Obama will win, he can relax, says expert US forecaster

Yahoo ^ | 5/23/12

[Libloather]

Obama will win, he can relax, says expert US forecaster
www.telegraphindia.com – Wed 23 May, 2012

Allan Lichtman introduces "the world's only do-it-yourself prediction" to a select audience in Calcutta.

The prediction model ' based on 13 keys ' forecasts the reelection of Barack Obama in the US presidential election to be held on November 6. To convince the audience, Lichtman took them through all the 13 keys asking them to ascertain if they were true or false. The audience judged 11 out of the 13 keys to be true, a sure shot that Obama would be reelected as six or more keys have to be false for the incumbent President to lose the elections.

Rudrangshu Mukherjee, editor, editorial pages of The Telegraph, moderated the session organised by the American Centre in association with Aspen Institute India.

Question: What is common between Ronald Regan, George HW Bush, William J Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama other than they all have been occupants of the White House?

Answer: Allan Lichtman, a US professor of history, has successfully predicted their victory in the Presidential elections since 1984.

[Libloather]

Don't forget - experts are never wrong.

And then there's this - In Memoriam: The Old Obama, Who Wanted to Bring People Together
"Even as we speak," he said, "there are those who are preparing to divide us -- the spin masters, the negative ad peddlers, who embrace the politics of anything goes." On May 21, 2012, more than three years after he was sworn into office, Obama confessed at a press conference in his hometown, Chicago, that he had become one of those peddlers.

[BenLurkin]

How could he relax more than he does already? The guy is on permanent vacation!

[Doogle]

Allan Lichtman introduces "the world's only do-it-yourself prediction" to a select audience in Calcutta.

select audience in Calcutta....????...four mules, 11 beggars, and some guy with a rubber snake mating with an inner tube.

[GR_Jr.]

He is right, Obama is a shoo in. Nit becuase he’s done a good job or anything. Obama represents the values of most of the people in this country. this is no longer Reagan;s America. This is a Godless nation where the people support abortion, same sex marriages, Atheism, sex changes, promiscuity and many other leftist agendas. This nation has abandoned God and God has in turn abandoned us. This nation has a new God it bows to and his name is Barack 0bama.

We got what we deserved and will continue to get what we deserve when Obama wins in a walk.

[Parmenio]

And these experts were an audience in Calcutta, who awarded Obama 11 of the 13 keys for victory in the election. We better give up, the election’s already decided.

[Uncle Ike]

” Don’t forget - experts are never wrong. “

I predict that he will, sometime around the first week in November of this year, utter the word “UNEXPECTED”...

[RoseofTexas]

AHHHHH sure, ok! LOL!

[apillar]

And if he is wrong, and Obama loses, it's not his fault! It just means everybody was RACIST!!!!! /sarcasm off

[EDINVA]

I have become a self-appointed expert, too. I predicted each of those presidential victories. I am so special!

[Hogblog]

If he would include the 1980 election I’ll bet he chose Carter......well, zero is Carter....he won’t win....regardless of what Slumdog electioneer says....

[Sooth2222]

"Sample some of the key questions: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign, real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms, there is no sustained social unrest during the term, the incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs etc"

Yes, I think you'd need to travel to India (or some alternative universe) to find an audience that would believe those statements are true. Is he on drugs?

[Psalm 144]

I think it will be a low turnout election for both of the major parties and that the electoral votes will be close. We could have had a sweep, and should have.

[napscoordinator]

I think it will be a low turnout election for both of the major parties and that the electoral votes will be close. We could have had a sweep, and should have.

It should be a sweep but it won’t be because we picked a liberal for the Republican candidate so regardless of who wins not much will change. The Republicans were extremely stupid this round because it should have been an easy win and now it won’t be.

[ilgipper]

There is no election on the local, state or national level since 2009 that indicates the nation thinks like Obama and the far left. Their ideas have been repeatedly rejected and the left moving democrat party is darn near extinction in most states.

[Da Bilge Troll]

Allan Lichtman is an obese opera singer?

[BookmanTheJanitor]

From wikipedia: On September 28, 2005, Lichtman formally announced his candidacy for the United States Senate from Maryland. He ran as a progressive

nope...doesn't appear to be biased at all....(snicker)

[luvbach1]

Did those of us who voted against 0bummer in 2008 get what we deserved, and will those of us who vote against him in 2012 deserve what we continue to get?

[Kellis91789]

There are only four “key” questions given in the article, not all 13. Yet Obama is a clear failure on at least three out of four of these, with a chance that the even the single positive “not being in a recession during the election season” could fade between now and the election. GDP growth is now under 2% and still falling. With Europe troubles, it could dip negative by Oct.

[LS]

I’m with you. NOBODY “deserves” Obama. It’s like saying someone “deserves” cancer. BS.

[television is just wrong]

we should all have a job like that

[FES0844]

Sadly, I think you are right.

[citizen]

Licthman is a pseudo-intellectual liberal/progressive talking head that probably has a liberal/progressive book he is promoting. What better time to market his drivel than during the run-up to the November elections?

[WashingtonSource]

They drag out these people every four years to make propaganda points. And if these people won’t do, they’ll find some others who will. Always the same story. They could just go to the archives, dig up the stories, change the names and print it word for word and we’d never know the difference. It’s a standard propaganda template, doncha know.

[Iron Munro]

If you think there was a panic run on guns and ammunition in November and December of
2008 imagine what it will be like if this prediction comes to pass this November.

[AlexW]

“Licthman is a pseudo-intellectual liberal/progressive “
_____________________________________

Call them what they are...Marxist/Leninist/Communist

[Reagan233]

I’d like to become an “expert” too. It sounds like such an easy job.

Most liberal jobs consist of BSing stuff, like jobs in mass media.

Conservative jobs actually involve building things(engineering) or creating wealth(business).

[ScottinVA]

I tend to agree with you... this country is far, far different than the America of the Reagan era. It elected Obama once and unfortunately will do so again. If he had a viable opponent, things might be different, but... they aren`t.

[Gator113]

I hope he’s wrong, but the guy could be right.

I have long said that the very moment that Romney becomes the nominee, Obama wins another 4 years.

“Freedom is a fragile thing and is never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. Those who have known freedom and then lost it have never known it again.” ~ Ronald Reagan, from his first inaugural speech as governor of California, January 5, 1967

Ronald Reagan’s warning about losing our freedoms echoes down through a generation of lost momentum and squandered opportunity.

We now have the most ignorant electorate in the history of American elections. I believe we have the most corrupt government and media our country has ever seen.

There are tens of millions of Americans that no longer believe in or desire freedom.

There are tens of millions of Americans that believe that the government should take your money..... and give it to them.

There are tens of millions of Americans that have no idea what it means to be an American.

Americans will get the country it apparently wants, the country it is willing to work for...... and a country it so richly deserves.

But hey, maybe we will get lucky.

[Michael Barnes]

Does not matter if he wins or lose; the problem we have is his ideology is alive and well in this country.

[The Antiyuppie]

“We got what we deserved and will continue to get what we deserve when Obama wins in a walk.”

This negativism is not helping at all.

If you don't get out and vote for ABO, preferably someone with a chance to WIN, you are part of the problem and a victim of yourself.

Let's hope your prophecies aren't self-fulfilling.

[bicyclerepair]

It’s not the votes that count, it’s who counts the votes.

[beebuster2000]

You obviously didn’t read the article.

took place in Calcutta, Arkansas. just over the line from Toad Suck Ferry, Ark.

http://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/encyclopedia/media-detail.aspx?mediaID=7266

[GR_Jr.]

“Did those of us who voted against 0bummer in 2008 get what we deserved, and will those of us who vote against him in 2012 deserve what we continue to get?”

No, but we are the minority and we have suffer because of the majority

[Doogle]

[Fraxinus]

The media will be pushing polls that say things will be close through mid Oct. I think it is likely that then things will break very hard one way or another. I think in Romney’s direction is the most likely, but anything is possible, even the improbable (Ron Paul engineers a convention upset?). Depending on how epic the vote fraud is, we could see either a tight electoral college or a wipeout (NJ goes R?).

[Zakeet]

Here are Lichtman's 13 Keys, along with my personal assessment for whatever it's worth:

The Keys are statements that favor the re election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

   False: The Rats lost their a$$ in the midterms, and have lost a number of special elections since.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

   False: Although nobody is running against the Bumbler, attendance his campaign rallies have dropped off significantly even with bussed in paid crowds, and he has lost over 40 percent of the vote to "none of the above" and a convicted felon sitting in a Federal pen.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

   True: Score one for the Wee Wee.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

   True: Score another one for the Wee Wee.

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

   False: The economy has tanked throughout his term and shows no sign of improvement now, even with cooked up statistics.

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

   False: As mentioned above, the economy is a disaster and is getting worse.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

   False: The Idiot did get ObamaCare through Congress, and he has made policy statements such as support of Gay Marriage, but they are not the kind of things that win votes. Other than that, the Moron can't even get Congress to pass a budget - even when he had a majority in both chambers.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

   Sort of True: Other than Occupy Wall Street, rampant Black on White violence, rampant illegal immigration, and disastrous unemployment, peace reigns supreme.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

   False: Fast and Furious among many others. Not as bad as the Clinton's, but who is?

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

    Sort of True: Lost most of the Arab world to radicals, bumbling in Afghanistan, bows and scrapes to the Saudi King and the Japanese Emperor, but who cares.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

    True: Single-handedly killed Osama ... and would have done it sooner had those darn SEALS had not got in the way.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

    False: Outside of Hollyweird and the Beltway, he has about as much appeal as a dirty diaper ... for pretty much the same reason. Fellow Rat politicians don't want to be caught dead with his campaign support. And that dog of a wife who makes a constant spectacle of herself by wearing expensive designer duds (made out of upholstery fabric), flaunting herself on junkets, preaching against junk food, and acting like an idiot on TV yak shows further diminishes his likability quotent.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

    True: Mutt is about as exciting as a tree stump

By my tally, applying the professor's test, the Head Moron loses ... even with several breaks in his favor.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Libloather, sidebar:

Prediction: Romney Crushes Obama In Presidential Election Blowout
http://www.forbes.com | 5/22/2012 | Bill Frezza
Posted on 05/24/2012 12:11:48 PM PDT by BO Stinkss
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2887607/posts

[galloway15]

LOL, you think it will be a low turnout election?

Gallup has 87% of Republicans backing Romney already and he hasn’t even begun to campaign, his fund raising rivals Obama’s, none of the slime thrown at Romney sticks and in fact it backfires and enthusiasm among Rep is at record levels.

Surely you aren’t basing your low turnout projection on claims of a few people here on FR who essentially say they are taking their football and going home because their candidate lost in the primary?

If not then what are you basing it on?

[justiceseeker93]

Allan Lichtman sounds like more of an astrologer than a serious political scientist. He's not even in the same class as Larry Sabato.

Does he do his thing in Calcutta, India because he's a world-wide celebrity? No, he probably goes there simply because he can't get a gig in the United States, not even on lefty outlets like CNN or MSNBC.

[stephenjohnbanker]

They always trot out this creep every 4 years. A commie no more or less.

[LottieDah]

Time to wake the dead so they can vote for Obama.

[Psalm 144]

LOL, yes LOL.

Because LOL this is more like 2006 and 2008 than 2010 LOL.

So, LOL, I think you run a republican candidate to the left of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton you get a low turnout LOL.

[4Liberty]

He HAS been relaxing, when did he stop?

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[galloway15]

Because LOL this is more like 2006 and 2008 than 2010 LOL.

Not even close

So, LOL, I think you run a republican candidate to the left of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton you get a low turnout LOL. Put down the bong, pal. you're just another bitter Romney hater and it has badly affected your judgement (LOL).

[Psalm 144]

“you’re just another bitter Romney hater”

“Just another’. Indeed, there is a trend there. Lets just say I wish him, his and his supporters as much joy and success as he wished for the ‘gentile’ unborn in Massachusetts.

“and it has badly affected your judgement”

On the contrary this election cycle has clarified my judgement. The GOP is not my party, and I am done wasting money, time, effort and support on it. It is good to know one’s enemies, and the Punch & Judy uni-party in Washington is mine.

[Psalm 144]

“Put down the bong, pal.”

Get off your knees, lackey.

[sport]

Get off your knees, lackey.

Yeah, Chris Matthews is going to be jealouse as hell. He considers that part of obamas personal property. And is trying to wear it out.

[Lazamataz]

I'm all for this guy's prediction.

Obama, you are such a cinch for the 2012 election, I wouldn't even bother campaigning. Remember, there's a golf swing to improve!

[tanknetter]

Licthman is a pseudo-intellectual liberal/progressive talking head that probably has a liberal/progressive book he is promoting.

What Lichtman has been promoting is his "13 Keys" theory, and he's been doing it every cycle for the last 20 years or so.

The problem with them is that they are largely subjective in nature. So he gets to choose the underlying opinions/trends that matter in applying to them. In cases where he's been wrong, or is trending wrong going into the last days of an election, he starts flipping keys so that his theory still "fits". Sort of like how, with polling, the polls need to "move" to what the actual results will be on election day as polling firms need to demonstrate that they are "accurate" in order to retain or obtain clients.