Posted on 07/20/2012 4:38:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I hinted at it in June, and now I’m saying it outright in July: President Obama is going to lose this election if something doesn’t change in a significant way.
How can I possibly assert such a thing if election-prediction savant Nate Silver of The New York Times currently gives Obama a 66 percent chance of winning? Well, Silver has a fancy-shmancy mysterious data machine full of yummy variables.
I’m applying common sense.
Less than four months until the election, the Real Clear Politics average of all national surveys has Obama at 46.2 percent, vs. 45 percent for Mitt Romney.
That’s not a good number for an incumbent. If there is one politician in America everybody knows and has heard and has an opinion of, it’s the president, Barack Obama. The general rule of thumb for someone seeking re-election is that he is in some trouble if he’s under 50 percent.
Granted, the RCP average had George W. Bush at 42.7 percent at this point in 2004 and he went on to win. So why is 2012 different?
Here’s why: In 2004, the central issues facing the country were a net negative for Bush in July. By November, those issues had become a net positive for him, and Bush won.
It’s hard to see how the central issue facing the country in 2012 is going to become a net positive for Obama.
The key to 2004 wasn’t Bush’s head-to-head numbers against John Kerry but rather the public’s approval or disapproval of the war in Iraq and his handling of the War on Terror.
In July, the CBS News poll showed that 45 percent of the public thought Iraq was the right thing to do. That was when Bush was at 42.7 percent against Kerry.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
I agree with this comment on the NY Post site:
Obama is firing all his artillery way too early, it’s not having much of an impact, they’re essentially tied, and Romney is doing the classic rope a dope.If the economy continues on the current path, and there’s no reason to believe otherwise, no one, including Princess Nancy will give a hoot about tax returns or bank accounts. Like the Republican primaries, we have yet to see the full scope of the Romney relentless blitz against Newt and Ric...it’s coming.
Bad Economy Taking Its Toll On Obama
By Josh Kraushaar
July 19, 2012 | 6:56 a.m.
The first round of polls is out after President Obama’s Bain attacks against Mitt Romney and the results aren’t good news for the White House. By themselves, the national toplines are discouraging enough - Romney holds a (statistically-insignificant) 47 to 46 percent lead in the new CBS/NYT poll, and the president is stuck at 47 percent in the just-released Fox News and NPR poll in 12 battleground states.
But beneath the head-to-head numbers, the results foreshadow some tough times ahead for Obama. Voters appear to be processing the worsening economic news belatedly, and their pessimism shows in spades. In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama’s job approval dropped to 44 percent, with only 39 percent approving of his economic performance - down five points from April. For the first time since January, more voters now think the economy is getting worse. Nearly two-thirds of voters now place some blame on the president for the weak economic conditions, with 34 percent giving him “significant” responsibility. An outright 52 percent majority of independents believe Obama will “never improve” the economy. These aren’t numbers that victories are made of.
And in a sign that the newfound negative tone of the campaign may be backfiring, the poll showed Obama’s favorability ratings - always his strong suit - at an all-time low as president. Only 36 percent in the NYT/CBS poll view him favorably, a six-point drop over the last three months, with 48 percent viewing him unfavorably. Romney’s favorables aren’t good, either - 32/36 fav/unfav - but mutually assured destruction isn’t going to win the election for the president.
The state-by-state numbers aren’t any more encouraging. Quinnipiac’s just-released poll of Virginia voters shows Obama and Romney tied, with Obama only polling at 44 percent. Among non-college educated whites, Obama’s job approval dropped even further, down to 29 percent, with only 40 percent of college-educated whites approving of his job performance. To compensate in the Old Dominion, Obama would need overwhelming support from minorities and turnout comparable to their 2008 levels.
All told, the numbers paint a picture of voters growing increasingly disillusioned with the president. By going hard negative against Romney, the president is landing some solid blows. But without much of a positive governing agenda to campaign on, it doesn’t look like that will be enough by itself.
http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/07/bad-economy-taking-its-toll-on.php
With at least nine states extremely tight, and he needs to win at least half of them...I think he ought to start worrying. He has to hope that Romney would pick another Palin-character and screw up the last month like McCain did. Anything other than that...just means more points going to Romney in the end. Being from Virginia....I’d say it’s pretty good odds that the state will slide just slightly toward Romney by November.
And the MSM propaganda polls in 1980 showed Carter with a 10 point lead over Reagan two weeks before the election.
Polls are propaganda tools used by the Goebbel’s media.
The only way to get an honest poll from the NYT or ABC is to threaten to kill them.
common sense is in short supply... never underestimate an obama voter.
common sense told us healthcare on a comunist model would fail too.
Just watch out for false flags people.
These guys create the crises that they then try to take advantage (ie power/control over) of.
Seriously would not put it past him to do it. He is the globalist / agenda 21 president. Agenda 21 is about global control via major environmental changes by control over people’s everyday lives. Basically herding us all into mega metropolitan areas (under democrat/lib control) and restricting our ability to move around outside these human zones.
Don’t cut dead brush, let the fires out west burn. take out houses of the rural folks. Buy up more and more land under various programs and initiatives and place it off limits to people. Hike gas prices up to force people to cut back on travel. Waste more and more money on phony energy programs for kickbacks and to prevent that money from helping make real energy gains (updating current plants, increasing capacity of current plants, making new plants). Harass travelling public with gestapo search processes via government union glorified baggage handlers. Expand these search areas from airports to bus terminals, railroads, ships, and freeway rest stops. Continue to use the paramilitary police forces against the public, and train ALL officers that first priority is officer safety, everything else is secondary, so shoot first and figure out how to cover any f*ck ups later.
Well, This Tennessee guy is now in North Carolina so I can guarantee at least one moonbat vote canceled out.
Common sense told us he would lose in 2008.
Common sense assumes an honest election.
I’m not even going to assume any election.
Common sense tells me he’s going to win. Romney - the annointed one - has zip zero nada ability to stir up enthusiasm, mostly because he’s exactly like Bambi but with a different skin color. And nobody cares about a candidate’s skin color (with the exception of black people, who would vote for anybody they were told was black, no matter how faux black he was...). Romney’s not going to get the famous cross-over or independent voters because there’s almost nothing to distinguish him from Obama, and he’s a lousy, synthetic and unlikeable candidate.
I think we have to concentrate on getting good people down the ticket. If we could get enough good, aggressive conservatives into the legislature, we might have a chance at paralyzing Obama’s Marxist project.
How ANYBODY could vote for Obama after this four year term of craziness, I cannot fathom. Democrat of not.
That’s because you don’t know any quasi communists.
You need to trade in your common sense for a new one that works.
Common sense tells us the vote fraud will be massive. they think they have to win it and are working very hard for it.
Good “down the ticket” people already elected, the Tea Party folks in 2010 have enthusiastically given us the current Homeland Security law with unlimited secret detention for anyone at all on a politician’s or bureaucrat’s “finding” that the person is dangerous to the government. These folks get to Washington and find that if they play along they get rich in one term and stay rich even if they lose the next election but if they stand on principle they don’t get rich no matter how long they stay there. They are POLITICIANS and very few will not make “compromises” to secure their own financial security.
I disagree. If you actually take the time and listen to him speak to crowds at campaign rallies you would think the opposite. The other day he seemed fired up and genuine when addressing Obama’s “you didn’t build your business” comments.
People think that he is all of those things you think he is because that’s all they hear from the media and they then start to believe it. Thank goodness he has his convention speech and the debates to introduce himself to a lot of voters that don’t really know him.
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