Posted on 09/18/2012 6:59:55 AM PDT by Ravi
LANSING, MI - President Barack Obama is slightly leading challenger Mitt Romney in the latest poll of likely Michigan voters.
The Marketing Resource Group poll of 600 likely voters, conducted Sept. 10 through Friday and given to MLive, showed the Democratic incumbent and Vice President Joe Biden with 47.5 percent and his Republican rival and running mate Paul Ryan with 42.3 percent. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning Obama had a slight edge.
Eight percent were undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at mlive.com ...
obummer’s under 50% with over 10% still undecided. An honest press would report this as very bad news for the incumbent.
I always feel MI is one of those states that looks like its a get for Republicans but in the end always winds up back to Dem by five or six points. Same with PA.
On another note, do you know how the independents split in 2008 in the general election? Did they go for Obama or McCain?
Hmmmmmm - - - - Obama 57.5 %, but Romney says that should be only 47 % .
Looks like Romney has his work cut out for him to win over the 1/2 % .
Correction: 47.5 % not 57.5%. Sorry.
So out of 600 people; 285 said they vote for 0bama, and 254 would for Romney.
Is Romney spending any money in MI?
Secure Our Future Superpac has made a big ad buy in Wisconsin and in Michigan
From other posts, is Romney spending money anywhere?
yes
Good question- I have not seen where Romney was spending money anywhere either.
He has been doing some great counter-punching, anytime Obambi spent money attacking Romney it bounced right back and pit him on the a$$- so I think he stopped, and neither of them are spending much right now
Romney has to force Obama to spend more, especially in states he does not expect to- like NY and CA
I firmly believe NY will NOT vote for him
I dont see one single Obama sign anywhere- and last time they were all over my usual orbits.
Romney is wise to spend his money elsewhere; he will never overcome the 106% turnout that some Detroit precincts will produce for Obama.
LLS
Don’t forget they most likely polled from 8-16% more dems than pubs This is actually pretty good news for Romney!!
Political ads can bump other advertising, HAVE to be carried, AND have a price guide to prevent favoring one candidate over another.
I would love to see a Romney add ridiculing MSNBC force to run on MSNBC.
I hope you’re right but I don’t see that happening....he won’t do as well as in 08 but I thing it’s a lock for him!!!
Just 1.5% within margin of area in a solid Obama union state... Uh oh Obozo!
I really don't know but 2008 is an anomoly in many ways.
A. The 'One' was running
B. McCain was awful
C.The ecomony tanked
D. McCain spectacularly suspended his campaign to rush back to DC and prance around like an ineffective self important peacock
E. The GOP candidate refused to attack the most obviously flawed rat candidate in the hsitory of the Republic.
I really don't think we can draw parallels.
D/R splits please? Meaningless now without the subset of how many they polled vs. party affiliation in 2010.
It will always be that way as long as Wayne county in MI and Phil and Pitt in PA get to report last.
II. On political issues, do you consider yourself to be very conservative, somewhat
conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal or very liberal?
Very Conservative ...........................................................18%
Somewhat Conservative .................................................23%
Moderate ...........................................................................29%
Somewhat Liberal ............................................................18%
Very Liberal ........................................................................9%
Ref/DK (Volunteered) ......................................................3%
TOTAL CONSERVATIVE ..............................................41%
TOTAL LIBERAL.............................................................27%
III. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a a. Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or a not very
strong (Democrat/Republican)?
Strong Democrat ................................................23%
Not Very Strong Democrat...............................11%
Strong Republican .............................................19%
Not Very Strong Republican............................11%
(IF DON’T KNOW OR REFUSED, CIRCLE
“Not Very Strong” Rep. or Dem)
b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or the
Democratic Party?
Closer to Republican Party...............................13%
Neither/Don’t Know ..........................................8%
Closer to Democratic Party ..............................14%
Repeats “Other” Affiliation................................1%
Refuses Both Questions ......................................1%
Expresses No Interest in or
Knowledge of Politics .........................................1%
TOTAL DEMOCRATS ....................................................34%
TOTAL INDEPENDENTS ..............................................34%
TOTAL REPUBLICANS..................................................30%
I didn’t look. It may or may not be there.
seems about right.
Which group would you say comes closest to sharing your own opinions
about government and politics: (ROTATE: the Tea Party movement or the
Occupy Wall Street movement)?
(IF DON’T KNOW, NEITHER OR REFUSED, ASK: Which one do you
lean toward?)
Tea Party............................................................................34%
Lean Tea Party....................................................................6%
Occupy Wall Street ..........................................................26%
Lean Occupy Wall Street...................................................3%
Neither (Volunteered) .....................................................19%
Don’t Know (Volunteered) .............................................14%
Refused (Volunteered) ......................................................1%
TOTAL TEA PARTY........................................................39%
TOTAL OCCUPY WALL STREET ................................29%
If Romney thinks he can win there, he’ll start advertising.
I agree, more info, reporter very nice and sent me the whole poll, he is now asking me about polling and if I could help him in the future LOL.
Thinking of the last few elections in which you voted, which answer best
describes how you voted for state and local offices such as governor and senator?
(ROTATE CHOICES 1 THROUGH 7; TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP)
Straight Democratic .........................................................17%
Mostly Democratic...........................................................21%
A Few More Democrats Than Republicans....................6%
About Equally For Both Parties .....................................12%
A Few More Republicans Than Democrats....................7%
Mostly Republican ...........................................................19%
Straight Republican .........................................................16%
Other (Volunteered)...........................................................2%
Never Voted (Volunteered) ..............................................1%
Ref/DK (Volunteered) ......................................................2%
TOTAL BEHAVIORAL DEMOCRATS ........................38%
TOTAL TICKET SPLITTERS ..........................................24%
TOTAL BEHAVIORAL REPUBLICANS......................34%
XIII. What is your occupation? (ASK AS AN OPEN-ENDED QUESTION AND
RECORD ANSWER IN MARGIN. DO NOT READ CATEGORIES.)
White Collar—Upper, Business/Professional .............17%
White Collar—Lower, Clerical/Sales..............................9%
Blue Collar—Upper, Skilled Trade/Foreman .............10%
Blue Collar—Lower, Operative/Laborer .......................7%
Business Owner..................................................................3%
Governmental Employee ..................................................5%
Farmer/Rancher.................................................................1%
Housewife/Homemaker...................................................8%
Student.................................................................................4%
Unemployed/Laid Off ......................................................5%
Retired................................................................................28%
Other/Ref/DK (Volunteered)..........................................5%
XIV. Which of the following income groups include your TOTAL FAMILY INCOME
in 2011 before taxes? Just stop me when I get to the correct category.
(READ A-H)
A. $0 to 10,000 (9,999).....................................................4%
B. $10,000 to 20,000 (19,999)..........................................6%
C. $20,000 to 30,000 (29,999)..........................................7%
D. $30,000 to 40,000 (39,999)..........................................9%
E. $40,000 to 50,000 (49,999)..........................................8%
F. $50,000 to 75,000 (74,999)........................................12%
G. $75,000 to 100,000 (99,999)......................................13%
H. Over $100,000...........................................................16%
Ref/DK (Volunteered)............................................25%
That completes our interview. Thank you for sharing your opinions.
XV. Gender (BY OBSERVATION: DO NOT ASK)
Male....................................................................................48%
Female................................................................................52%
Obamugabe is spending tons of money in south Florida....running an ad of Bill the sink stainer Clinton talking about how kick ass Obamugabe’s economic plan is.
Runs all the damn time.
Detroit, where the soul comes cheap.
I saw somwething on local news here in Michigan that says that Romney has a barrage of ads to start in Michigan on September 24th.
I heard my first Romney radio ad in two weeks on the a.m. drive to work yesterday.
Unless you count the hapless Mr. Ford, who was born in NE, no President has come from MI.
Won't vote for Obama or Romney?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ny/new_york_romney_vs_obama-2868.html
With 600 responses the margin of error is 4%.
TOTAL DEMOCRATS ....................................................34%
TOTAL INDEPENDENTS ..............................................34%
TOTAL REPUBLICANS..................................................30%
How representative is that for MI? Is this sampling accurate?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/
$2.3 million Sept. 1 to Sept. 9
add: Americans for Prosperity (Kochs)
$2.2 million Sept. 1 to Sept. 9
add: American Crossroads (Rove)
$1.2 million Sept. 1 to Sept. 9
TOTAL: $6.7 m.
versus Obama
$7.9 million Sept. 1 to Sept. 9
WHERE?
the following is cumulative, I don’t know where money was spent by week. I’ll return to this.
CO, FL, IA, MI, MN*, NC, NH, NM*, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI
*Americans for Prosperity only
Chatter indicates that the race spending has re-focused on the following eight states:
CO, FL, IA, NH, NV, OH, VA and WI
Plus, I’m thinking MO may become a real problem for us Assuming we keep MO, we need FL + OH + VA + any other state.
I think it is pretty good based on 2010 results. I can not find any data to confirm it. The independent sample seems a little high but who knows. The election will turn on participation. I always pray for heavy rain in metro Detroit.
I think it is pretty good based on 2010 results. I can not find any data to confirm it. The independent sample seems a little high but who knows. The election will turn on participation. I always pray for heavy rain in metro Detroit.
Sorry about the double post.
what’s the breakdown on Independents?? anyone know??
How much of that is Romney spending? I don’t understand why Missouri would be a problem, by the way. It’s not like Romney and the rest of the GOP elites trashed the GOP candidate or anything.
The top line, $2.3 m. The post was to answer a question, part of a thread.
With regard to the trashing, it’s visa versa as well. Loo-Loo Achin’ is claiming the GOP establishment is raping her husband. Good thing that a politician’s body normally shuts down in such instances. It’s very rare that political rape results in pregnancy. First, we had Romney and others seeking to save their skin from Achin’, and now we have Achin’ taking down the whole ticket in return.
I could not find a split in the poll documents, just this form the article.:
Among self-described independents, Obama was leading 45 percent to 38 percent, with 16 percent undecided.
King said more independents are undecided than in the spring poll, meaning Obama has yet to close the deal with that all-important group, leaving the door open for Romney.
“That is a group that has been shifting back and forth throughout this campaign. The issue of unemployment and the economy is overshadowing everything,” he said, arguing that some independents are not sold that Obama can turn around the economy.
I’m in MI and have probably hung up on 20 poll calls. They have all been robo calls. No time and I already know how I am voting.
Thanks Kabar!
Well then, it looks as if every poll has independents going for Romney. Yet the polls, except Ras, have Obama winning.
Just repeating what I saw...don't know if it's true.
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