Skip to comments.Pew: Obama 51, Romney 43
Posted on 09/19/2012 8:57:43 PM PDT by Qbert
The Pew Research Center gives Obama his biggest lead of the week, finding that he "holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November":
With the exception of jobs and the deficit, on which voter opinion is about evenly divided, Obama leads Romney on most key issues, notably healthcare, Medicare, and abortion.
And the survey, conducted amid an outbreak of violence in the Middle East and shortly after the killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya, shows that Obama has a wide edge when it comes to foreign affairs and national security. Far more voters see Obama as a strong leader and as the candidate voters believe would use good judgment in a crisis. Voters also express more confidence in Obama than Romney to deal with foreign policy generally, as well as problems in the Middle East.
Obamas overall advantage he leads 51% to 42% among registered voters does not narrow significantly when looking only at those most likely to vote. Among 2,192 likely voters, Obama leads Romney, 51% to 43%.
So, in the last 24 hours we've seen a 5-point Obama lead from NBC/WSJ, a 1-point Obama lead from AP-GfK and this 8-point lead from Pew. While the top lines numbers vary from poll to poll, the consistent pattern is some edge for Obama on the overall ballot, plus a lead on most individual issues and a dead heat (or something like it) on the economy. If you consider the fundamental conditions of the 2012 cycle, the fact that Romney hasn't been able to establish a lead over Obama on economic issues is probably the most surprising stat of them all.
See my #48. You confirmed my hunch. It's a scam, and it's criminal.
And in 2010 they showed the Dems holding the House by a wide margin at this point. Yawn!
Pray for America
Pew had Obama at 46 to McCain at 44 this time 4 years ago using this sample
Why the big change in their sample methodology?
This is all you need to see:
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=2,424]:
Democrats - 37%
Republicans - 28%
Independents - 31%
They are actually owned by the Times Mirror Corporation (LA Times).
I don’t trust anything from these people.
Apparently Romney is aiming for the 10-15% of independents who dont wanted to told about Obama does all these things.
I know it sounds crazy...but this what Romney said in the tapes and he may be getting advice like this from his highly paid consultants.
I think Romney is approaching this like a corporate ceo using numbers and sales figures and concentrating on carefully chosen messages and targets, this explains why Romney has run a very gentle campaign.
No matter how you slice it, this isnt the best news for Romney.”
You could be right, or not... I am not a poll watcher. I think anyone with half a brain knew that this was going to be an uphill battle. The press and much of the legal system is solidly behind BO, and we also have voter fraud issues to deal with.
But, I will vote for Romney because I have to and I will encourage everyone I know and many I don’t to vote for him also. I also have no problem with keeping up my writing letters to my local newspapers and TV stations about untruthful reporting. That and some extra time on bended knee is about all that can be done.
Much has happened just this last week and in some respects, it is a long time until November and a lot can happen between now and then. I do believe that most people that are going to vote have already made up their mind and it will just come down to who is able to generate the greatest turnout.
I do not know who Politico uses for legal advice, not that they are culpable for the poll. Whomever he or she is, to my great, great, great regret my ex wife did not have the same lawyer.
no idea, I assumed they would start right after the Democratic convention.. but so far ... nothing.
I don’t get it, what is Romney doing with all his money? certainly not advertising!
Good find! Thanks for posting that. Pew had Obama up 53% to McCain’s 38% on Oct 28 2008. 15 points among LIKELY voters! How are they still in business?
What BS.. Invert the numbers and you have what’s really going on.
This “it’s a close race is garbage” and always has been.
You won't see any. Neither will I. We live in TX and GA, respectively.
“Is our nation coming to an end soon?”
I seriously can’t believe any MSM polls knowing they always have way more democrats in their samples.
They said Obama leads on Abortion
Obama is a real killer
Well the media sure has it’s new #1 attack line.
“Romney’s missteps” (inexplicably including POing Palestinians in with that,which would be a huge problem if the editorial board of the NY times were the only electors)”.
Osama’s whole tenure has been one giant misstep.
I’ve compared Glove to Tom Dewey a lot, but he needs to take a bag from him and be more careful, no such thing as a private anything in the age of the cell phone camera.
Next week Pew poll: Obama up by 50 points. Last week just before the election, Pew poll: Obama up by 135 points.
Pew was actually tied with Rasmussen for most accurate poll in 2008. And tied with Battleground for most accurate in 2004.
And this report is saying Rasmussen badly missed in 2010 and was bias toward Republicans:
This is scaring me a little.
I agree. Just reviewing some old polling from the past years and we’re behind no matter how many people here wanna dismiss the polls. FReepers do this EVERY SINGLE ELECTION CYCLE and what happens? It’s always closer than we think or we lose.
I’m telling you, Romney is down and floundering a little.
It should be that hard its happened in 1980 and in 1992 and because of the economy which is WORSE now. So why should it be hard with Obama?!
It should.... But they’ll blame Romney’s defeat in Conservatives that voted 3rd party or not at all....and conservatives will look like the bad guy extremists.....
2010 was an epic blowout for Republicans. As I read it -- in essence -- Nate Silver's criticism of Rasmussen in 2010 is that he predicted even more of a blowout for Republicans than actually happened. But that's not unusual. In 1996 Clinton/Dole, Gallup predicted 55% for Clinton but he actually won 49%. In 1964 Johnson/Goldwater, Gallup predicted 64% for Johnson and he actually won 61%. If the outcome is approaching certainty, some aren't going to bother to vote, and I suspect that's even more evident in off-year elections. Rasmussen predicted a Republican blowout in 2010 and there was a Republican blowout in 2010...
As I remember events in 2010, Nancy Pelosi was shocked when she learned that she was going to need to pack up her office and move. And she had access to the Democrat's internal polling. So if Rasmussen was inaccurate, so were a lot of other pollsters.
My own thought is that in 2012 many of the pollsters -- Gallup and Rasmussen are the main exceptions -- are "correcting" their results to match party ID in 2008, and they're doing it because "everybody else" is doing the same thing.
So, a 9-point Dem lead in splits to get an 8-pt lead. Got it.
Well, look at almost any Ras poll. He maybe slightly oversamples Rs, but if turnout splits are like 2010, he should be dead on.
No, I gave this some long thought and I don’t think they are trying to suppress our vote. They know we’ll vote. I think the purpose is this: they know Zero will lose big, and are setting the stage to de-legitimize and de-stabilize the Romney presidency from the outset (”How could this happen? ALL the polls showed Obama up big! The GOP must have cheated.”)
Thank you for the reassurance. It’s hard to stay positive with the world against us and even FR gets so negative I have to leave for awhile.
2010 was so close to the passing of Obamacare and people were upset. I don’t know if people still have the fight in them after SCOTUS screwed us.
“Well, look at almost any Ras poll. He maybe slightly oversamples Rs, but if turnout splits are like 2010, he should be dead on.”
I agree. The media completely missed that factor in 1980 and they’re missing it now. It’s good that Ras confiscates (a little GWB lingo there) for it...because it will be there, providing this election becomes a referendum on the incumbent (which they always do).
On a local/county level, I spoke with a GOP vet precinct worker. She is now a precinct captain and attended the first organizing meeting of captains the other night. She was extremely impressed with the groundwork the Romney people had done; said it was as or more organized than Rove's successful 04 campaign; had EVERY GOP, indie, and switcher recorded, identified, and called AND "walked." The local/county HQ has set records for calls and walks.
So, I think the anger and seething of 2010 will not be there, but the overall disgust with this oaf is certainly there and will be reflected. My 2 cents. But I think you are seeing that in ALL the non-phony polls (Mitt up 4 in NH, up 2 in CO, up 2 in FL, down 1 in PA, down only 7 in CT and so on.)
It's not just ‘the media’. Many of Romney's Republican primary allies who once claimed he was the most electable are now lining up to get on TV and be critical of him, In fact I heard Rush lamenting that yesterday. They are running away from their past endorsements hoping we forget.
The Republican TV channel doesn't play them that much but other outlets do.
You dont see ANY Democrats critical of Obama. He managed to get them all behind him and keep them there.
Obama is not even giving interviews, Romney is. Romney agreed to the debates with MSM moderators. He obviously thinks he needs exposure, even to that 47% he inadvertently dissed. Obama is not being taped insulting voters at his fundraisers, apparently Dems control who gets in.
Been there, done that in 2008. Don't think that will happen this time.
Just as a side note: OH is not the same state as 08---the SE (slightly Dem) section of the state has been hammered by Obama's anti-oil/anti-pipeline policies, and the reports from just over the border in W VA are that people in this region are fed up with him. I'll be shocked if Zero does anywhere near what he did in 08 in OH this time around.
I say, TAKE HEART. This shows that in fact Romney can be moved to the right in spite of the RINO intelligentsia. The fact that he's standing (well, somewhat) firm on the 47% is a good sign, and he has not backed down at all on Israel or the Pales.
Yes. They took it with candy and pretty words.
And you can see how that happens.
Much like committed Dems they are trained to only trust the Republican media which tells them what they want to hear.
So in the case like 2008 they can stick to FNC which only shows negative Obama stuff then listen to Rush or Hannity who says that McCain will beat Obama big..and that Republican media tells them that all the polls are wrong and that it's another 1980 and so they post here over and over that it's going to be a Republican landslide.
Then if Romney loses it is like Mccain in 2008, all the Republicans who swore he would win either call him stupid or they throw up their hands and they say they just learned that the whole thing was rigged.
His problem is he cant completely back down on the 47% comment so he rephrases it to mean something different. He is stuck with it now.
Regardless of what Rush says, Romney's 47% comment it was a pretty stupid statement. Many of those 47% who pay no income taxes who Romney told his rich donors that they are moochers who will never vote for him are those he was counting on voting for him, like seniors on SS. That is why he sent Ryan to FLA immediately to campiagn to them.
This rallies ‘consrervatives’?? Stupidity? This is what happens when you nominate an empty suit who has NO core values beyond helping himself.
Totally wrong. It’s getting massive play. R nailed it on Cavuto. Two separate polls I’ve seen even in leftist papers showed 75% and 85% (!!) agreed with his comments.
This is a game changer and R is turning it quite well into his advantage. Zero stumbled right into it.
Now it’s about the “100% of all Americans to be better off.” BOOM!
This election is over and Obama will be reelected with a mandate to continue the change. I think older freepers still hold on to the outdated idea of America being great. We are a country of sissies and queers now.
We can no longer win with the vote. To many moochers.
??? I see no polls on FNC that say that. The best his ally Rove could come up with FNC yesterday was it wont have a significant inpact, not that this helps him at all.
If it was a game changer for MR then Republicans wouldnt be lining up on TV to disown it (Romney's statements) while all Dems are on TV supporting Obama 100% .
They only voters that may support Romney more because the HIS Republican party is melting down over him is Rush listeners and that is what? 0.5% of voters?
Everyone needs to calm down and pay attention to the one poll that puts everything in perspective - the Ras. poll that shows party affiliation going back several election cycles and what resulted from that.
Remember too we don’t have a candidate that is part of the DC club that don’t want to rock the boat a Charlie Brown type that doesn’t care to win. MR clearly covets this office. WE ARE GOING TO WIN THIS
while true, he wont win very many of those voter away from the halfbalck messiah, to me, he came across as even more arrogant and elitist, and thats hard to due, even for a blueblood opportunist...
And, BTW, Obama already said he wrote off 47 percent and it didn't seem to affect him.
You’re right: this election is over. You’re wrong. Romney already won, and bigger than anyone thinks.
While you can always find one or two (FOX, WSJ) polls that will show anything you want, I challenge you to show me a plurality of polls-—even the bad ones-—that show Mitt losing ANY ground with indies over this. Further, do you really think that ANY Republican will abandon him over this? So, we are left worrying about which portion of that 47% is offended (could care less) and which is inspired to GET OUT. I think the latter group is probably 5-6%. When you combine them with groups a and b mentioned above, the result is momentous. But say you’re right and they all are turned off by the comment. It doesn’t change a thing. Romney still wins by 3.
Making a point about the 47% who pay no FITs could have been useful as a principled point.
Making a point claiming that 47% will never vote for him wasnt that great of an idea
But claiming that the 47% who pay no FITs are the same moochers 47% who will never vote for a Republican was outright stupid and wrong.
That includes troops overseas and Ryan's Mom on SS.
This is because Romney is an empty suit trying to play act a character he doesnt understand.
wow...good luck with that...i really dont have much faith in any of these polls, nor do i have a dog in this progressive fight...
i simply stated that publicly stating that 47% of the population is immaterial to a candidate is rather...um...UN-Presidential ???
Making a point claiming that 47% will never vote for him wasnt that great of an idea
thats what i was trying to say...his statement came across as 'eff em in the ear'...or elitist, his highness type rhetoric such as bambam saying 'we won' and for 'us' to sit down in the back of the bus and stfu...
if you guys think mittens doesnt need every last vote to win, ive got bridges over swampland to sell ya...
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