Skip to comments.3 Must-See Charts For Anyone Who Thinks We're Going Into A Recession
Posted on 07/03/2012 1:02:17 PM PDT by blam
3 Must-See Charts For Anyone Who Thinks We're Going Into A Recession
Jul. 3, 2012, 3:25 PM
Our friend Matt Busigin, who writes the blog Macrofugue, has sent us 3 brilliant charts that give some much-needed context to the recent economic data.
What they do is look at the average progression of various datapoints in the 12 before a recession (black line) and compare that to the progression of that same datapoint right now (blue line).
So for example, here's the average progression of YOY growth in auto sales in (black line) vs. the YOY growth in auto sales over the last 12 months.
As you can see, the trend is nothing recessionary at all.
Here's another one showing ISM employment. Again, same idea. The average pre-recession trend is in black and the current trend is in blue.
The trend is again much better.
And finally, here's retail sales growth. The YOY change just doesn't look at all like past recessions.
Good news for everyone. Bad news for all the gloomers who predict an imminent downturn.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Those charts are nonsense. Auto sales were manipulated by two things: first, the federal government has gone on buying sprees to replace all government cars and trucks pushing the buys to Government Motors. Second, the cars and trucks are considered sold when they are shipped to the dealers .... drive by some of the Government Motors dealers and look at the inventory. The same cutesy tricks are used the other statistics and charts.
When I do that, #9 on the list is “obama is a cactus”. It must be because Google knows I’m in Arizona.
If newly printed money wasn’t being borrowed and spent by the Treasury, the GDP numbers would be negative.
The problem with using the GDP to measure the economy is that it treats government deficit spending as growth.
I mean, let's pick three indicators and extrapolate from that to the entire economy. I can't say we're headed back into recession [official recession, that is,] but if I produce a chart that shows, say, onion sales are down, will "Business Insider" reconsider?
Get underneath the charts.
Auto sales are up 15% over the past twelve months
1. I’m so screwed because my house is so far underwater, I can’t move up for many years, so I’d best buy a new car.
2. Gas prices are thru the roof, and I need to buy a new more efficient vehicle.
3. Last year I didn’t know whether GM or Chrysler were going to make it, so I held off a buying decision.
4. I had no idea whether my company was going to have another round of massive layoffs, and I sure didn’t want to take on debt if I got hit.
5. My 401K was totally decimated, so I had no idea how I could retire. Now that my portfolio has recovered, I feel more comfortable.
6. A few years ago, my ride had a bit of life left in her, so I didn’t go for the “cash for clunkers” deal as I didn’t know if my job was safe. Today I feel more positive,
Retail sales overall are trending down from a 5 to a 4 rating. I would expect that the overall retail sales include the large impact of auto sales which look quite positive on the prior chart, which then leads to the conclusion that except for automotive, the rest of retail sectors must really suck, especially household furnishings and appliances.
Lets look at chart 1 They chart year over year PERCENT, presumably of sales increase. Whoop-de-freakin-doo! Heading into a recession one would expect the % of sales to be down over the prior year. Now consider the blue line, also % increase over the prior year, and it is trending upward. So what? They are not consecutive years, and the year before is not shown. It is not that difficult to show an upward trend when it is a % increase from under the basement where Bush and Obama placed us.
Chart 2 ISM manufacturing employment index. Consider the left side scale of this chart. Notice that they dont tell us what it is, they only provide numbers. Ever perform graphing using Excel? If one shrinks the scale and zooms in, two lines that were very close when the scale was reasonable become far apart - presto! We have recovery.
Chart 3 a deceptive amalgam of both charts 2 and 1! They dont tell you what the scale is, and they also pull the same year to year stunt with no basis to truly compare the lines. But do notice that they are both trending down
This appears to be a case of using charts to lie to the public. What a shocker.
A more complete vetting of information could nullify what I wrote. But if the full data supports a recovery why is so much information missing?
Significant cherry picking and data manipulation from where I sit. Since 2008 the universe of data has dramatically changed in order to support a a couple of “summers of recovery”. Without a nefarious rending of data, we have never left the recession. We may have neared the first bottom of a double dipper, but we haven’t seen the real bottom. In order to have a double dip you have to have a little bounce in the middle. Am I missing something or does this look lots like glowbull warming hockey sticks?
"Business Insider" is cited often on FR -- usually by the same few. I find it a very unconvincing website and wonder if we're not witness to some blog-pimping. Why anyone would pimp this site on FR eludes me. It's completely and conventionally Keynesian and, therefore, liberal.
They pushed a ton of cars down the pipeline. They are sitting on the dealers’ books (and their lots.). In April I bought a new Chevy truck. The dealer had 200 trucks on his lot. I know this dealer. He got a great deal to take a lot of his summer quota early. But he also knows you cannot push on a string.
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