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The Coming Oil Crash (Good News! Gas Prices Could go Down to $2 a Gallon by Autumn)
Foreign Policy ^ | JUNE 19, 2012 | Steve Levine

Posted on 06/20/2012 9:19:43 AM PDT by nickcarraway

My mom out in California is elated -- gasoline prices in her neighborhood are below $4 a gallon for the first time in four months. Less so are the world's petro-rulers, who are watching the price of oil -- their life blood -- plunge at a rate they have not experienced since the dreaded year 2008. Industry analysts are using phrases such as "devastation" and "severe strain" to describe what is next for the petro-states should prices plummet as low as some fear. No one is as yet forecasting a fresh round of Arab Spring-like regime implosions. But that's the nightmare scenario if you happen to run a petrocracy.

To understand why your average oil king is right to be worried at the moment, grab your calculator. The price of U.S.-traded oil fell to $83.27 a barrel on Monday, and global benchmark Brent crude to $96.05 a barrel; now juxtapose that against the state budgets of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, which require more than $110-a-barrel Brent prices to break even, according to generally accepted estimates, and you'll see the problem.

Given this already-existing revenue gap, one might fairly wonder what would happen if, as Citigroup's Edward Morse says is possible, prices drop another $20 a barrel for an extended length of time. Oil economist Philip Verleger's forecast is even gloomier -- a plunge to $40 a barrel by November. Or finally, what Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez fears -- $35-a-barrel prices, near the lows last seen in 2008. In Russia, for instance, "$35 or $40, or even $60 a barrel, would be devastating fiscally," says Andrew Kuchins of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That could damage the standing of President Vladimir Putin, since his "popularity and authority are closely correlated with economic growth," Kuchins told me in an

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012; 7dollargas7nov2012; bhofascism; bhofraud; bhogasprices; bushsfault; dictators; elections; gas; gasprices; howtostealanelection; manipulation; nobama2012; oil; oilspeculation
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To: nickcarraway

I would be happy to pay over $10 a gallon, if that would help get that piece of corrupt filth out of our White House.

Oh course, at that price I would quit mowing my lawns. ;>)


51 posted on 06/20/2012 12:29:57 PM PDT by Gator113 (***YOU GAVE it to Obama. I would have voted for NEWT.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: AngelesCrestHighway
Yeah!...Obama said it was all about tire pressure!

Works for me! I keep my tires at 75 psi and I'm saving gas!

Those are my bike tires, so I'm saving gas by not driving my car...

52 posted on 06/20/2012 1:08:20 PM PDT by Disambiguator
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To: nickcarraway

Perhaps the declining oil price is a Saudi move against Iran. Arabia makes money at $60 a barrel. Iran goes broke at $60. The tactic was used against the USSR and it had a powerful effect. The Saudis went along with Reagan and boosted the supply of oil to make the price crash and stick the screws to the Soviets, which it did. The Sovs had run out of all the treasure they stole from Eastern Europe post WWII and the war booty they got from Germany and were living on their oil. The Saudis remember.


53 posted on 06/20/2012 4:53:52 PM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson)
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To: nickcarraway

the one drawback to having a lasting declìning price of oil right now is that people will feel like Good Times Are Here Again! and vote for the kenyan because he Finally Made It Happen.”


54 posted on 06/20/2012 4:56:02 PM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson)
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To: ryan71

Keep in mind that the oil industry, right here in the US is the source for millions of jobs. It is the economic engine keeping parts of the private sector going. Obama has been trying to shut it down since he got into office, and $40 oil will do it (drilling/extraction cost break-even is between $60 and $80). The lowest unemployment in the US is in states which rely on oil—and people have been moving there from everywhere else. Otherwise, there are government jobs.


55 posted on 06/20/2012 9:19:45 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: Sequoyah101
Look at 1999, too, when the EIA announced that there was going to be a worldwide glut of oil (Without taking into account Asian demand). The price crash put the oil patch out of work for a year.

It's an election year, and everyone in an elected office is going to push for lower prices any way they can.

56 posted on 06/20/2012 9:28:49 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: arthurus

This happens and it certainly won’t be good for the Texas economy.

Prices in CA seem to be dropping steadily.


57 posted on 06/20/2012 9:36:52 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: ridesthemiles

The Saudis are pumping into these soft prices and an obvious global slowdown. Why?


58 posted on 06/22/2012 1:42:05 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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