Jay Cost: Why Obama Is in Trouble

Weekly Standard ^ | 07/11/2012 | Jay Cost

[SeekAndFind]

When you see a new poll, what do you look at first? With the general election campaign nominally underway, most people would say that they look at the head-to-head matchup between President Obama and Mitt Romney.

But I’m still intensely focused on the president’s job approval numbers.

The reason has to do with my view of a presidential campaign when an incumbent is on the ballot. Based on my read of the history and the political science research on the subject, I’ve put together a rough outline of how the average voter makes up his mind. It looks something like this:

Basically, the vote choice begins with the broadest consideration of American politics – i.e. which party you affiliate with – and then on to how you think the country is doing. Together, those two factors likely determine whether you think the incumbent president has done a good job.

All of that happens before the campaign has even begun. This serves as the backdrop for how you respond to the campaign. If, for instance, you are a Democrat who thinks the country is on the right track and Obama has done a good job, the hurdle Mitt Romney will have to jump is, for all intents and purposes, insuperable. If, on the other hand, you’re a partisan Republican who thinks the country is in terrible shape and Obama is awful, then the GOP already has your vote in the bag.

[SeekAndFind]

The following chart compares Obama’s job approval among whites, African Americans, and Hispanics (averaged over the last four weeks) against the performance of the Democratic candidate for president in 1988, 2004, and 2008.



The last Democrat to win a majority of the white vote was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Obviously, Democrats do not need to win a majority of whites to win the White House, but they need more than 37 percent.

Note as well that Obama's numbers with African Americans and Hispanics are off their highs, at least at the moment.

[SeekAndFind]

What about partisan identification?

[SeekAndFind]

Finally, what about geographical regions?



This is very bad news for President Obama. Most of the swing states are in the Midwest, and he is doing quite badly there at the moment, with approval numbers that correspond roughly to what Dukakis pulled in 1988.

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE REST OF THE ANALYSIS...

[reefdiver]

The leftest democrat party was handed it’s walking papers two years ago November. A major defeat, Kicked Nancy in the ass, Had zer0 been part of that ticket He would of been gone.

He goes this November

So do more Leftest democrats

But the damage is done. Cities shutting down cause they are broke, the ex cops, they and the firefighters will want the money, its not there. Big battles on the horizon.

[reefdiver]

The leftest democrat party was handed it’s walking papers two years ago November. A major defeat, Kicked Nancy in the ass, Had zer0 been part of that ticket He would of been gone.

He goes this November

So do more Leftest democrats

But the damage is done. Cities shutting down cause they are broke, the ex cops, they and the firefighters will want the money, its not there. Big battles on the horizon.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

We’ve turned a corner:

America must start making things again.

Soon. Now. And big.

Not someday. Not eventually. NOW.

[Tennessean4Bush]

With Romney raising money at a much higher clip and virtually even to a tick or two higher in LV polls, Obama is toast. Factor in the groups like American Crossroads and Chamber of Commerce, etc., that are spending big in swing states right now, Romney can continue to build his war chest and bring it to bear in Sep and Oct. The big fear I had was Romney being out of cash and Obama just burying him with ads defining him and nothing on air to rebut and strike back at those ads during late Spring and early Summer. Clinton buried Dole in late Spring and early Summer. Dole was out of money after a fairly long primary, and there was no ability for super PACs to come to his rescue. He was completely defined by the time the conventions happened and Dole got matching funds. Of course, Dole was an uninspiring speaker and leader. That did not help.

[Roscoe Karns]

The Obama campaign has already posted a point by point rebuttal here

[Gay State Conservative]

Republican support for Osama is *higher* today than it was in '08? That doesn't sound right at all!

[Josa]

A good place to start would be the Space Program.

[nascarnation]

Republican support for Osama is *higher* today than it was in '08? That doesn't sound right at all!

Just the number of Mitty haters on FR is enough to tweak that stat upwards, no?

[MNDude]

Wait, he went from 9% to 11% with republicans?

[Tennessean4Bush]

Roscoe, that is perfect. LOL!!

[Gay State Conservative]

Just the number of Mitty haters on FR is enough to tweak that stat upwards, no?

I thought the Mitt haters were planning to vote for some reincarnation of Ronald Reagan or write in Palin.If they're actually gonna *vote* for Osama then they're sicker than I imagined.

[Signalman]

11% of “Republicans” are voting for Obama. And about half of them are right here posting on FR.

[DNME]

I’m just terrified at what Obummer will do if/when he realizes he’s toast.

He will NOT go quietly.

And we might want to plan a gathering of patriots — a real BIG gathering — to keep the coming Lame Duck session from turning into a genuine nightmare.

[reed13k]

it’ll take more than the repeal of obamacare. regulations of every kind are killing industry.

[skeama]

Not sure why I typed 'deepness' ... too late now ...

This is the absolute worst case scenario I can see. This election is over.

Time to focus on the senate races.

[neverdem]

Republican support for Osama is *higher* today than it was in '08? That doesn't sound right at all!

You're talking about 9 versus 11 percent. The sampling error for those small percentages is probably much larger than you appreciate. Do you think there are more RINO voters now? I doubt it. It's about 10 percent plus or minus X. For all intents and purposes, they are the same number.

[Nik Naym]

“If they’re actually gonna *vote* for Osama then they’re sicker than I imagined. “

So you figure those of us who won’t vote Romney are sick? Is that what I am reading?

[Nik Naym]

“11% of “Republicans” are voting for Obama. And about half of them are right here posting on FR.”

I have not seen one post on FR where anyone said they were going to vote for Obama.

I would be curious to read them if they exist. Can you point me to some?

[babble-on]

He specifically said only if you’re going to vote for Obama instead.

[Sequoyah101]

Those are here and I don’t know why. They have a few of the other nitwits along with them as well.

[GlockThe Vote]

Until he is gone I will suffer sleepless nights.

[chuckee]

Who are the 11% of Republicans that approve of his performance?

[SamAdams76]

Republican support for Osama is *higher* today than it was in '08? That doesn't sound right at all!

Must be the ABR Freepers weighing in.

[CharacterCounts]

No, he definitely implied that anyone not voting for Romney was sick and if they were voting for Obama, they were sicker. But, it was an insult tossed at all conservatives who were not voting for his boy.

[Nik Naym]

“He specifically said only if you’re going to vote for Obama instead.”

No, he did not. What he said was:

“If they’re actually gonna *vote* for Osama then they’re sicker than I imagined. “

Words mean things and I have excellent reading comprehension skills.

[Nik Naym]

“Must be the ABR Freepers weighing in. “

Sam, some of us are ABO/ABR. Is that really so hard to comprehend?

And most of us are resigned to the reality that it will probably be Romney. But we don’t have to like it and we don’t have to be a party to it.

I don’t and I won’t.

[SamAdams76]

Not hard to comprehend at all. That’s why I mentioned it!

[Nik Naym]

Then where are these Obama supporting Freepers you alluded to?

[CharacterCounts]

Most of the Freepers voting for Romney aren't ABO's.

They are Romney Is Not Obama.

And their acronym is RINO.

[Tanniker Smith]

You got me.

[Rembrandt]

“With Romney raising money at a much higher clip...”

Also bear in mind that Corporations (those sweet citizens) have not been investing in new equipment or personnel due to uncertainty about OBozo’s policies. They can/will spend heavily to get rid of the Communist at 1600 Pa!

[Always A Marine]

Sam, some of us are ABO/ABR. Is that really so hard to comprehend? And most of us are resigned to the reality that it will probably be Romney. But we don’t have to like it and we don’t have to be a party to it. I don’t and I won’t.

Statistically speaking, a Conservative who votes for a third party or sits out the election is casting a one-half vote for Obama. On the other hand, a Socialist who votes for a third party or who sits out the election is casting a one-half vote for Romney.

One of two men will be President: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. Those are our choices - our only choices. I hope you won't depend solely upon others to do your job for you on November 6, but that will be your choice.

[Nik Naym]

A vote for Obama is a vote for Obama.

No other vote is a vote for Obama, in whole or in part.

And I DO make my own choices, thank you very much.

I won’t let a bunch of elitist left leaning Republican Party ass kissers make my choices for me.

I am not a Republican.

[Always A Marine]

A vote for Obama is a vote for Obama. No other vote is a vote for Obama, in whole or in part. And I DO make my own choices, thank you very much. I won’t let a bunch of elitist left leaning Republican Party ass kissers make my choices for me. I am not a Republican.

I believe your frustration clouds your judgment, Nik Naym. The statistical effect of third-party voting and abstention is a fact whether you intend that effect or not. Here's another way of looking at it...

Suppose a unit of Marines is under attack and faces being overrun by the enemy. One of the two sides is going to win the battle. Some of the Marines despise their leader, so a few decide to shoot at the trees instead of the onrushing enemy, while a few others decide not to shoot at all. Would you believe them if they insisted that they weren't really helping the enemy by their inaction? [Hint: This is why Officers and Staff NCOs carry pistols.]

You have every right to help Obama win reelection this fall with your refusal to vote for the only man who can unseat him. But I certainly hope you will join the battle.

[piasa]

"Is that what I am reading?"

It may be what you think you are reading but it is obviously not what was written.

[Nik Naym]

“You have every right to help Obama win reelection this fall with your refusal to vote for the only man who can unseat him.”

I have tried being civil, but this is where you insult me.

You are accusing me of supporting Obama.

KISS MY ASS.

[Nik Naym]

“but it is obviously not what was written. “

It most certainly was.

[Always A Marine]

I have tried being civil, but this is where you insult me. You are accusing me of supporting Obama. KISS MY ASS.

I am always grateful to a liberal who votes for a Green candidate or chooses to sit out the election. Obama will be grateful to you if you vote for a third party candidate or choose to sit out the upcoming election altogether. Obama would be the indirect (one-half vote) beneficiary of such a choice by any Conservative voter.

Though I know it is not your intent to support Obama, you will be doing just that if you refuse to vote for the only other candidate in this two-man race. I am not insulting you. I am just pointing out the net effect of your stated choice, and I hope that you will change your mind.

[Nik Naym]

And now you are calling me a liberal, while stumping for Romney.

Go screw yourself.

I am sick of you romneybots thinking the only answer is to vote for YOUR liberal.

Go the hell away.

Piss off.

Go screw yourself.

And go a head and report me.

[Ann Archy]

I don’t think you are a smartass, I think you are a dumbass if you think that you aren’t voting for Obama if you don’t vote for Romney or vote 3rd party. Take that burden and live with it.....our country is at stake, we need to try Romney because Obama is RUINING it.

[ballplayer]

OHIO?

[Freddd]

If, for instance, you are a Democrat

If, on the other hand, you’re a partisan Republican -——

I stopped reading right there.

Democrats aren’t partisan, but Republicans are....no bias there, eh?

[Jabba the Nutt]

The Leftist Democrats are mostly in safe districts. They'll lose even more centrists and moderate Democrats to the GOP. Artur Davis put Obama name into nomination. He's black, he's from the South, he's left the Democrat Party.

The Democrats are going to come out of this as a pure socialist party.

[Always A Marine]

And now you are calling me a liberal, while stumping for Romney. Go screw yourself. I am sick of you romneybots thinking the only answer is to vote for YOUR liberal. Go the hell away. Piss off. Go screw yourself. And go a head and report me.

I'm not calling you a liberal; I just believe that you are misguided. And if I am a "Romneybot" now, then I was successively a "Perrybot" and then a "Cainbot" and then a "Newtbot" until each of my favored candidates fell out of the race. The reality is that Mitt Romney is our remaining alternative to Barack Obama.

I am not going anywhere, and the actions you suggest are biological impossibilities. And why would I want to "report" you to the hall monitor? I just hope you'll spend the next few months reconsidering your position, and that you'll cast your full vote against Obama on November 6.

[neverdem]

If you go to the source, it's actually

Morning Jay: Why Obama Is in Trouble

[ExSoldier]

One of my liberal colleagues, very much aware of my status as lifelong conservative has been trying to get me to vote libertarian and often uses Romney's faith as a wedge issue with other Christian conservatives (not just me). We all laugh at this guy. First because we know this liberal is an atheist and hence has more worries spiritually than we do, but most of all it is so readily apparent that the Obozo camp is in full on panic mode over November. They know that the pragmatists will be voting for Romney pretty much NOT because Romney makes us really believe that he's all that good for the country but rather because we all know that to vote any other way is to insure the destruction of the republic. This election isn't so much a pro Romney vote as it will be an anti-Obama vote and the RATS all know this. Hence the panic and the strategy of diversion. I hate to see this happening here on Free Republic but I've seen it nowhere more prevalent than here. Time to remember my tagline....