Skip to comments.Mitt Romney’s road to presidency this fall looks narrow on electoral map
Posted on 04/30/2012 9:13:27 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Bushs two successful races, and the map on which he built them, are quite instructive when trying to understand Romneys narrow margin for error this fall.
In 2000, Bush won 271 electoral votes one more than he needed to claim the presidency. In eking out that victory, Bush not only carried the South and Plains states with a near sweep but also claimed wins in swing states such as Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and the major electoral-vote prizes of Ohio and Florida.
If Romney was able to duplicate Bushs 2000 map, he would take 285 electoral votes thanks to redistricting gains over the past decade.
But to do so, Romney would need not only to win the five swing states mentioned above with the exception of Missouri, all of them are considered tossups (at worst) for the president at the moment but also hang on to states such as North Carolina and Virginia where Bush cruised 12 years ago. (Obama carried both states in
Now, the good(ish) news for Romney is that if he has a low ceiling, he also has a relatively high floor.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 173 electoral votes in 2008. If Romney carried those same 22 states under the 2012 map, he would win 180 electoral votes.
Add Indiana, which McCain lost but which will almost certainly go for Romney in 2012, and the former Massachusetts governors electoral floor sits at 191.
Given the narrowness of his electoral map window, the key for Romney this fall is to win in places that Bush, McCain and other Republican nominees over the past two decades have struggled to make inroads. No Republican has carried Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Wisconsin (10) in any of the past five elections, for example.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
I’m a realist, too.. My stomach is having a hard time with acceptance phase of our choices..but there it is.
The Senate races are so important this year..
I’d crawl over glass to vote to evict Obama.
No way. You don’t win by losing, you win by winning. If Romney lost (he is going to win thankfully), you could expect the next nominee to be Chris Christie, who is far more to the left. Neither party goes more to its flank when it loses, that is just wacky.
Do this people seriously think there is a single state that Bush won in either election that Obama will win in 2012?
Romney’s floor is about 229 electoral votes. I guess he could lose Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. The Post is dreaming and trying to forget their nightmare of November 2010 if they think Obama will win North Carolina or Virginia this time around.
I suspect Romney wins every state Bush won either race. That is 296 EVs. Then I suspect he adds Wisconsin which was very close both Bush races and did not have voter ID like they do now. That would get him to 306. He well could win Pennsylvania that was as close as Oho in 2004. He could also win New Jersey, Michigan both of whom have elected GOP governors and Minnesota that regularly has elected Republicans to statewide office though the most recent Senate race was stolen. That would get him to 366.
Whether he could add to 366 by picking up any New England EVs not from New Hampshire or any West Coast EVs is not clear, but also not beyond the realm of possibility. Still I would think 366 might would be a good working ceiling for Romney. Obama on the other hand has in my view very few paths to victory.
I honestly hate Romney, but I’m just the guy to put a leash on him if he gets crazy
I think many are weak minded and are listening to the media. I hope people wake up unite and kick the bastard out on his backside. The alternative is not pretty.
Lord..I hope so!
Keep the pressure on.
And I could care less about Romney’s chances - he’s null and void to me. He’ll have to get his votes from those he deceived - they supported him now they own the bishop of a cult, he is theirs.
The polls showed Carter with a landslide at this point.
Polls this far out are worth spit. The conventions have not even occured yet. What does matter is POTUS approval rating and economic perceptions.
Good, loser Sink what’s left. Romney is not the die hard marxist such as Zer0.
Write in Newt. Sore loser!
Well everyone had a chance to vote for Newt. The GOP didn’t give us NEWT! So this nonsense about the GOP giving us mitt - NO ONE had to support him.
Wonderful sentiment. Of course reality is a lot different. NC maybe there is some polling evidence that as last time it will be close. VA is a whole other story. Northern VA has all the people. Polling shows VA might be lost for sometime. The union issues are big in n va.
Yeah, FR is going Zer0! It’s become more liberal. These so-called Freepers would rather vote for someone !00% adverse to their beliefs than the alternate who might give 70% of what they want.
This is exactly what Zer0’s people are doing. I’m surprised how well it’s working.
You are mistaken, there is no more we. You/others gave that up when you didn't support the We The People candidate. What you are left with is a pipe dream - thinking somehow you matter now. You were only needed to put him in power.
As far as Soros related...you be the judge.
She has done more than the whole GOP - she doesn’t have to do another thing. All she did and all her speeches and conservatives are supporting Romney?
They were not listening to her but wanted her to do it all. Sarah is a WeThePeople person - means WeThePeople vote for WeThePeople candidates. She said if someone enters the race and she feels they would do the job she wouldn’t enter it. Newt entered the race, The Palin’s voted for him and told us and how many listened? So don’t say for Sarah to get off on pot - she was never on it. Those on pot, supported Mitt - there is no helping them.
The nation is finished with four more years of Obama. I don’t care about myself. I’ve had a fairly long, good, blessed life. My children and theirs, Lord willing they have children, will live the entirety of their lives in a nation robbed of most its liberties by Obama executive orders and federal court and Supreme Court appointees. They will live in a land where vigilante mobs can do as they please as long as they are on the side of the regime. They will live in a land with a weakened military and national security, making the land vulnerable to attack. Anyone who has a heart for at least one young person in this world must do whatever he/she can to run this communist thug out of office, even if Mr. Romney is not our ideal.
What are you smoking? Maine isn’t going to go Romney and neither will New Hampshire.
Romney’s also only up 5 in TX and is getting blown out in Colorado.
It’s possible given his piss-poor campaign that we’ll see a Mondale-style landslide against him.
Yeah, he’ll add SC and GA this time around. Might sweep the south.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.