Fed Upgrades Economic Outlook [Unemployment To Fall To 7.8% 4th Quarter?-Wow!]

LATimes ^ | Don Lee,

[Steelfish]

Fed Upgrades Economic Outlook At the end of their two-day meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers said unemployment could fall to 7.8% in the fourth quarter. They project slightly faster economic growth this year, including improvement in housing.

Federal Reserve policymakers offered a more upbeat assessment of the economy after their two-day meeting ended. By Don Lee, Los Angeles Times April 25, 2012, WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve upgraded its outlook for the economy, predicting the unemployment rate would fall to as low as 7.8% in the fourth quarter — a drop that could have a significant effect on the presidential election.

Just three months ago, most Fed policymakers expected the nation's jobless figure to be 8.2%, its current rate, or higher in the last three months of the year.

The improved outlook, issued Wednesday at the end of a two-day Fed meeting, reflects a sharper-than-expected drop in unemployment in recent months and projections for slightly faster economic growth this year, including some improvement in the downtrodden housing market.

Nonetheless, the U.S. economy will expand only moderately over coming quarters, the central bank said in a policy statement that accompanied the new quarterly forecast.

Fed officials voted 9 to 1 to stick with their existing easy-money policies, reaffirming a pledge to keep short-term interest rates at record lows through 2014. The Fed's federal funds rate, which has been near zero since late 2008, influences loan rates for businesses and consumers.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

Yes, and I'm upgrading the outlook for my fastball. It may increase to 95mph by the fourth quarter of this year..

[DemforBush]

Hmmm...I smell the dropping of a male cow here. Funny how the unemployment rate is somehow magically under the 8% mark right in time for campaign season.

[Kahuna]

Since the Feds make up the numbers each month, you can take 7.8% or less to the bank.

[Donnafrflorida]

Really. How many really believe this crap? If the say it often enough....
Just look around. nothing is better. absolutely NOTHING!!!!

[Donnafrflorida]

after the election it will get “readjusted” to the real number” which is likely 18%

[Vendome]

No Shiite, Taqiyah ....

[Qbert]

“At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained.”

- Ben Bernanke
March, 2007

[FlingWingFlyer]

It looks like Barry has given his little commie piggies in his state run propaganda machine their marching orders. “Fix” the economy for me or I’m toast. Let the communist propaganda begin! It’s reelection time!

[Vendome]

“It is very important to look not just at the unemployment rate, which reflects only people who are actively seeking work,” Bernanke said in response to a lawmaker’s question during his testimony. “There are also a lot of people who are either out of the labor force because they don’t think they can find work” or who have taken part-time jobs.

 

He etimated that unemmployment would average 8.2-8.5% in the fourth quarter with the economy growing by some 2.2%(Frickin maybeee)

[Kickass Conservative]

Pharaoh Obama.

So it is written, so it shall be done.

[ldish]

hitler couldn’t have lied more...in his ERROR!

[familyop]

That’s pretty funny.

[SoldierDad]

There will soon be 90,000 fewer people in CA receiving unemployment checks. This was reported today. If this is happening in CA, it’s likely happening elsewhere. People who are no onger receiving unemployment are dropped out of the figures for being unemployed. This is how Obozo is cutting the unemployment rate. Not through job creation, but through attrition. OMG = Obama Must Go!

[chiller]

But we won’t know for sure, POP, how fast your fastball actually was in the final quarter of the season until stats are analyzed sometime in January

We’ll just take your word for it.

As for Obie; nobody believes his crap. Too many lies...much too desperate

[nathanbedford]

My take:

Market obviously reacted quite favorably in America and that resonated around the world to the Asian markets today.

The Fed will stand pat leaving the economic picture undisturbed by intervention barring dramatic turn in events.

Interest rates will remain roughly where they are, with Fed interventions to monetize debt limited, if possible, meaning little change is expected in interest rates, or in the moderate course of increasing inflation. No bad news for gold which should somewhat benefit in such an environment.

No significant improvements to be expected GDP, housing, or employment.

On the political side:

No significant help for Obama; no significant improvement in employment by election date; no significant reduction in the price of gasoline-inflation can actually generate more increases; no significant improvement in housing.

If the Fed report prevails, Obama will have to defend the status quo without credible evidence of significant improvement on the horizon.

The LA Times, of course, has put about the best spin it could on this forecast but it really offers no lifeline for Obama and no "hope" or "change." Certainly, contrary to the headline, no help in unemployment in time for the election.

My suspicion is that even if Obama gets lucky and job creation accelerates in time to be perceived by the electorate, the situation will remain murky because the official unemployment number will remain stubbornly high as more and more phantom unemployed who are not currently counted move back into the statistical registry as they seek work.

Nothing here to change the dynamic.

[Vendome]

Where’d you read that?

thnx in advance.

Be back in hour.

[Washi]

The government will, absolutely, calculate the unemployment rate to be below 8% by election day and the media will run the story wall to wall.

[Washi]

The government will, absolutely, calculate the unemployment rate to be below 8% by election day and the media will run the story wall to wall.

...and a majority of the voting public will be easily duped and vote accordingly.

[calex59]

Yes, and I am predicting that at the age of 70 I can finally military press 600 lbs.

[hcastaigne]

I wouldn’t say NOTHING is better. My company is hiring like gangbusters (we can’t fill slots fast enough) and most folk I know who were laid off are all fully employed by now. But they’re all engineer and IT peeps; I don’t know how other types are doing. I’m pretty sure the majority who are unemployed are ‘soft’ people, working marketing, HR, or other useless junk.

[Kharis13]

This is just liberals dreaming out loud. Obama’s economy has now passed the fail safe point, i.e. it’s too late for this dead economy to turn around in time for the election AND have the pendulum of public opinion on the economy also swing back his way. The MSM can crow all they want about “recovery summer” but it won’t mean a hill of beans to the millions who are unemployed or under-employed. Reality is a b**tch and our Dear Leader knows it.

Newt was right: the economy will begin to grow the night of November 6th, 2012, when the American public knows Obama has been defeated. Just hang on for a few more months, folks.

[kearnyirish2]

“But they’re all engineer and IT peeps; I don’t know how other types are doing. I’m pretty sure the majority who are unemployed are ‘soft’ people, working marketing, HR, or other useless junk.”

The financial sector has taken a hit that it will not recover from anytime soon; a lot of MBAs watched their jobs go to Asia (and they won’t be coming back). Even the tech sector has its wages suppressed by Asian imports; there is growth in tech as long as the projects are geared to sending more jobs out of the country. Anyone I know who lost a job in the last 5 years is making a lot less money now (even if they are doing the same work); Obama will lose on the job market situation itself. Lying about unemployment numbers doesn’t deceive many people anymore; it can’t conceal the fact that they are much worse off than four years ago (working or not).

[kearnyirish2]

“Obama’s economy has now passed the fail safe point, i.e. it’s too late for this dead economy to turn around in time for the election AND have the pendulum of public opinion on the economy also swing back his way.”

From your lips to God’s ears; I hope they aren’t able to pull off a massive scheme to convince enough people anything is really improving. Here in NJ it appears the “shovel-ready” projects from a few years ago are getting started in anticipation of the election; roads are blocked off for construction, with construction vehicles scattered about while men (many affirmative action types) in safety vests lounge around talking (and drawing pay).

[SampleMan]

Everyone is getting a job down at the unicorn stables.

[6SJ7]

They’re not “unemployed”, they’re “unexpected retirees”.

[SnuffaBolshevik]

"My company is hiring like gangbusters (we can’t fill slots fast enough) and most folk I know who were laid off are all fully employed by now."

hcastaigne 4-25-2012.

Welcome to Free Republic!

[Wurlitzer]

A prediction of UFOs landing and having a galactic convention in Las Vegas would have more veracity than ANY economic number from the Federal government especially right before the election.

We know for a fact the UE numbers are deliberately low. We know for a fact, especially since Carter, the Cost Of Living/Inflation numbers are bogus beyond belief.

The propaganda masters in the MSM will give 100% cover to this administration in a bid to keep Marxism alive at the Federal level.

Figures don’t lie if liars don’t figure but that is exactly what we have at every level of government. Either direct lies or lies by omission are the daily duties of the propaganda ministers and the ignorant lap it up.

I am exactly the opposite of the First Wookie. I was once very proud of the USA. Now I am ashamed to the core. We have miserably failed the Founders who risked everything to give us a limited government and an abundance of opportunities. I am ashamed. We now live in a dictatorship and the dictator is not even a Natural Born Citizen. If Mubumbo Odumbo is the best the black community has to offer, we are in for a rapid decline towards an entire country looking like Detroit.

[capt. norm]

after the election it will get “readjusted” to the real number” which is likely 18%

Especially if Romney is elected.

Plus there will be a huge upturn in homelessness which is a topic unheard of during Democrat administrations.

[Nip]

“Federal Reserve policymakers said unemployment could fall to 7.8% in the fourth quarter. They project slightly faster economic growth this year, including improvement in housing.”

Let's see - the fourth quarter report comes out in mid to late October. What happens two to three week's later?

Add to this the Feds have a long running track record of changing reported results downwards (worse) a week or two after the initial reporting. That would take the final (”accurate”) numbers to being released immediately before the elections.

The final ingredient is the physopsthic reactions of the LMSM - the reporting of the the “revised” (aka “accurate”) final numbers wouldn't appear on the wires until the morning after.

And yes, I chose the term “morning after” for a reason.

[Donnafrflorida]

dont forget all the school kids starving. they only starve when dems arent in office.