That is probably what the Russians are provoking.
Take a look at a map. Tartous Naval base is "just up the street" from Isral. Only 140 miles.
If the Russians want to prevent a successful attack on Iran's nuke facilities at Natanz it can sit right there and monitor every aircraft and radio transmission from that base.
If a suspicious flight takes off in Israel and starts a potential route that could lead to Iran the Russians can immediately detect it.
A north route will take them right by the Tartous base.
A central or southern route could be tracked as well, long enough to determine the likely destination (Iran). The shorter southern route will probably be off the table, given the current "nature" of our present administration.
A launch of Israel Jericho III land-based long range ballistic missiles would be immediately detected as well.
An attack on Tartous would play right into the Russians hands. They rekindled their effort to upgrade the base in 2009, about the same time the Iran nuclear threat became valid. Such an attack would provide them the "defense" excuse in that theater to do anything they like.
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