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Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?
National Review ^ | 14 Jul 2012 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 07/14/2012 7:59:44 AM PDT by mandaladon

My regular correspondent Number-Cruncher checks in, groaning about the latest Pew poll and that organization’s strange habit of including an unrealistic percentage of Democrats in their sample.

The latest one from Pew poll is a shining example of why our side gets so frustrated with polls. Every time a Pew poll comes out, the numbers appear out of whack. Of course if you are a number-cruncher and look to the cross-tabs, the results are clearly flawed. Pew, to its credit, tells us its history since 1988. Basically in 1988 they did a good job, calling the race almost perfectly, possibly even overestimating Bush support by 0.4% (keep in mind they round so 50-42 could be 7.6%). But since then, their results have been downhill.

Starting in 1992, EVERY Pew poll appears to lean to one direction — always towards the Democrat, and by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Worse this is a reflection of the “final” poll which even the Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, usually gets right.

October 1988 — Bush 50 Dukakis 42; Actual Result Bush +7.6 (Call this one spot on.)

Late October 1992 — Clinton 44 Bush 34; Actual Result :Clinton +5.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +5.5)

November 1996 — Clinton +51 Dole 32; Actual Result Clinton +8.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +10.5)

November 2000 — Gore 45; Bush 41 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.5)

November 2004 — Kerry 46; Bush 45 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.4)

November 2008 — Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; corruption; democrats; electionfraud; elections; fraud; obama; polls; romney
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To: July4
Since many liberals neither work nor spend much time with their families, it’s not hard to see why their opinions might be overrepresented.

You keep right on telling yourself those things.

41 posted on 07/14/2012 2:58:20 PM PDT by newzjunkey
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To: All


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42 posted on 07/14/2012 2:58:20 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: mandaladon

Oh! I know!!
It makes Zero look better.
They hope the fake “poll” results will engender a bandwagon effect.

And they’re right.

Sadly.


43 posted on 07/14/2012 3:39:07 PM PDT by kinsman redeemer (The real enemy seeks to devour what is good.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Hope so.


44 posted on 07/14/2012 3:50:18 PM PDT by freedomtrail (EEOC- Eventual Elimination Of Caucasians)
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To: freedomtrail
Upon further reflection, I think they are doing it to provide cover for the massive Democrat election fraud that is on tap.
45 posted on 07/14/2012 4:09:30 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: mandaladon
Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?

DUH...

46 posted on 07/14/2012 4:21:18 PM PDT by luvie (Never forget...WE have THEM surrounded! ~ Rush Limbaugh)
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To: mandaladon

Pollster called me up the other night, I kept asking “which one is the democrat” and then when they said I said “I am voting for them”.

I hold pollsters in contempt so much I give them nothing but garbage data.


47 posted on 07/14/2012 4:25:20 PM PDT by GraceG
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To: mandaladon
Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?

I'm hoping that's a rhetorical question.

48 posted on 07/14/2012 4:31:06 PM PDT by upchuck ("Definition of 'racist:' someone that is winning an argument with a liberal." ~ Peter Brimelow)
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To: mandaladon

They are just adjusting for voter fraud. Dems tend to vote more than one.


49 posted on 07/14/2012 4:38:05 PM PDT by Diggity
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To: mandaladon

Polls have been skewed for a long time.

I remember the polls for Reagan & Carter as a dead heat until the very end. When I saw the cover of Newsweek the week of the election, it looked like it would be a close race. I never thought Reagan would win in a landside.

Cover of Newsweek Nov. 3, 1980: http://www.tias.com/11804/PictPage/1922502015.html


50 posted on 07/14/2012 4:41:43 PM PDT by Atlantan
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To: mandaladon

The question answers itself.


51 posted on 07/14/2012 7:26:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Difference between successful people & everyone else is they do what they donÂ’t want to do)
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To: mandaladon

Um, because they *always* oversample Democrats because polling is as much about shaping public opinion as it is reporting public opinion.

The pollsters stopped being objective a few generations ago.


52 posted on 07/14/2012 8:35:16 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: mandaladon
My regular correspondent Number-Cruncher checks in, groaning about the latest Pew poll and that organization’s strange habit of including an unrealistic percentage of Democrats in their sample...Interesting talk by David Horowitz on C-Span today about his latest book which looks at how so many of the biggest foundations in the coutnry have been taken over by the "progressive" leftists who as a result have something like 200 times the money conservative groups have to spread their propaganda around - mentioned Pew specifically and an example of how their CEO simply lied outright when challenged about their spending and orientation - this is why they have the "strange habit" of always including more 'rats in their samples than reality dictates - because they want 'rat candidates to win, and they they're habitual liars who never get seriously challenged for their mendacity.......
53 posted on 07/14/2012 9:55:01 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: Intolerant in NJ
...and they they're habitual liars who never get seriously challenged for their mendacity.......

Remember that until relatively recently (concurrent with the rise of alternative media) the liberals have had exclusive control of the public dialog through their dominance of the media. They have controlled the meme for so long that they simply can't fathom being challenged. When they are, they react with visceral hatred and lash out at any and all who might challenge them. In the past, this has sufficed to cow any challengers. But such is not always the case now, and it freaks them out.

54 posted on 07/14/2012 11:17:17 PM PDT by chimera
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Truth points to itself...

You sound like a vorlon....


55 posted on 07/15/2012 12:51:25 AM PDT by GraceG
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To: cpa4you
Thanks for the reply. Also, what a lot of people seem to miss, is the revenue piece. The media needs the story line to be a "close race" so that literally millions of dollars in ads are purchased, to meet their revenue goals (presidential elections are only every 4 years, so this volume of revenue is not available every year). If it was a total blowout and one candidate was leading By 10 pts then the money well would dry up rather quickly.

Always look at the macro view and the money angle and you'll see the real story line.

INBN

56 posted on 07/15/2012 4:09:45 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

Big campaigns also are driven by some pretty high-powered “consultants.” I’d not be surprised to learn that an awful lot of the money spent directly benefits them. Big ad buys make someone a lot of money!

I lead campaign finance audits for the FEC for five years and can say, with certainty, that more that one consultant or campaign manager personally benefited. Just check the FEC’s web site (fec.gov) and see where the money goes, and, to whom?


57 posted on 07/15/2012 6:07:20 PM PDT by cpa4you (CPA4YOU)
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To: mandaladon

Because that’s how it’s always been done.


58 posted on 07/15/2012 6:18:55 PM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: mandaladon

Polls before the election are all rigged. Ignore them.


59 posted on 07/15/2012 6:20:51 PM PDT by bmwcyle (Corollary - Electing the same person over and over and expecting a different outcome is insanity)
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