Posted on 04/21/2012 5:23:59 AM PDT by Kaslin
Wall Street headlines are full of fears of a springtime stall for the already subpar economic recovery. And if that weren’t bad enough for Obama’s reelection chances, a spate of new polls show Mitt Romney’s economic-approval ratings are far outdistancing the president’s.
Even while the headline surveys basically show an Obama-Romney tossup, it will be very difficult for Obama to pull out a victory this fall. Traditionally, incumbents who poll below 50 percent are in trouble. And with Obama consistently in the mid-40s, he has a tough uphill climb ahead.
Of course, a subpar recovery has kept the president’s reelection hopes in doubt for some time. Former Bush economist Ed Lazear calls it the worst recovery in history. Okay. That may be a partisan shot. But actually, the data points bear this out.
At roughly 2.5 percent growth, the Obama recovery is way below the 4.5 percent average since World War II. And within Obama’s 2.5 percent economy, polling data show high voter anxiety over gas prices, home values, and the ability to pay mortgages. Voters even worry that they won’t be able to afford to send their kids to college.
The unemployment rate may have come down to 8.3 percent. But the problem for several years is that discouraged workers have been dropping out of the labor force. So real-world unemployment is considerably higher than the official stats.
And if all this weren’t bad enough for the president, recent economic numbers are going in the wrong direction: Initial jobless claims have increased about 6 percent. Existing homes sales and housing starts have fallen the last two months. Manufacturing, which has been a very positive story (assisted by rock-bottom natural-gas prices from the shale revolution), actually fell last month. And while retail sales continue to be a bright spot, incomes after inflation -- including high gas and food prices -- may not be keeping up.
Perhaps the most optimistic statistic is the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. This measure has increased six straight months and stands at its highest level in four years, a good sign that the 2.5 percent trendline growth rate will continue without a double dip. But it’s still only 2.5 percent growth.
No one can yet tell if any of the economic soft spots are reflected in the latest polls. But the economic headlines read badly. And overall disappointment on the economy is undoubtedly why former governor Mitt Romney has such a strong lead in economic approval.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll puts that lead at six points. Rasmussen has it at ten. And Quinnipiac has voter disapproval of Obama’s handling of the economy at a whopping 56 percent.
At this point in the election cycle, Romney is in stronger shape for November than almost anyone appreciates. He is consolidating political support from all sections of the Republican party. And while the economy is the biggest election-year issue, it’s also Romney’s greatest strength.
Whether independent voters yet understand all of Romney’s free-enterprise, merit-based, limited-government, tax-cutting policies is not yet clear. Really, he is still introducing himself to the general public. But what is clear is that the very same general public is very unhappy with the economy, and blames President Obama for it.
Obama owns the economic angst. His big-government policies have not solved it. All his finger pointing and blame-game, enemies-list excuses are not working. That’s really what the polls are telling us. And unless something very big and very positive happens to the economy in the next few months, Mr. Obama is in a heap of trouble.
As for Mitt Romney, right now he may be the most underrated politician in America. The odds of a Romney win come November look increasingly good.
I suspect that many of those who have dropped out of the workforce are working in the underground economy along with a hoard of illegal immigrants. Regardless of the makeup of the underground economy, there is a huge drain on government revenue.
2.5% GDP It must be restated that GDP reflects consumer spending, business investments, and GOVERNMENT SPENDING. So If you take out the 1.2 TRILLION in deficit spending, what really is the actual health of the economy? The Government spending is the only thing that allows “economists” to use the word “recovery”.
1% GPD growth? Pathetic.
Exactly ,,, and that gov’t “spending” as it is all freshly printed money is debt adding to inflation which isn’t deducted out of the equation either.
Excellent article!
Romney is talking solutions while Obama is desperately continuing to look for somebody, something, anybody else to blame for his failures.
“Obama is continuing to look for somebody, something, anybody else to blame for his failures.”
And it just might work in November.
IMHO
The Dems are facing a potential political catastrophe but they refuse to see the freight train coming. Persistent unemployment, sluggish economy, high energy prices, rising inflation, a despised healthcare mandate, oppressive regulations, an increasing tax burden, etc. The perfect storm is brewing and the electorate may well take it out on them and afford the Republicans the golden opportunity to set things right.
A very good point, and one that gets precious little mention in the media. Excellent post.
“Obama is desperately continuing to look for somebody, something, anybody else to blame for his failures”
This has been a consistent pattern with Hussain, and not just in the economic realm. He in nothing more than a community agitator who has no leadership abilities whatsoever.
And 5.4 million people have started drawing disability under Obama. Most of them started when their unemployment checks ran out.
8.3% unemployment as cited is way off. The BLS is fudging the numbers big time. Check zero hedge for numbers. We cannot trust “nonpartisan” government agencies because they are populated with liberal democrat partisans. The shadow government needs to be purged by the conservatives.
Unless something very big happens to the economy in the next few months, Mr. Obama is in a heap of trouble.
Any bets on how much taxes will increase very soon?.
This will not be a two man race. Christie Todd Whitman’s group will be unveiling their “bipartisan” third party candidate. Our allegedly post-partisan prez can coast to a win with an approval rate in the 30’s.
Unless, of course, the GOP-E shoves a candidate with a 34 percent approval rating down the throats of the party members. Last I checked, mid-forties usually can beat mid-thirties.
The title misled me.
I thought this might be an article about the end toilet at the Gay Bathhouse Obama uses.
Oh well. Guess I’ll read it anyway.
The private sector economy is smaller than it was in 2007.
4 years under Obama and all we’ve gotten is more debt and fewer jobs.
He’s been a total failure.
Oh yea of little faith. Latest Ras and Gallup head-to-heap polls shows Romney beating Obama, and Gallup’s is not even doing likely voters yet. Obama is stuck in mid-40s approval.
He’s in deep doodoo.
Sorry, but the Obama machine hasn’t yet done to Romney what Romney did to his opponents in the GOP primary. Romney’s only advantage in the GOP primary was money - he had far more of it than his opponents. He will not have that advantage in the general. Romney could possibly withstand that attack if he currently had good positive numbers. He doesn’t.
“the Obama machine hasn’t yet done to Romney what Romney did to his opponents in the GOP primary”
Not for lack of trying:
- the Occupy movement was designed specifically to rile up class warfare against self-made demi-billionaire Romney ... well, the buffett rule just died in Congress with a whimper, on news Obama’s paid just 20% of their salary in taxes. People want JOBS more than they want to eat the rich, and rate Romney as better on the economy.
- Hilary Rosen attack on Ann stay-at-home Romney backfired spectacularly, pushing millions of moms away from the DNC elites, then we find out she was advising DNC head on what to say. geez.
- Obama ate dogs became news after Team Obama went after Romney’s dog story. Another ‘backfire’.
- the Obama teams: “GOP war on women” meme has fizzled.
Obama will KEEP trying to desperately change the subject away from his dismal record, but it wont really work because people have one #1 issue - the economy.
“Romney is talking solutions while Obama is desperately continuing to look for somebody, something, anybody else to blame for his failures.”
That’s a good point.
Obama is just trying to buy votes, his latest stunt is college loan rates. He has no plan to help the economy.
Romney will get hit with his own history and his own foot-in-mouth words. And it won't be a fair fight because the MSM will be joining in. He is used to having a massive monetary advantage against his GOP primary opponents. He won't have that in the general. He just doesn't appeal to many people, and his favorite alternative approach of tearing down the other guy isn't going to work when the other guy can tear him down even harder.
Oh, I hope not. 3rd party will kill us for sure.
Boo! Hiss! Boo! Hiss! (Stamping feet on ground) Bad on Mitt Romney for pulling ahead of Obama in the polls. Shame on the Republicans who voted for Mitt Romney in the primaries. (Making gagging sound and clawing at my chest) Boo! Hiss! Mitt Romney ties his dog to the top of his car! Boo! Hiss!
OK, now that I have that out of the way, let me comment on the notion that Obama and MSM are holding back their fire until the general election. They are not in a position of strength to do that. Obama is mired in the mid-40s and for an incumbent, that is toxic. Further, Obama is a known quantity this time around. The "hope and change" meme won't work.
In 1980, the Reagan used the "are you better off than four years ago" message to devastate Carter because there is no comeback for that. The GOP nominee is in even better position to use that message this time around because Obama is EVEN WORSE than Carter.
No doubt Obama is going to be in the debates this fall yapping about what he is going to do if he is re-elected. All the GOP nominee has to do is look Obama straight in the eyes and remind him he has been the president for the past four years and ask him to tell the American people why he hasn't already done the things he is talking about doing. I'm sure the GOP debate prep people can wrap that into a nice sound bite that will bring the house down.
I'm sure the Obama crowd will be emptying their bag of dirty tricks and will bring out the class warfare. But as another poster on this thread pointed out, Obama only paid 20% taxes on $800,000 in income last year. For the average workingman who pays a higher rate on a fraction of that income, any attempts on Obama's part to paint his opponent as "not paying his fair share" will fall flat.
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Welfare has increased by 41% in the 3 years Obama has been in the White Hut......
It’s the stupid Kenyan stupid!
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