Posted on 10/26/2012 6:43:11 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Follow Rasmussen on Twitter, you get poll data ASAP.
Would be sweet and ironic if Obama’s total vote share is 47%. Of course, I would like it to be about 20%, but that is not going to happen.
“tired Socialist blather”
That sums it up well!
Look at the right wrong track - I’m guessing 39% is Obama’s low end should he flatline in the next few days before the election.
Not a good number for an incumbent President seeking re-election.
If even Ras sees D+6 as a legitimate polling model, then people need to reconsider attacking all these other polling firms for essentially doing the same. For whatever reason even Rasmussen is arguing that more people are identifying themselves as Democrats in polling. I'd suggest that is probably because more conservatives identify as independent now. This would explain why Romney is winning independents in nearly every poll - sometimes overwhelmingly.
Except for the voting, you mean.
Where did you read that, and why did he do it???
A call from Axelrod regarding some compromising pictures from his college days would be my guess...
And here is Scott’s commentary for today:
Key paragraph:
It’s now clear that Romney gained ground over the three debates. Heading into the first debate, the president was ahead of Romney or tied every single day in the tracking poll for two full weeks. Now, looking back over the past three weeks of daily tracking, the president has had the advantage just once. On the morning of the first debate, it was Obama 49% Romney 47%.
Thanks, dude. We appreciate the heads-up.
@NumbersMuncher
Rasmussen has Romney still up 3, 50-47. Romney up 17 among indys. Ras moved sample to *about* D+6 to keep it a 3 point race.
Yeah, we’d like it to be 20% instead of 47%,
but that’s the whole point -
the leftists/democrats have bought off 47% of the voters,
half of whom would not support them otherwise.
Do you know why he keeps changing the sample?
Rasmussen has Romney still up 3, 50-47. Romney up 17 among indys. Ras moved sample to *about* D+6 to keep it a 3 point race."
Excellent. Now let's get OH, WI, and NV moving in that direction.
What was he using previously?
I think he does this to compensate somewhat for the lack of cellphone #'s in their sample. I heard Scott say the other day that, their data suggests that actually polling a representative sample of cell phones would move the numbers " a couple of percent" toward the Democrats".
Maybe, this is one of the ways they are trying to correct for that?
If Rasmussen had same party ID weighting as yesterday, Romneys lead would have jumped from 3 pts to 4.44 points today. Either 50-46 or 51-46
Swing State Sneak Peek: R:50 O:46 -> Unchanged
The Governor is up 11 with Independents
He is behind 5 with women
Approval Index is -14%, which is lower than the -12% nationally.
So, that may show more Republican intensity in the Swing States
Looks like Romney’s debate strategy was pitch perfect.
We all would prefer to see blood in the water, but by the 3rd debate, the campaigns know where things sit in the polling, and strategize to win the remaining votes. Obama is losing, Romney is winning, period.
That is a plausible explanation, but it does not tally with RAS own poll in August which showed Republican identification up above 37%, nor with the PEW poll.
Well, we’ll see by 6 November whether it will be a relatively tight race or a complete blow out. More and more I am beginning to think we will see another 72. The silent majority will speak its mind.
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