 posted on 10/26/2012 10:33:13 AM PDT by Seattle
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20 posted on 10/26/2012 10:48:06 AM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: GLDNGUN

>>Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters. <<

This has got to be wrong as written. First, it’s hard to believe that 96% of registered voters will vote. That would be a huge turnout.

Second, 96% is essentially everyone in the poll, and if the 96% are splitting 51/47, how does the overall polling result get down to a tie? Not possible mathematically.

I’m guessing that the statement has a misprint on the percentage sure to vote. It would make sense if it said 46% said they are certain to vote and Romney leads 51/47 in that group, or any other percentage between 40% and 60%, but the 96% number is clearly impossible.


21 posted on 10/26/2012 12:43:18 PM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: GLDNGUN

Mitt Romney to Hold Rally at State Fair Park

Republican presidential candidate to campaign Monday in West Allis, while Obama coming to Green Bay on Tuesday.

By Mark Maley
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Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is coming to West Allis and will hold a rally at Wisconsin State Fair Park on Monday night.

Doors will open at 5 p.m. for the rally at the Wisconsin Products Pavilion, 640 S. 84th Street, with the event scheduled to begin at 7 p.m.

Free tickets for the rally are now available online.

Romney is coming to Wisconsin one day before President Barack Obama is scheduled to appear in Green Bay. No details are yet available on Obama’s visit Tuesday.

Vice President Joe Biden is making stops in Kenosha and Oshkosh on Friday, while Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan also is expected to campaign in Milwauke next week.


22 posted on 10/26/2012 12:44:02 PM PDT by Wisconsinlady ("When injustice becomes law, then resistance becomes duty." Thomas Jefferson)
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To: GLDNGUN

I live in rural Wisconsin, but claim no particular insight as to the facts on the ground, so to speak. However, during the Walker recall, the unions were very organized, and unified as well. Just the fact that they got about a million petitioner’s signatures was proof of that. If you went for a drive during the petition gathering period, you’d often pass a spot where they were gathering petitions from people in passing cars.

Offsetting that, a lot of people felt Walker should be given a chance, so he got some votes from people that might well have voted against him initially, and might do so again in 2014. And when Walker was initially elected, he didn’t make it clear how quickly and aggressively he was going to take on the unions. If he had, I doubt he’d be Governor today.

However, after Nov 2010, the GOP had commanding control of both the Assembly and the Senate (which was unfortunately lost in the ensuing recalls) and Gov. Walker was elected at that time.

So, to assume Wisconsin is not at least a toss up would be foolish. In fact, it’s starting from an obvious GOP bias, and the Dems have work to do to get it back.

But will the unions be as united this time as they were in the recall? Personally, I doubt it, as the Walker recall was specifically about union power, whereas this one is about jobs, plus many other issues that are unrelated to union power. Many union members hunt, for example, and are aware of the Dem’s stance on guns. Many are pro-life, and disagree with the Dems on that issue as well. Plus, teachers haven’t lost jobs, as feared, and private unions are seeing employers threatened by Obama’s policies. And the teachers union itself has lost both funding and staffing under Walker’s law requiring the teacher to pay his own union dues directly, so they are unlikely to be at full force for the election, especially after blowing so much on two recall elections.

It appears, for these reasons, that unions won’t have the clout they had in the Walker recall, an election they lost in any case. In addition, Benghazi is gradually getting more and more press and a lot of rural Dem voters are going to be disgusted by the facts being revealed. There’s a lot of connection to the military in rural Wisconsin, even in traditional Dem areas.

Given recent history, I’m actually surprised Wisconsin is even considered a toss up. One would think Romney would have looked at it as a near certain pickup, even before he selected Paul Ryan for his VP. Still, one never knows....


23 posted on 10/26/2012 1:12:14 PM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: Norseman

“This has got to be wrong as written. First, it’s hard to believe that 96% of registered voters will vote. That would be a huge turnout.”

It just means that 96% of Rasmussen’s sample say they are certain to vote. Rasmussen’s sample isn’t just a scattershot cross-section of people. He deliberately focuses on prime, engaged voters.


24 posted on 10/26/2012 1:23:31 PM PDT by Kingosaurus
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To: Norseman

Two reasons they may have gotten this number: It’s extrapolated from a relatively smallish sample, and it’s the answer people like to give about themselves and doesn’t necessarily mean they will vote.


25 posted on 10/26/2012 1:30:23 PM PDT by firebrand (Beware of wishful thinking--the mousetrap of small minds.)
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To: GLDNGUN
What? A tie again? Can't those voters make up their mind already?
26 posted on 10/26/2012 3:40:22 PM PDT by johnsondavid841
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