Posted on 04/05/2012 9:01:40 AM PDT by varmintman
Dick Morris' "Lunch" video this morning involves a claim that a realistic reading of today's polls indicate that Romney (or anybody else other than Rick Santorum more or less) will beat Obama very badly. The basic gist is that Obama needs to be over 50% among likely voters at this point to break even and the fact of his being no better than around 45 spells wipeout in November since the undecideds almost never break for an incumbent under such circumstances.
Morris notes that it's as if marriages were five year contracts with options to renew and somebody were to ask your husband or wife at year four if they were planning on renewing, and they said they'd have to think about it...
When is the last time Morris was right about anything?
Uh Oh.... Dicky boy is often very wrong in his predictions....
Truth 100,
Morris 0.
Last time I checked.
WTH data is Morris looking at?
Morris predictions are worthless.
Tell me which of Kerry's states, if any, he's not going to carry. How does he lose them? What groups fade away.
Give me specifics.
But in this case, we're talking about many millions of very dull sheeple who are quite willing to receive abuse so long as they get an occasional freebie thrown their way.
“Uh Oh.... Dicky boy is often very wrong in his predictions....
Yeah. This is what worries me about hearing something Morris says that I agree with. I DO think (most of the time) that 0bama loses big.
Who is Obama going to run against then?
Romney sure the he!! isn’t going to beat Obama!
I agree. In firming up his base, Obama is showing his true nature and alienating moderate middle-class voters. Moreover, many people who say they are leaning to Obama are just giving the politically correct answer, and in the privacy of the voting booth will pull the other lever.
It could be comparable to 1980, IMHO. It doesn’t matter how bad Romney is, people will be voting against the incumbent.
Oh no. Say it isn’t so, Dick.
Many things can happen between now and November. That’s an entire baseball season + the World Series.
Mitt is going in with his obvious problems: low support from Conservatives, RomneyCare and his magic underwear.
Obama is dragged down by ObamaCare, high gas prices, high unemployment, and trillions in new debt.
It’s really a question of who reeks less and how many dead people vote in blue states. The American voter can’t really be trusted to decide based on what is true or prudent.
today’s rasmussen tracking poll (as shown on rcp) shows Romney over obama by 2 nationally, and Santorum under obama by 2 nationally.
Pretty close election either way. At this stage, today, Romney is polling slightly better than Santorum, but Santorum is very much within range. Romney does not have a lock in the “electability” argument with TODAYS NUMBERS. But he does have an advantage over Santorum.
(I am not advocating anything by the above. I’m just reporting the facts and drawing some basic conclusions.
personally, I think obama is the favorite for November....but I would love to be wrong!)
Exactly. Obama has 250+ all but guaranteed EVs before the first vote is recorded. He gets all of Kerry's states, plus NV and probably CO. Romney has about 160. All else will be up for grabs.
If gas prices stay high he will lose many more states, especially rural Midwest states like MI.
Bingo. Most don't have a clue of why certain issues are vital to this country. They keep a narrow view on what puts a couple more $ in their pocket, along with their favorite social cause and focus on those.
So I don’t have to feel bad about not voting for the RINO in November?
The city of Destroyed will have to depopulate a whole lot more between now and November for Romney to have a shot of winning MI. "Obama's Stash" is very popular there.
Just what Obama has done on gas prices should make him toast. But even that is not needed. Obama has spit in the face of the white folks that got him elected. A tiny few will be back voting for him due to white guilt but because Obama has divided the races on purpose and basically said those white folks are racists they won't be voting for him again.
Obama, simply put, is a dumbass. He had the greatest opportunity in American history to bring the country together. Instead he has been a punk and a puke. A thug. Obama has been the punk in the hooded jacket walking very closly behind us on a dark street. This is going to cost him dearly. There is a long list of other things that will contribute to his being defeated in a landslide. And it will be a very big landslide. A tsunami that voter fraud will not be able to overcome.
No, I don't need Morris to tell me this. I knew it already.
I'm voting for a conservative.
I wouldn’t take the chance if I were y’all.
I hope Dick Morris is right, but what’s his record.
Vote against Obama.
I agree with the Toe Sucker, but for different reasons.
In the Trayvon Martin case, Obama has lit the fuse on a nationwide race war.
Any voter who is not black realizes that he or she is the target of that war, and will be in serious trouble if the leader of that war were to gain a second term.
So they’ll run screaming to the GOP and vote for a yellow dog, a warm bucket of spit, or perhaps even Mitt Romney.
It’s the Southern Strategy, more wildly successful than Nixon ever dreamed it could be.
My thoughts exactly.
From your lips to God's ears!!
Comrade "O" has got to GO!!!
It is being said George Soros likes Romney. That means Romney will change nothing Obama has done and will make things worse. We need to elect someone else.
Anyone other than Obama and Romney.
i think obama is the favorite...but, I also think what you say here could end up being relevant:
“Any voter who is not black realizes that he or she is the target of that war, and will be in serious trouble if the leader of that war were to gain a second term.”
obviously that sentiment will not show up clearly in polling anytime soon...SO...there IS a possibility that come mid October, obama could start sinking and it could end up a blow out, ala 1980. That “could” happen.
(Note to Romney: if you end up winning big, it doesn’t mean you are Reagan. It just means that obama is worse than Carter).
Based off the Kerry states won, Obama will struggle with PA and WI. We need to worry about VA, NC, and FL. Not sure about NV, NM, and CO going Red. If we keep those 3 and PA or WI flips + the others hold steady, even Willard can win. Not too big an “if” IMHO.
The sentiment is out there now. Wait until they start burning Detroit, Philly and Baltimore this summer.
Not to mention the neo-hippie antics of Occupy Wall Street.
I still chuckle about Morris and his toe sucking incident.
The woman who was involved was not only from Pittsburgh....she was from the exact neighborhood in Pittsburgh were, when I was a kid, you used to go cruising if your intentions were to meet a girl like that.
I take it he’s not accounting for the third-party spoiler by which Obama can win with a plurality.
Did that last time. And dangit.. he still won.
One thing I really appreciate about the FR experience is the centralization of valuable, pertinent information. At one time, admittedly out of ignorance, I was 50/50 about Romney. But the wealth of information that has since flowed in here has convinced me that beneath that carefully arranged wool disguise is a liberal wolf anxious to spring out into full view. The man is full of more sh*t than a Christmas goose, and those conservative-flavored soundbites are simply rehearsed garbage.
I'm convinced. Voting for Romney is one.. BAD.. idea.
Diito yups
“Romney sure the he!! isn’t going to beat Obama!”
1996.
Remember how we had that hope back in 2008, i.e. the hoped-for, but nonexistent "Bradley Effect?"
That ought to be one of those mindless chants i.e. “One-two-three-fo’ comrade “O” has got to go!”
yet.....obama is still, at this time, if you go state by state, the odds on favorite:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/153764/Obama-Solidifying-Lead-Among-Independents-Swing-States.aspx
The crabby “principled” Freepers and the Soros brigade have shown up. They enthusiastically agree that we are going to get four more years of Our Beloved Leader. I can’t go along with that. As a doctor, I do not first kill my patient in order to save him. Obama is killing America, aided and abetted by communists and Freepers.
That’s unadulterated bullshit! How do you fix your mouth to speak of Freepers that way!
How old are? You're not seriously comparing one of the greatest politicians, communicators and Presidents of all-time to one of the weakest potential Presidential nominees in history, Mitt Romney, are you?
Or MAYBE you are really thinking "obama is a big loser..." all the time?
I don't care! OFF WITH YOUR HEAD!
Mitt Romney is the Nidal Hasan of the Republican party, someone on the liberal side of the war ready to destroy as much of conservatism as possible.
in the true tradition of free republic....where we are compelled to prove how conservative we are but implicitly if not explicitly advocating obama’s re-election.
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But, Romney isn't going to do the same thing and set back the conservative movement at the same time?
Romney will leave the Republican party in worse shape than George W. Bush did. And, we'll get Romneycare, new taxes and, perhaps, another David Souter before he is done.
I prefer “Welcome to FR! Come for the analysis, stay for the knee-jerking!”
Obama’s going to cream romney so bad the GOP will completely implode and vanish by 2016, but it won’t make a difference since this will be the last real election.
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