Do Democrats Have a Shot at the House?
"Nancy, all you have to do is strike yourself three times in the head, and say 'There's no place like home'"
Posted on 06/23/2012 7:04:05 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
So far this election season we have written very little about the race for the House of Representatives. In part this is because this looks to be less dramatic than the presidential race — where Barack Obama has only a slight edge, in my view — or the race for the Senate, which looks increasingly like a tossup.
In the House, by contrast, Republicans are reasonably clear favorites to maintain their majority.
Still, the House is probably more difficult to analyze than the battle for the Senate or the presidential race. Democrats, in my view, do retain something of an upside case that revolves around the possibility that anti-incumbent sentiment could manifest itself in a large amount of Congressional turnover.
In short, the signs so far are that Republican incumbents are holding up well enough in the House, and that there is not much of a wave breaking in either direction. But, it is quite early, and I do not think we have a keen sense yet of how anti-Congressional sentiment might translate into individual races. Betting markets give Democrats about 4-to-1 odds against re-claiming the House. This is not completely out of line, but I might take Democrats’ side of the bet just on the general principle of long uncertainty early in a political cycle.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
The answer is no!
Who is this guy Silver? He is clearly whistling past the Graveyard.
Even with a Romney/Rino ticket and a McCain like performance, Tea-vangelicals have learned the lesson. They will not stay home this time. They will also NOT vote FOR Romney, but they will vote down ballot.’
I expect the house and senate to go GOP.
He must be channeling with Pelosi!
Minority status for a while. Real Americans have had enough of union goons, Nancys wac a doodle antics and Oh yea Obama. Who ever, what ever He is.
The new media will give the next rat a full examination.
Another NYT Marxist fantasizing about a Democrat sweep in Nov. If Obama wins, this country will plunge into a full-blown depression before his re-immaculation in January. Businesses will close, and the real unemployment rate will be impossible for the Obamabots to hide.
Save every penny you can now. You may be happy you did.
The Republicans will probably have all 3. However, the Senate will be close and the Democrats will filibuster everything so nothing will get done as always. They will say it is payback for Republicans doing it for the last four years. It is an endless cycle and the only ones hurt are the voters.
that is my plan! to many important down ticket races to sit it out simply because I do not support Romney.
The NY Slimes is hopeing and praying (to what I don’t know) again. The Dems have about the same chance of retaking the house as the NY Slimes has selling papers again.
He's a nerdy-looking statistician with a degree in Economics from U of Chicago.
He developed a statistical model for managing the careers of baseball players. It's called PECOTA.
More recently, his "models" correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 Presidential election. This made him a media darling, and (I suspect) has gotten him a lot of social action of a type he once only obtained while holding a magazine one-handed.
IpFirst laugh of the day!
Nope.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Plus he correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 election? Umm..who didn't?
Somehow predicting the 2008 Presidential outcome does not impress me. I had a feeling it would be the 0 sometime before it happened. How did he do in the 2010 prediction derby? If he predicted a flip of the house and a retention of the senate by the dims I would give him more credence.
I guess it will be time to do the slimy reid and make everything 51 votes
ME!!!!. I could not believe that that this country would vote for barry. I was not a believer until Indiana came in
They just get sillier and sillier
Yes; like the folks who think another Obama term will be just fine if it means Romney loses.
If you will shoot at the trees because you hate your unit leader more than you hate the onrushing enemy, you have not learned "the lesson" from 2008. Obama appreciates the half vote that you will grant him by "NOT" voting for Romney. And many of your shipmates will suffer with you as a consequence of your principled gesture. I had hoped our guys were too smart to read those enemy pamphlets...
Nor me.
But I don't really think it's people like you and me that he's looking to impress.
Silver’s blog is totally flawed because of his faulty generic ballot premise. His assumption that the Country is currently 50-50 is bogus if you trust Scott Rasmussen’s accuracy. Rasmussen has the GOP +7 this week. If the spread is anywhere close to 7% this November, Silver will be double-dosing the Prozac election night.
He is the favorite election forecaster of the Left. I've read most of what he writes, so let me interepret the first paragraph of the article for you.
So far this election season we have written very little about the race for the House of Representatives. In part this is because this looks to be less dramatic than the presidential race — where Barack Obama has only a slight edge, in my view
Meaning, "Obama is in serious trouble"
— or the race for the Senate, which looks increasingly like a tossup.
Meaning, "The GOP is likely to take control"
In the House, by contrast, Republicans are reasonably clear favorites to maintain their majority.
Meaning, "The Democrats don't have a snowball's chance in Hell of retaking the House."
That should help. :)
The GOP will have the White House and both branches of Congress. Get used to it, Slimes.
That’s the good news. The bad news is, I know that Romney, Senate Majority Leader McConnell and Speaker Boehner will waste the opportunity. Obama-Reed-Pelosi took advantage to pass everything they wanted. I have no faith that Romney-McConnell-Boehner will do more than just repeal Obamacare (which is a good start).
But they need to disband TSA, decomissiong Homeland Security, open up drilling, allow buying insurance across state lines, hamstring EPA, HHS, Education and Energy. Commission a real study that puts a wood stake in the AGW theory once and for all. Authorize Keystone Pipeline and circumvent EPA to do it. Massively scale back business regulations.
I correctly predicted the 2008 election outcome back in 2006, when the GOP got slaughtered in the mid terms.
I think Nate Silver is the son of a famous actor from the 1950s, Hiyo Silver.
It’s a pubbie year!! Notice how many democRATS are refusing to go to Bam’s coronation....the rats are jumping off a sinking ship. The people have had it and the sooner Bam is dumped off the dole the better.
“ME!!!!. I could not believe that that this country would vote for barry. I was not a believer until Indiana came in”
Me too. My opinion of America changed permanently that day.
It would be different if I thought Americans had been hoodwinked. But this man’s “record” was there for all interested to see. Based on his sparse voting record alone, along with his recorded rhetoric and personal history, he shouldn’t have been able to be elected to ANYTHING.
I still can’t believe it.
If you remain ignorant of the fact that your CO is sending you on suicide missions because he has sold out to the enemy you will lose the entire WAR.
Whether we like it or not, Romney won the GOP nomination - and neither of our preferred candidates did. Now the choice is between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. And no matter which of the four options you decide to take in November, you will be giving at least part of your vote to one of them.
Not at all true.
A lie.
Not voting for Romney is no more voting for Obama, than NOT voting for Obama is voting FOR Romney.
Watch. Some 30 million of us will NOT vote FOR either EVIL.
You do what you do, but as for me and my house, no more compromise, no more lessor evils, no more lies, no more betrayals. If any candidate doesn’t represent truth, to hell with them.
We will pick up seats.
But it was simply a reaction to Bush and McCain's refusal to actually run like he wanted to be President.
One of those two men will be elected.
No unless the question refers to whether they can be the janitors of the House. The Rasmussen generic is 45/38 which indicates at least a 20 seat Democrat loss. It would mean a 60 seat loss except that we just had that and there are only just so many possible pickups. We won’t take Plastic Face’s seat but lots of Democrats are in big danger. Silver is a schmuck.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.