Posted on 10/26/2012 2:53:11 AM PDT by therightliveswithus
With the Presidential election increasingly gridlocked between Democratic incumbent Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney, splitting the electoral college 281-257 for Obama with no toss-ups in Real Clear Politics latest analysis, it appears that for the second time in three national races it will all come down to Ohio.
According to recent polling conducted in the buckeye state, Obama leads Romney by an average of two points, or 48-46%, which is well within the margin of error. And when you consider four of the last eight polls have the candidates tied, or leading by a point or less, the race is tightening daily in this battleground.
This should come as no surprise, as both candidates have spent countless hours and monies in Ohio in an attempt to secure their 18 electoral votes on November 6th, but the modest unemployment rate of 7.2% places the Obama campaign on better footing
(Excerpt) Read more at punditpress.com ...
The MSM will NEVER publish a poll that shows Romney up in OH.
They have an emotional and political investment in the One and they’re not going to write him off. They’re crooked and play dirty for keeps.
Don’t let their faked OH polls worry you; its going to be alright and we have ten days still to go!
They don't want to think that because it is strongly breaking towards Romney.
I did an analysis last night based on old statistics of past 4 elections, subtracting %D Obama got from the avg %D, minus 2% for minority turn-out in 2008, calling it O-factor, adding O-factor to %R (% core Republican) McCain got in 2008, and I predict follows:
Romney will win CO, FL, IA, NH, OH, VA, Wis.
And he might win the follows if turn-out is low (Hurrican Sandy will helps us some here.):
Mich, Minn, NV, OR, PA,
All my projected numbers at all states were confirmed well with at least one recent poll number from Real Clear Politics. You can do the same by looking at the old stat from:
http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
And verify with one of the polls from RCP.
Romney will get at least 295 votes for a win.
It is scary to think what Obama will be capable after Nov 6th.
I guess this poll shows why Romney is drawing stadium filling/turnaway crowds and Zero is speaking to middle school kids in Ohio.
Several posters have made mention of “Hurricane Sandy” having an effect on the election. This storm if it occurs is a coastal one and even then it is scheduled to be here and gone by next Wednesday the 31st of October which is still a week before the election.
I don’t see any effect of this storm on turnout with MAYBE the exception of those not so motivated staying home in the case of disruption in the power supply, downed trees not cleaned up, etc.
Those highly motivated as the Right appears to be will crawl over broken glass to get to the polls. I know I will.
One reason is that Sandy will touch PA, OH, and maybe MI, suppressing early voters who tend to be democrats.
LLS
I have to say, I am rather concerned right now. I think the most objective polls (some of which are not reported, b/c they are for private consumption) show a dead heat in Ohio. The fact is, no polls show Romney winning Ohio. Some show Romney tying...others show a narrow obama win.
The polls of course could be underestimating Romney’s support. But I never like to be in that position. The fact is that Romney is going to need to run a point or two ahead of the polls (that’s not much....) in Ohio and a few other states in order to reach 270. To put it the other way - the unthinkable - is that if all the polls today are amalgamated and the votes come out like that - then obama narrowly wins.
A Romney victory is very doable...but it is not done yet (if the polls are accurate....). This is why I am nervous.
(I think you are probably right though at the end of the day.....the polls are understating Romney strength...and probably by more than a point or two....after all, several national polls are converging on Romney at 50 and a 3 point lead....which is very very good)
I share your concern!! There is way too much at stake here for another Zero term :( I just hope we are not surprised on election day :(
stakes are high...the path to victory is not certain. Hannity yesterday said all this....he showed how it could play out, but expressed real concern. So...I suppose we are where we should be, given what we know.
On the other hand, seeing as tens of millions of good Americans share our concern over the fate of the country, maybe a 1980 style wave is in the works. I’ve already voted, so now it is all GOTV and praying!
Once a concern troll has sowed dissent or discord, often he or she can sit back and let the other commenters do the rest of the work. When a concern troll has done the job correctly, the discussion will split, factions will emerge, and support for the cause will have eroded. Concern trolling can also be highly distracting, as people band together to oppose the concern troll, rather than discussing serious issues, including valid concerns which should be addressed.
Newt was on Greta last night and basically said he expects Romney to run the table and win all the contested states that have Obama below 50%.
Underemployment in Ohio over 15% should crush Obama.
Most people I know are not even answering their phones due to the heaving polling here in OH. Most everyone has called ID on their landlines.
Newt and Dick Morris are predicting blowouts for Romney while professional pollsters tell a different story. Rasmussen polls favor Romney more consistently but his skew right. Are Newt and Dick trying to keep morale up?
Yesterday on NPR they had an author who wrote about Washington outsiders becoming president. He indicated it works out very well, as in the case of Lincoln,or as in the case of others, very badly. He stated that Romney was such outsider. At the end of the interview Someone, The author or the NPR spokesperson, said it looks like the American public is going to roll the dice again.
I can totally see that. Every voter in Ohio is treated as royalty. Till after the election.
Newt’s argument is that the incumbent’s number is the ceiling. In other words, if the credible polls are showing Obama at 48% in Ohio, even if it is a lead, he will likely lose 52-48. We’ll see. The only thing that scares me is 2004 did not uphold the conventional wisdom. That race was tied according to the polls so the undecideds must have broken to Bush, the incumbant, as he had a solid win.
Another sign of MSM ignorance and/or hypocrisy — When a Rep is in office, full employement is around 5% unemployement and MSM goes berserk when unemployment exceeds that. With this president, full employement hovers at around 7.2% unemployement and that’s considered great. The alphabet soup MSM has to go out of business.
Goldstategop...
Better than a Valium.
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