Very interesting, and maybe a harbinger for economic disaster indeed. However, I would suspect that July driving is ALWAYS much higher than November in normal times. Vacations, more later in the day activites, etc.
However, something to look at for sure.
A better question along the same lines is why did all global commodities soar and stay up there?
I believe it is the Obama risk factor.
Everyone has discounted and moving to their expectations of a lousy presidency.
Yep, if you look at a chart of several years of US gasoline consumption, you get a distinct annual peak-and-valley look, with the peak in summer and the valley in winer, and the oddball being the massive dropoff due to $4+/gallon gas in 2008.
This analysis would have a lot more meaning if it compared December 2010 to December 2011. But in Googling the basic concept, you can see that December 2011 gasoline consumption was the lowest in 15 years, so something is afoot. But this story gives us no working idea of the scope of such.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 46,218.3 | 48,906.1 | 54,111.7 | 49,093.7 | 52,021.3 | 52,517.2 | 51,898.0 | 51,905.6 | 52,676.3 | 50,724.3 | 51,150.8 | 51,879.1 |
| 1984 | 54,148.6 | 55,651.7 | 57,636.0 | 56,937.0 | 58,755.9 | 60,075.0 | 59,055.7 | 59,378.3 | 56,947.3 | 57,386.5 | 58,075.3 | 56,765.8 |
| 1985 | 54,584.3 | 53,829.7 | 57,297.6 | 59,075.2 | 57,563.7 | 58,832.1 | 58,563.3 | 58,096.1 | 56,979.0 | 56,949.0 | 58,100.7 | 60,295.9 |
| 1986 | 55,283.0 | 58,546.4 | 61,250.4 | 62,628.9 | 65,578.7 | 63,294.1 | 62,861.8 | 61,342.4 | 60,341.9 | 60,946.1 | 61,880.4 | 62,290.2 |
| 1987 | 56,488.6 | 60,641.1 | 61,627.2 | 61,733.5 | 61,750.0 | 64,315.2 | 62,404.8 | 62,643.9 | 59,339.3 | 60,707.9 | 58,877.0 | 61,720.2 |
| 1988 | 57,041.0 | 59,900.3 | 61,577.5 | 61,584.1 | 60,701.3 | 62,884.1 | 61,873.2 | 62,450.0 | 61,036.1 | 60,385.3 | 59,783.1 | 63,099.8 |
| 1989 | 55,556.8 | 58,492.6 | 60,500.1 | 60,242.0 | 62,088.7 | 63,521.0 | 62,335.0 | 63,362.0 | 61,922.8 | 61,973.6 | 61,339.0 | 63,182.4 |
| 1990 | 58,138.0 | 57,909.4 | 59,847.0 | 59,600.5 | 60,572.2 | 63,108.6 | 61,531.0 | 63,182.0 | 60,912.1 | 60,295.1 | 60,550.6 | 58,382.1 |
| 1991 | 56,924.5 | 59,384.5 | 61,553.8 | 61,982.0 | 62,244.9 | 63,319.4 | 62,600.6 | 62,534.0 | 60,346.2 | 61,181.3 | 60,442.9 | 61,521.7 |
| 1992 | 56,410.9 | 58,308.6 | 59,639.5 | 59,980.2 | 59,615.2 | 60,353.3 | 60,400.3 | 59,083.7 | 58,579.1 | 59,011.8 | 56,877.6 | 59,287.9 |
| 1993 | 53,826.6 | 57,305.3 | 57,624.8 | 58,138.7 | 57,465.8 | 60,391.1 | 58,807.7 | 58,453.0 | 57,462.3 | 55,432.4 | 55,743.5 | 56,074.7 |
| 1994 | 51,533.7 | 54,270.1 | 55,363.8 | 54,962.1 | 55,523.0 | 57,165.3 | 55,834.5 | 56,393.4 | 54,992.9 | 54,240.5 | 54,480.4 | 55,612.3 |
| 1995 | 51,200.2 | 54,138.2 | 55,592.4 | 55,456.8 | 56,242.2 | 58,547.4 | 56,944.0 | 58,296.8 | 56,580.9 | 55,610.5 | 55,907.4 | 56,471.5 |
| 1996 | 53,039.9 | 54,566.8 | 56,388.2 | 57,183.4 | 57,796.4 | 59,170.9 | 58,909.8 | 59,651.5 | 57,845.3 | 58,456.2 | 58,101.4 | 59,200.7 |
| 1997 | 54,440.6 | 57,313.3 | 58,443.8 | 58,854.0 | 57,840.1 | 59,820.3 | 65,294.2 | 64,803.7 | 63,680.2 | 64,355.2 | 62,252.8 | 66,017.1 |
| 1998 | 59,905.7 | 62,399.8 | 64,533.5 | 59,012.3 | 59,509.7 | 60,837.0 | 67,183.3 | 66,831.0 | 65,146.9 | 65,121.8 | 63,846.8 | 65,401.5 |
| 1999 | 60,254.0 | 62,779.7 | 63,320.2 | 63,722.4 | 63,464.7 | 64,458.4 | 62,669.7 | 61,363.0 | 59,265.4 | 60,415.4 | 59,078.1 | 62,719.0 |
| 2000 | 54,421.0 | 59,107.2 | 60,573.0 | 57,911.6 | 60,300.4 | 63,275.5 | 62,278.2 | 63,621.8 | 63,098.0 | 61,954.7 | 62,184.7 | 62,014.2 |
| 2001 | 58,139.5 | 61,731.0 | 62,859.5 | 62,301.3 | 62,878.9 | 65,417.0 | 62,534.2 | 64,390.5 | 62,214.2 | 60,864.4 | 60,024.8 | 60,793.5 |
| 2002 | 60,211.7 | 63,942.2 | 62,828.5 | 63,953.3 | 64,537.0 | 64,874.0 | 64,594.2 | 66,683.5 | 62,352.4 | 63,344.8 | 63,255.8 | 63,109.4 |
| 2003 | 60,247.9 | 60,803.4 | 60,815.8 | 61,728.4 | 66,315.5 | 66,426.5 | 66,803.1 | 66,812.7 | 63,949.0 | 64,615.5 | 63,778.4 | 63,394.5 |
| 2004 | 57,143.8 | 58,381.7 | 59,186.2 | 59,352.6 | 58,565.7 | 58,992.8 | 59,012.0 | 59,664.1 | 57,327.4 | 57,977.1 | 57,017.9 | 58,013.6 |
| 2005 | 54,938.7 | 58,368.8 | 58,330.0 | 59,093.3 | 59,474.5 | 61,731.9 | 61,109.4 | 61,220.9 | 57,866.5 | 57,075.2 | 59,094.7 | 59,426.1 |
| 2006 | 56,531.8 | 59,960.4 | 59,859.7 | 61,020.8 | 60,234.0 | 61,980.4 | 61,445.8 | 62,015.9 | 59,783.4 | 60,233.2 | 58,860.2 | 57,862.5 |
| 2007 | 54,698.1 | 56,954.9 | 57,278.7 | 57,354.7 | 58,719.6 | 60,865.7 | 58,806.7 | 60,178.5 | 57,912.9 | 57,843.2 | 56,579.0 | 54,650.0 |
| 2008 | 53,994.1 | 56,157.4 | 55,494.8 | 56,307.4 | 56,390.6 | 55,938.5 | 54,802.5 | 55,628.2 | 53,405.9 | 55,210.7 | 54,080.6 | 53,931.5 |
| 2009 | 51,108.7 | 50,968.4 | 51,298.4 | 51,215.6 | 50,957.0 | 50,419.6 | 49,677.9 | 49,966.5 | 48,669.6 | 48,461.0 | 47,454.3 | 47,441.4 |
| 2010 | 44,012.3 | 44,227.1 | 45,482.4 | 46,234.2 | 46,016.2 | 46,765.3 | 45,755.3 | 45,082.6 | 43,876.0 | 43,624.1 | 42,857.0 | 42,417.1 |
| 2011 | 40,331.0 | 40,924.9 | 41,608.1 | 41,555.0 | 41,172.9 | 42,477.2 | 42,448.3 | 42,351.8 | 41,972.6 | 32,015.0 | 30,934.0 | |
It's clear demand has been dropping off since the middle of 2009. But I wonder if the sharp drop in October and November is not simply a data problem — reports not all in — that isn't real and will get revised upward.
The idea that people curtail discretionary driving as an austerity measure should not be surprising. The media has sold Americans on the belief that we have a "love affair with the auto," implying that demand is inelastic. Obviously, except for adolescent nuts, that is bullshit. As people mature, driving becomes less an adventure, or leisure time activity, and more a time-consuming necessity.
I have been cutting down for years on driving so I can have more time(and money) to do other, more interesting things. I suspect I'm not alone.