Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Romney +4, but 0bama approval still high @ 48%)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9-2-12 | Scott Rasmussen

[Norman Bates]

All of that is built into the margin of error and effectively minimized through scientific polling methods (i.e., polling 600 instead of 60).

Hang ups are overcome through proper model construction based on known voter registration statistics.

You can look at it as being similar to the effective elimination of stock-specific risk through the creation of a diversified portfolio.

[SaraJohnson]

We can’t believe any polls during an election. No one has any integrity to trust anymore. It’s all professional propaganda gaming.

[LS]

Well said. The difficulty this time around is that while both national and state polls are close, so many of the assumptions are questionable, I.e.oversampling Dems.

The other difficulty this time around is that so much of the micro data seems to point to a landslide, or a very big victory for Romney. For ex, the fact that by almost every poll shows CT close and "in play", the poll from northern VA showing Obama barely up in a region he won by 23%, the agreement of every poll that the indies have swung heavily toward Romney. On the other hand, while the trend is good, Romney still trails in NV and hasn't opened up any room in OH.

So my optimistic side goes with the former data.