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Ohio Election Polls, 8 Years Ago This Week
Polls

Posted on 10/25/2012 11:01:24 PM PDT by Arthurio

Colmbus Dispatch* | 10/20-29
2880 LV
2.0
50
50
-
TIE
Survey USA| 10/23-10/25
831 LV
3.5
47
50
-
Kerry +3
ARG | 10/23-10/25
600 LV
4.0
47
49
-
Kerry +2
LA Times | 10/22-10/26
585 LV
4.0
44
50
-
Kerry +6
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/22-24
801 LV
3.0
47
45
-
Bush +2
Rasmussen | 10/20-10/26
537 LV
4.0
50
46
-
Bush +4
Scripps | 10/17-10/21
358 LV
5.3
46
50
-
Kerry +4
Gallup | 10/17-10/20
706 LV
3.5
47
48
1
Kerry +1


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 10/25/2012 11:01:29 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

For reference, Bush beat Kerry in Ohio by 2.1% in 2004.


2 posted on 10/25/2012 11:08:15 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Arthurio
HUGE crowd for @MittRomney in Ohio
3 posted on 10/25/2012 11:08:22 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Winning is Everything.)
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To: Arthurio

Here’s hoping for a large national Bradley effect.


4 posted on 10/25/2012 11:25:47 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (A half-truth is a complete lie)
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To: Arthurio

Wow.

Very encouraging. Most polls even had Kerry at 50%.

Of course the “early vote” fraud wasn’t going on back then, but still, very encouraging. Thanks for sharing.


5 posted on 10/25/2012 11:27:05 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Arthurio

You should email this to Rush.

I am sure his listeners would love to have Ohio put into historical perspective.


6 posted on 10/25/2012 11:41:43 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Sgt_Schultze

“Here’s hoping for a large national Bradley effect.”

I’m convinced that is what is going to happen. Everyone is commenting about how there are no Obama stickers on cars this time round. Zero has no support. I think people who are registered Dems get phone calls from pollsters, and when they tell the pollster they are a registered Dem, they have to say they are voting for Zero. Everyone has seen what happens if anyone dares criticize The One. They are immediately labeled a racist.

True, there are hardly any Romney bumper stickers either, but I’m as conservative as they come and I don’t have a sticker because I don’t want my car vandalized.


7 posted on 10/25/2012 11:41:59 PM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: Arthurio

Great post! Thanks!


8 posted on 10/25/2012 11:58:17 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: CatOwner; Arthurio
For reference, Bush beat Kerry in Ohio by 2.1% in 2004.

I remember the Dems howling about disenfranchisement of certain groups (Cleveland?) over that one.

9 posted on 10/26/2012 12:06:23 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: thecodont

Was this the election where the media was stunned that the exit polls did not match the actual results and acted as though there just must be something wrong because of it?


10 posted on 10/26/2012 12:16:59 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: tsowellfan
Was this the election where the media was stunned that the exit polls did not match the actual results and acted as though there just must be something wrong because of it?

I think so. There was a disparity they tried to explain away by saying there was vote fraud.

11 posted on 10/26/2012 12:28:04 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: CatOwner; Arthurio
For reference, Bush beat Kerry in Ohio by 2.1% in 2004.

Rasmussen had Bush +2, and Bush won by 2. Rasmussen currently has Ohio tied 48-48.

12 posted on 10/26/2012 1:25:50 AM PDT by douginthearmy
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To: comebacknewt

What I notice is that Rasmussen was more correct than the other polls, with the exception of one I’ve never heard of.

Gallup doesn’t have a very good track record, do they?


13 posted on 10/26/2012 1:26:38 AM PDT by Catsrus (Ma)
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To: Arthurio

It’s snowing in He!!.

The Columbus Dispatch endorses.....Mitt Romney.


14 posted on 10/26/2012 3:35:12 AM PDT by Vinnie (A)
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To: Catsrus

Strategic Vision is a political consulting firm that is still around today. They used to do a lot of public political polling until a few years ago. A decade ago they were well known among poll watchers like us.

I guess no one is hiring them to do publicly released political surveys these days since I don’t remember seeing any recently. Does anyone know?


15 posted on 10/26/2012 4:07:02 AM PDT by ChronicMA
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To: tsowellfan

Yes. At midday exit polls showed Kerry winning OH and several other “ swing” states and I came on FR to a total meltdown having just done “poll flushing” in a key bellwether precinct that showed R turnout at high enough level that Bush had on. Rove said he knew it at that moment too. But Freepers were sure Bush had lost even as late as 8 pm.


16 posted on 10/26/2012 4:12:03 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Arthurio

It would be interesting to see the last week or two of polling before each firm’s final poll. Sometimes a firm will show a significant move in the results over this period of time, and often in different directions than other polling firms. Were the 2004 Ohio polling numbers leading up to the final polls all over the map?


17 posted on 10/26/2012 4:13:20 AM PDT by ChronicMA
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To: Arthurio

Very interesting. Thanks for the research.

A tidbit: Newt Gingrich was on Greta last night and was making some wild predictions. He said it would be a Romney landslide, 53-47.

He mentioned his experience in reading polls, going back to his House days. He claimed all the national polls showing Obama at 45-46-47 are where he will be on 11/7. He referred it to the Carville model or something. But it is also what Dick Morris uses (as does the Suffolk polling).


18 posted on 10/26/2012 5:10:01 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: Arthurio
November 6th will be Chick-Fil-A day writ large.

Do the math.

19 posted on 10/26/2012 6:36:05 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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