how accurate is this poll? every poll I see shows something different...
Not that this means anything this time around but as I recall, Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in 2008.
Rasmussen graded most accurate in 2008.
The answer is in the internals.
"Romney has solidified the GOP vote and holds a 77-point lead among Republicans. That’s slightly larger than Obama’s 72-point advantage among Democrats."
Romney has a 5 point lead in a straight matchup of Democrat vs. Republican. Every poll for the last month shows him with a 5 point or greater lead among independents. So this poll has to be heavily weighted toward Democrats.
In 2010 Republicans turnout exceeded Democrat. Polls on party affiliation this summer indicate that Republican registration is about 1 to 2 points higher than Democrat.
Put it all together and it says Republican and Democrat turnout should be about equal or slightly Republican. Romney is sitting pretty good at the moment.
In Mid-October, the pollsters will use a more balanced Democrat-Republican mix. They have to have an accurate showing to preserve their reputation. At that time Romney's real lead will show.
This website has been cited here before; it recalculates the polls to try to get a more realistic assessment:
\\http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
Rasmussen is gold.
This is the poll.
Very, good to see!