Skip to comments.Declining Views of the Economy Put Obama's Re-election at Risk
Posted on 07/28/2012 5:17:42 AM PDT by Kaslin
Consumer confidence fell to the lowest levels of 2012 this past week. Most Americans believe that both the economy and their own personal finances are getting worse. Just 25 percent believe the economy is getting better, and only 22 percent say the same about their personal finances.
Still, the lows of 2012 aren't nearly as bad as they were in the previous three years. But the trend is discouraging. It looks like yet another year starting with improved outlooks for the economy that fade by summer, and it's clearly taking a toll on the American people.
In the summer of 2009, 58 percent thought the economy would be stronger within five years. By the summer of 2010, only 50 percent had such long-term optimism. By last summer, just 46 percent were that upbeat. And now only 40 percent think the economy will be stronger in five years.
That's a pretty depressing trend.
It's especially depressing when you realize that every single night during those four years, a majority of Americans believed the country was in a recession.
Think about that for a moment. Regardless of what the economists say, most Americans believe we are in a recession and have been for more than four years. Despite that dismal starting point, just 40 percent think things will get better in five years.
This suggests that underlying perceptions of the economy have taken a darker turn. Back in 2009, most Americans thought the country was experiencing a normal business-cycle recession. It was harsher than most but expected to be a short-term matter. Throughout 2009, a plurality of Americans thought the economy would be better within a year.
Now, a plurality believes it will get worse over the next year, and many Americans are wondering if our nation will ever make it back. Only 14 percent now believe today's children will be better off than their parents. That's an all-time low.
This is the landscape for Election 2012. The economy is the big issue. People don't like President Obama's track record on the economy, but they're not sure Mitt Romney will do any better.
Some analysts have looked at the landscape and said it's just like the last time we had a president running for re-election. Like Obama today, George W. Bush in 2004 was a polarizing president leading the government of a divided nation. Bush's job approval ratings at this point in 2004 were pretty similar to where Obama's numbers are today.
However, one huge difference between 2004 and 2012 is that President Bush had trends moving in his direction. The big issue that year was the war on terror. In the summer of 2004, just 44 percent thought the United States and its allies were winning that war. In the five weeks running up to the election, however, confidence that our side was winning ranged from 49 percent to 52 percent.
As confidence in Bush's handling of the war improved, so did his job approval rating. That enabled him to post a narrow victory over Sen. John Kerry.
For this president to earn a similar victory over a wealthy Massachusetts challenger in 2012, he will need to improve his own job approval rating between now and Election Day. For that to happen, perceptions of the economy will have to reverse their current downward trend.
Allowing the Senate and House to slip around and avoid the budget topic....was morally wrong (issue number one).
This sequestration deal....which is barely five months away...will set up one of the biggest issues ever to hit legislative or executive branches of the government (issue number two). As the election occurs, there will be roughly 200k notices going out to both contractor and DoD civilians, which will create this massive wave of negativity. Just imagine 10k government employees in the national capital region getting this notice of termination just a month before Christmas. And then you expect a miracle out of Congress and the Senate, with a President who signs what they draft? It’s already too late by that point to undo massive damage.
Banking failures (third issue). Anyone noted that banks are still failing across the nation?
Homes under water, or sitting empty now for the third (maybe fourth) straight year (fourth issue)?
Healthcare costs unknown....even two years later? (fifth issue) Medicare failure on the horizon? 2700 pages of a law that no one ever read?
I would almost suggest that we fire them all....hire NFL’s Commissioner Roger Goodell to run the country for five years, and accept the commissioner’s rulings.
Declining Views of the Economy Put Obama’s Re-election at Risk
I am so sick and tired of everything being about that POS... 360 million Americans have been adversely impacted by the election of this ignorant Marxist POS, and the corrupt media is only concerned about how the bad economy effects the POS.
Part of the perception that Romney may not do better, stems from the fear that no politician today has the country’s best interests at heart over his own best interests. The country at large has lost faith in its political class. (I apologize for using the words “political” and “class” together in a sentence...)
In this case, I'll let it slide because the word 'class' does have the word 'ass' in it.
See? That's what I mean. He may well surprise us, but that's exactly what it would be; a surprise. This election will most likely turn on a referendum against Obama, rather than a vote for Romney.
Yet, even should he do well, much depends on a congress that's overly populated by global elitists. A swing to GOP control doesn't necessarily change that dynamic.
At risk is one of those liberal phrases meaning; This simply cant be allowed. At risk youth, at risk environmental funding, at risk high speed rail transport funding
I agree Im tired of everything being about Obama. Cant discuss the economy, jobs, the disintegrating world situation? What we are seeing a personality cult. Its scary.
Ohio to loose more jobs
That's why we have TEA party members.
Do you go to town hall meeting with your congress critters, both state and national?
If not, don't bitch.
If you do you know that they will listen if you have enough people.
Yes I do. And, I'll bitch any time I care to.
Shortly after the 2008 election I had a long conversation with a close friend who is politically very conservative but is also very astute about the U.S. political scene. This is a guy who might accurately be described as a Pat Buchanan or Ron Paul supporter. I asked him which prominent Republican he thought would be the best President of the U.S. -- aside from whether or not the candidate was even electable for political or cultural reasons.
His answer surprised the heck out of me. He said he thought Mitt Romney was the most capable, effective person to run for the White House since World War II.
I didn't understand that until he elaborated on it, but what he was really saying was that Romney was the guy who would be most effective at serving as the chief executive of a nation of 300+ million people and addressing any difficult, unforeseen issue that comes up during the 4-8 years he would be in office.
I'm not a fan of Romney at all, but during these troubled times I always find myself going back and remembering my friend's comments.
Remember the MSM is still lying and covering up for him.
We’ll see the same illegal overseas and other contributions
We’ll see voter fraud ten times worse
We’ll see the race card pulled as never before
Don’t think the rats will give up their Communist coup without a struggle.
This will be the dirtiest fight in election history
We’ll be lucky if we EVER get rid of the Marxist/Muslim pos.
During the election campaigns, the press, invariably, repeated the same thing over and over again about
Mr. Bush’s tenure in the White House, ad nauseum;
“The worst economy in fifty years”, even though there was less than 5% unemployment and the economy was buzzing.
The audacity of Progressives is absolutely amazing, disgusting and disheartening.
Now that we have the worst economy in fifty years, it’s not really the worst economy in fifty years, but an economy that’s slowly coming around, that will take another Obama term to make right because of “the mistakes of the past”.
I agree 100% and I have personally been hit hard by his policies, but I pray that the economy continues to stay bad through the election, so he will become just a very unpleasant footnote in history.
I'm starting to think that too.
Correction: Unlike the Senate, the House has not avoided the budget subject
Yeah, and if that arrogant, lazy, lying pos gets reelected and nothing changes is he going to ask for a third term?
“Yeah, and if....he gets elected and nothing changes is he going to ask for a third term?”
No. He will institute the dictatorship of the proletariat by eliminating the electoral college and term limits
and the “proletariat” of the United States will take care of the rest.
While the views of the economy may be falling, I think the headline could be more accurately written:
Views of the Economy Put Obama's Re-election at Risk
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