Posted on 06/13/2012 9:35:05 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Earlier today, National Journal's Josh Kraushaar warned that Mitt Romney was poised to breach the Blue Wall --- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. A new Rasmussen poll of likely voters in Wisconsin corroborates Kraushaar's analysis. Mitt Romney has moved to a narrow lead over Barack Obama in the immediate aftermath of the recall election, 47/44:
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Romney with 47% of the vote to Obama’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Prior to this survey, Obama's support in the state has ranged from 45% to 52%, while Romney has earned 41% to 45%. Last month, the numbers were Obama 49%, Romney 45%. The president led his likely Republican challenger by 11 points in March - 52% to 41%.
Just last week Republican Governor Scott Walker won a special recall election prompted by Democrats outraged over his successful move to limit collective bargaining rights for some unionized public employees in order to reduce Wisconsin’s budget deficit.
Wisconsin hasn’t gone Republican since the 1984 Ronald Reagan landslide over Walter Mondale. It came close two of the past three cycles, however, with George Bush only losing the state by a few thousand votes in each of his two elections. However, Obama won Wisconsin handily in 2008, 56/43, so a 3-point deficit with less than five months to go sends a big red flag flying, perhaps over the entire Midwest and Rust Belt.
Obama is hampered in Wisconsin by a 47/52 approval rating — slightly worse than the national numbers we see from Gallup, but not extraordinarily worse. Men have a much stronger disapproval at 37/59, while women give him a narrower positive rating at 53/46 — but 39% strongly disapprove, as do 50% of men. Independents disapprove by a significant margin at 41/56.
These numbers get reflected in the head-to-head matchups as well. Romney has a 15-point lead among men, while Obama has an eight-point lead with women, giving Romney the edge in the gender gap. Independents give Romney a 5-point edge at 43/38, but 38% is a very low number for an incumbent President in a heretofore friendly state.
That’s not the only demographic problem Obama has. He only carries the under-40 vote by just four points, 44/40, while Romney gets 51% of the other two age demographics in Wisconsin. Romney leads by 16 points among voters with children still at home, 49/33, and only trails by four (45/49) among those who don’t. Obama only leads in two of six income categories — under $20K (65/33), and $40K-60K (49/41). The $20K-40K demo is a virtual tie, with Romney taking a one-point edge (45/44), and Romney wins all the other income demos by double digits. In fact, Obama can’t get to 40% in any of the remaining income brackets.
Some might wonder whether Rasmussen oversampled Republicans to get this result. The D/R/I on this poll is 34/32/34, while the turnout in last week’s recall election was 34/35/31. If anything, the poll slightly undersamples Republicans, although this turnout model is a reasonable one to use for the November election.
Looks like the Wisconsin recall is turning out to be a huge backfire on the unions, Democrats, and Barack Obama. It may also hint at a Blue Wall collapse in five months.
Obama is toast.
These swing state polls are a good sign 5 months out. Romney expanding the field Zero must spend money on and campaign in. High GOP and Independent voter turnout is crucial, although high GOP turnout pretty much assured nationwide I suspect...
This poll will register a 9.0 earthquake within the commie party. Look for Hillary to make her move in the next 2 weeks. It’s over for Obama....EPIC FAIL.
LOL, I’d love to be a fly on the wall in the Oval Office. First Romney is ahead in MI, then 20% of black voters jump ship in NC, and now this. Barack Hussain Obama, Mmmm Mmmm Mmmmm!
As I don't recognize FR anymore, I'm not sure what's up or down these days...
What... You mean the people here who swore Romney “couldn’t be elected” were totally delusional and lost in another reality?
Who knew... ;-)
I’m no Romney fan but ABO.
“LOL, I’d love to be a fly on the wall in the Oval Office. First Romney is ahead in MI, then 20% of black voters jump ship in NC, and now this. Barack Hussain Obama, Mmmm Mmmm Mmmmm!”
And let’s not forget the “undervote” for FUBO in Sacramento, County, CA last week. The citizens have pitched a votebomb in the Obama Outhouse and it’s raining $hit and boards!! Buy more popcorn, this isn’t even going to be close at the end of the day.
Amen to that. Apparently our numbers here on FR are dwindling these days... amazing, isn't it?
While these recent developments are encouraging, please... never assume that.
Since JimRob’s truce, it’s ok. He still despises Romney as much as ever, but he’s not banning folks for supporting Mitt... Or what’s more prevalent... Going against Obama
I hope you are right. I still worry. But not as much as I was a couple months ago.
The Obama Titanic is listing with all RATs on deck. May they go down to Hades together.
Hiliary will replace Biden as the VP candidate
Hiliary will replace Biden as the VP candidate
I think we're safe. I don't "support" Romney. I support Romney. It's time conservatives for Romney take a stand. Full speed ahead. Damn the torpedoes.
I plead guilty, I saw no way that Romney could win, it sounds like trying to stop a flood by adding water to run such a Rino against a real left wing nutcase but there is apparently no way to figure American politics anymore. The polls seem to indicate that people are so sick of Obama that Mickey Mouse could be elected. I give up.
If Obama is toast in the election battle then what happens next? That is the real question now.
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