Posted on 08/07/2012 5:09:07 PM PDT by GR_Jr.
With Obama maintaining a small but persistent lead in national polls — and a seemingly larger one in key swing states — the Romney campaign has taken to comparing this race to the 1980 campaign, in which Jimmy Carter held a lead until voters swung sharply to Ronald Reagan in the final stretch. “Romney aides believe strongly that this race will play out like the 1980 campaign,” Byron York wrote recently.
This race will all but certainly tighten this fall, and it remains a toss up. But the comparison to 1980 struck me as flawed. I checked in with former Reagan adviser Ed Rollins, who worked communications on that campaign, and he agrees — there are very significant differences that make a last minute swing far less likely.
Reason one: Obama is a better and more likable politician than Jimmy Carter was, and Romney has not proven himself to be Ronald Reagan.
“There’s no question that on his best day, he’s not a Ronald Reagan,” Rollins said of Romney. “Traditionally incumbents don’t do as well in debates as challengers for the simple reason that challengers have to stand on the stage and look like an equal. Romney can do that, but Obama is good. He’s likeable. Carter was never likeable.”
“Romney is not proving yet that he has the solutions,” Rollins adds, noting that Carter had a very bad debate moment on nuclear proliferation. Obama is unlikely to make any major mistakes in the debates. Reagan hammered Carter for mismanaging the economy and national security; Obama is far harder to attack on the latter front....
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
What’s more, this election will hinge heavily on base turnout, and the geographical area at play is far narrower than in 1980. “The battlefield is much smaller — it’s a totally different electorate,” Rollins says.
Reason three: Rollins notes that both campaigns — unlike in 1980 — will have all the resources they need, which limits the likelihood of a last minute swing and could reinforce the role of the base in the outcome. ”Obama has put an enormous sum into building his infrastructure,” Rollins says. “With such a saturation in TV buying between now and the election, things aren’t going to break through.”
If Romney is to win, it will have to be “ground out” over time, Rollins says, adding that a last minute dramatic swing “is awful hard to envision.”
Obama will win ten or less states.
The Democrats also have millions of illegal aliens to count on as well that weren’t around in 1980. They’ve been playing the demographics game, and they’re winning.
Sadly, millions of people who voted for Reagan are with him in heaven now.
The media is delusional. They think the myth of Obama of 2008 actually existed. He didn’t then, and definitely does not now. This isn’t 1980. He’s losing and fairly handily now. It won’t be a wipeout because some blue states are not attainable, but the margin will be significant.
It could be like 1980 but Romney needs to start getting tough like Reagan. If he learns anything, he has to learn this and do it Reagan style.
The majority of Americans believe that decency prevents them from saying, out loud, that the black guy can’t cut it. They won’t tell pollsters that and they won’t tell their neighbors that. They will vote for Romney.
It’s going to be a tight race... Until about 7:02 pm EST or so.
More likable than Jimmy? I always thought Jimmy was a likable idiot while Obama is mean and divisive.
He needs to choose a Conservative running mate who can get Conservatives energized. If he goes with a RINO, he'll probably lose much of the ABO vote and the election.
IMHO.
I agree, that's crazy. I thought that Jimmy and Rosalynn would make OK -- albeit goofy -- neighbors. I'd never want to live anywhere Zero was my neighbor. He's just a mean, nasty, vengeful narcissist with delusions of godhood. I couldn't possibly live far enough away from him without moving to another planet.
Because Slick Willard ain’t Reagan. Dump his Socialist ass and run Gov. Scott Walker !
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Romney wins the electoral college with 292.
Agreed. I see CA, HI, IL and that is about it.
I was only a teenager back in 1980 but I remember that Reagan didn’t get any positive press. The media ignored him except for those that dismissed him as just an “actor” playing a role.
Romney is getting zero positive coverage, with the media attacking him as a “capitalist”, but using it as a pejorative and dismissing him.
I see parallels but the electoral reality on the past 16 years is what it is. The democrats have locked up the high population states, save a few and the Repubs have locked up the smaller population states, save a few. the swing states will again be the story and I don’t think Obama wins any.
I’ve stated this before, the states that Obama wins, will be by a much smaller margin, the states he loses will be convincing fashion. I expect a Bush 2004 type electoral victory but with a higher percentage of the popular vote.
Years of Leftist indoctrination in the pubic schools has taken its toll. Morals have clearly declined and demographics are less favorable for conservatives right now. In 1980, there really were some conservative Democrats that supported tax cuts and small business in the South, Midwest and West. Parties tended to be more regional and responsive to their constituent values.
We will have a last chance to restore the free market and Constituional government before the demographic tsunami. We must prove to minorities that freedom is something worth fighting for if we are going to prevail in future elections and preserve liberty.
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