Posted on 03/24/2012 6:01:54 PM PDT by icwhatudo
When To Start Watching: Polls will close for the Louisiana Republican primary at 8 p.m. CDT (9 p.m. EDT). Results will begin to come in around 8:30 p.m. CDT.
What's At Stake: Twenty of the state's 46 delegates are up for grabs Saturday, divided proportionately among all candidates who receive more than 25 percent of the vote in the state. Louisiana hosts a closed primary, meaning only registered Republicans may vote for the four candidates in the GOP contest.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
With 28% reporting:
Santorum 47
Romney 27
Gingrich 17
Paul 6
Isn’t it winner-take-all at 50%
Maybe, but after looking at the exit polls, it appears more people than not have had their minds made up for more than just a few days.
With 33% reporting:
Santourum: 48%
Romney: 27%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 6%
“But in other news, I am coming along well with my harmonica lessons. ;>)”
Plan to be a music man when the SHTF? Got water, food? I’ll probably have to save you when the time comes.
Observation: For those Romney supported irritated that Newt is still in the race, note that if the present trend continues, Mitt’s percentage in Louisiana will dip below 25%, which is the threshold required to get a single delegate in that state.
And keeping Mitt below below 25% could not have been done without Newt competing in Louisiana and getting somewhere between 15% and 20% (unless you think that in a Santorum v. Romney race, Rick would have got over 70% + Paul’s 5%, thus keeping Mitt below 25%.)
This pattern may very well repeat itself in upcoming states. So send Newt some flowers; he’s helping to keep Romney below 1,144.
I think it is. After looking at the exit polls, it’s doubtful Santorum will get to the 50%.
If Newt was not running, Santorum would have garnered almost 60% of the vote.
With 47% Reporting:
Santorum: 49%
Romney: 26%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 6%
If Rick gets over 50 percent, he gets all the Delegates.
I am ready, but I doubt that I am as ready as you. Hope you like blues harp.
Beautiful bus.
OK, maybe I jumped the gun on the results but just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you.
And surely you see the difference between Clinton and the Come-back-kid and Santorum. I see a concerted effort to keep Santorum down.
Swell, just swell - I’ll be doing the work and you’ll be playing a damn harp. I’ll get your favorite duck, forgot her name, and threaten to eat her to get you working. Or, you could play with my Yorkie, that would be okay.
You know we are coming to that outcome if Hussein wins.
What about the other 26?
That bus left the station already.
Santorum just hit 50% with 62 percent Reporting. If he breaks 50%, he get all the Delegates.
Those are narrow swimming pool lanes behind our hero.
And that is the objective.
Rick made it to 50%
The cities (Shreveport, Lafayette, BR, and NO) all slow to report in. Though Sherveport is Romney at the moment, very little vote in, I expect that to flip. I think Rick may do better in NO than expected.
At this pace, Rick is doing even better than Huckabee from 2008 http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#LA
Santorum back down to 49%... 62 percent Reporting.
What is taking so long with these three counties?
They’re parishes ;-)
not sure, but in comparison to some of the other states, they’ve been pretty quick. polls closed for 90 minutes and 65% in. Not too bad.
2/3 of the vote in, and Newt has 16%...will he really stay in the race? I read somewhere you have to get at least 25% of the vote to get delegates.
CNN is playing games. If you add up the totals right now, you come up with 97%.
Are they including fringe candidates? Roemer alone is pulling over 1%, and Bachman and Perry are both carrying significant fractions of a percent.
Thanks, posted earlier but took a while to submit.
Wish Rick could get to 50+ tonight.
Let’s focus a lot on Wisconsin/Maryland the next 10 days.
Newt and the remainder of Orleans Parish will prevent Santorum from getting 50%+.
where’s a page with the full results? It’s because there’s about 1,000 or so votes for other candidates not in the race (Perry, Bachmann, Cain, Johnson, etc)
I don’t know if he stays in. He has said he would, but 16% is pretty low. I’m so sad.
Congrats to the Santorum supporters, btw.
To give credit where it’s due, the Huffington post has a real time map, by parish. Just put your mouse pointer over the parish for their results:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/24/louisiana-primary-results-2012_n_1376348.html
Drudge gave Mittens more press for winning islands than he is giving Santorums huge win in LA.
It still might be close—150 of 366 in from Orleans. Santorum is getting killed there (only about 25% of the vote) but there are less than 3200 votes total between the 150 precincts.
Refresh the CNN Map (It wasn’t automatically loading)
Orleans is the only place Romney is winning in the state right now. Only about 5,000 total votes will come out of here. I think there’s enough outstanding in the rest of the state for Santorum to stay above 50%
So how do these rules work? I had heard if a candidate got over 50% they got all the delegates. Your analysis does not show that, BCrago66no. Instead, it’s proportional for anyone who garners 25% of the vote, right?
70 percent reporting. Santorum still at 49%. He has to break 50% to get all the Delegates.
Jefferson Parish is the other question mark.
Any good news on upcoming WI?
73 percent reporting. Santorum back to 50 percent. Breaks 50%, he gets all the Delegates.
I was just thinking the same thing.
He has one small link, if this were Romney he’d have all sirens and top links devoted to it.
Disgusting.
How is Wisconsin looking?
Interesting comments in this L.A. Times piece. A common thread among many voters, they preferred Gingrich but think he can’t win, so they voted for Santorum. And another one, the people who voted for Mitt Romney didn’t know why they did it (!). GOP-E and RINO media mind control power of suggestion I wager. Seems like most of the Romney voters interviewed were female, and one said they voted for him because he was better-looking than the others.
And several said they liked Newt Gingrich, but didn’t vote for him in the end because they believed he can’t win the nomination.
But Bucher said he had preferred Gingrich for his intelligence, conservative values, leadership skills and political experience. Now, however, he said he believed the former House speaker should exit. “I think he’s got too much baggage and he just cannot make up the gap,” he said.
Wayne Softley, 56, who works as a rigging grip in movie production, also said his first choice was Gingrich, but he thinks the former Georgia congressman is too far behind now. “I just figured I’d give Santorum the vote,” he said. “I’m trying to make my vote count.”
Joseph Natal, who owns a brake inspection business, was inclined to support Gingrich as well, but also chose Santorum. “I didn’t want to waste my vote,” he said.
Lynne North, a 74-year-old retired paralegal, joked that she chose Romney because he was better looking. “We like Romney, and we like what he stands for,” she said.
But her husband, Donald Masinter, 78, a retired salesman, said he didn’t know why he voted for Romney. North suggested, “I think he is more well-rounded.” But Masinter replied, “I really didn’t like anybody that much.”
Elizabeth voted for Romney, but she was at a loss to explain why. “I think she picked him because she thinks he’s going to win and she wanted to get it over with,” William offered. Elizabeth did not disagree.
Jefferson and Orleans have over half of the remaining outstanding precincts—unless the other half are extremely strong Santorum, 50% is probably out of the question.
Santorum still at 50% with 81% Reporting
South La has a heavy Catholic pop. Santa might just squeek out a 51% win.
Rick is going to win Jefferson Parrish.
This is an incredibly strong performance tonight. He’s won where Huckabee didn’t in LA in 08 and carried all of the major cities outside NO
You can’t have my favorite duck, but I name the ones that might someday go into the freezer after democrats. So, you decide if you want to have Obama or Pelosi for dinner. ;>)
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