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Newt Gingrich surges in national polls
Washington Post ^ | 01/23/2012

Posted on 01/23/2012 12:55:17 PM PST by Mount Athos

One week ago, Mitt Romney amassed a record 23-point lead in Gallup tracking polls. But in the latest poll released Monday, the former Massachusetts governor’s advantage has evaporated to a single percentage point among Republican-leaning registered voters. Romney now stands at 29 percent to Gingrich’s 28 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: elections; florida; gingrich; newt; poll
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To: Mount Athos; Jim Robinson
VIDEO: Florida GOP Primary: Gingrich 41%, Romney 32%

Scott Rasmussen with Greta Van Sustern on Fox News...

84% will vote for the GOP candidate vs. 8% for 0bama
51 posted on 01/23/2012 1:59:26 PM PST by Brown Deer (Pray for 0bama. Psalm 109:8)
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To: Haiku Guy

New Tag Line...


52 posted on 01/23/2012 2:00:44 PM PST by Haiku Guy (As soon as Romney / Is not "inevitable" / He drops like a stone)
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To: KJC1

NBC is running it 9-10:30pm ET.


53 posted on 01/23/2012 2:08:18 PM PST by newzjunkey (Santorum has the Big Mo' right now in FL. /s)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade
The good news is that for every time Romney attacks Newt in the debates, Newt gets a chance to respond.

Same for Santorum.

Oddly, the more Santorum attacks the lower his polls go.

He's just not liked.

54 posted on 01/23/2012 2:12:31 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Haiku Guy

As soon as Romney
Is not inevitable,
He drops like a stone.


Rush said, run conservatist.
America is!
When we run centrist, we lose.


55 posted on 01/23/2012 2:12:44 PM PST by txhurl
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To: forgotten man
I would not be surprised if 0bama refused to debate Gingrich.

I wonder what pretext he will gin up to justify his refusal?

I expect that a charge of "racism" will soon be made against Newt. He could use that, at last temporarily.

Oh, come to think of it, the race card was already played against Newt by Sheila Jackson Lee two days ago.

Obama could say something like "it would demean the office of the President if I were to appear on the same stage with the racist GOP nominee." The State-Run Media would love it.

56 posted on 01/23/2012 2:14:48 PM PST by Steely Tom (Obama goes on long after the thrill of Obama is gone)
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To: Jim Robinson; TitansAFC; TBBT; annieokie; RitaOK

Romney said “Newt is an Oct. surprise everyday” wonder how he likes the S.C. surprise and the Fla poll numbers surprise? now, the national polls...WOOT! WOOT! GO NEWT!


57 posted on 01/23/2012 2:19:39 PM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: Williams

Right !

And BTW he should work and improve his look and firstable his wife’s look with her fake blond hairs


58 posted on 01/23/2012 2:32:27 PM PST by Ulysse (a)
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To: mmanager

“...group is Newt too conservative to draw in the 20% of independents. I looked him straight in the eye and told him this conversation took place in 1979...”

Indeed. Remember what the political landscape looked like in Georgia pre-Newt. Compare to how it STILL looks today.

Compare pre-Mitt Massachussettes to post.... wait. When did one end and the other begin?


59 posted on 01/23/2012 2:57:26 PM PST by getitright (If you call this HOPE, can we give despair a shot?)
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To: kalee; TitansAFC; onyx; LuvFreeRepublic; Sea Parrot; SweetCaroline; matthew fuller; Gator113; ...

Newtmentum goes national!


60 posted on 01/23/2012 2:58:37 PM PST by TitansAFC (Next time, GOP Establishment, back someone who isn't totally despised by the grassroots!)
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To: txhurl

What percentage of conservatives turned out for a milque toast moderate like McCain? I suspect that it was less than 100%. Newt would fire up 100% of conservatives to turn out AND probably fire up a whole new generation of yoots to become conservative and get active just by showing us a campaign the likes of which has never been seen.

Courage is contagious. Mediocrity, cowardice, compromising your soul in the hopes that evil people will hate you a little less, these things do not inspire.


61 posted on 01/23/2012 3:12:49 PM PST by getitright (If you call this HOPE, can we give despair a shot?)
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To: Mount Athos
This is great. Ha Ha. I hope he keeps up the great debate performances. All three candidates and the media will be letting him have it with both barrels.

If he is able to refute them with humor as well as passion, Newt should have an additional surge.

62 posted on 01/23/2012 3:45:25 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: TitansAFC

Nice Newty will crush Obomo.

When will Santorum DROP OUT and support Newt ...?


63 posted on 01/23/2012 3:48:00 PM PST by Ulysse (a)
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To: Proudcongal

[What is it with these morons, that they just don’t get it?]

Two words: Delphi Technique

A way to manipulate the listeners.


64 posted on 01/23/2012 4:02:37 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: forgotten man
I would not be surprised if 0bama refused to debate Gingrich.

Newt doesn't expect that "O' will take his debate challenge. But Newt wins anyway because that will make "O" look like a wimp AND Newt has said if he doesn't debate, that he, Newt, will follow behind him everywhere he speaks and do a rebuttal speech within hours.

Do you have any idea how WATCHED that game would be.

And if the "O" does debate, he's toast.

One tight corner Newt has painted the "O" into.

Newt is the Jack Bauer of politics.

65 posted on 01/23/2012 4:05:38 PM PST by maine-iac7 (A prudent man foreseeth the evil,... but the simple pass on, and are punished. Prov 23:3 KJV)
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To: Mount Athos

Who’s the lucky CNN guy tonight?

Do you think “JOHN!” will dare?


66 posted on 01/23/2012 4:06:51 PM PST by maine-iac7 (A prudent man foreseeth the evil,... but the simple pass on, and are punished. Prov 23:3 KJV)
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To: Jim Robinson

You got that right. If Obama refuses to debate, Gingrich will set up and empty chair with an empty suit representing Obama and pound away at him.


Would not a teleprompter in the chair be more appropriate? I would pay to see that..................


67 posted on 01/23/2012 4:11:30 PM PST by PeterPrinciple ( getting closer to the truth.................)
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To: HapaxLegamenon
Anyone here care to second a Newt/Santorum ticket.
68 posted on 01/23/2012 4:13:59 PM PST by maine-iac7 (A prudent man foreseeth the evil,... but the simple pass on, and are punished. Prov 23:3 KJV)
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To: Jim Robinson

Heh, Obama will be in one of those damned if you do, and even worse if he “don’t.”

Can’t wait!


69 posted on 01/23/2012 4:17:44 PM PST by Syncro (Sarah Palin, the unofficial Tea Party candidate for president--Virtual Jerusalem)
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To: maine-iac7

“Anyone here care to second a Newt/Santorum ticket.”

That ship has passed due to Sanitorium’s backstabbing attacks on Newt’s stability and other personal attacks.

Gingrich/Perry
Gingrich/West


70 posted on 01/23/2012 4:19:33 PM PST by rbmillerjr (Conservative Economic and National Security Commentary: econus.blogspot.com)
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To: hoosiermama

Just announced on Kudlow Report. Newt has released his Freddie Mac Contract.


71 posted on 01/23/2012 4:19:51 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: Mount Athos; Jim Robinson; TitansAFC; 11th_VA; 2nd Amendment; 43north; 6SJ7; Absolutely Nobama; ...

Nice chart of the Gallup 5-day rolling averages.
But another thing to remember is that last data point on the chart represent an average of Gallup data that is

  • 5 days old (Wednesday), and
  • 4 days old (Thursday, before SC debate #2), and
  • 3 days old (Friday), and
  • 2 days old (Saturday, before the SC results were known), and
  • 1 day old (Sunday)
To realize where Gingrich and Romney were nationally SUNDAY, imagine 4 more points on EACH of those trend lines for Newt, Mitt, Rick, etc.
THAT puts Gallup's National poll numbers SUNDAY at roughly:
    Gingrich ~ 39%
    Romney   ~ 26%
    Santorum  ~ 9% 


Also note those Gallup national 'estimates' for Sunday, coincide pretty closely with all the polling taken Sunday in Florida:

Gingrich leads Romney, IN FLORIDA on Sunday, about 40% to 30%.

...I am not surprised that Romney is 4% higher in Florida than nationally, because he spent $7 Million in Florida on advertising.

(In order to fairly compare the three Sunday Florida polls, I used correction factors on the 2012Florida Primary Poll, and the Insider Advantage Poll to get them to the same (92% decided) levels as Rasmussen. The 2012Florida Primary Poll is the least accurate of these three, because of its small sample size of 300, and it used Registered GOP instead of Likely GOP voters.)





Pound him some more Newt!

72 posted on 01/23/2012 4:22:29 PM PST by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
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To: Jim Robinson

Woo hoo!!

Go, Newt!!

Go, Florida!!

Go, tea party!!

Rebellion is on!!


From your lips to God’s ears! Newt and Sarah are the only two conservatives that have been able to fully articulate what we will lose if we continue to allow the Alinsky socialists to rule. We wanted fire and I think we’ve found it again!


73 posted on 01/23/2012 4:23:30 PM PST by MWestMom (Tread carefully, truth lies here.)
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To: Future Useless Eater

Yeah, I just saw that a few minutes ago. Great!


74 posted on 01/23/2012 4:29:48 PM PST by expat1000
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To: onyx

We’re going viral! The GOP elite have got to be going nuts right now trying to figure out what just happened.


75 posted on 01/23/2012 4:30:33 PM PST by TADSLOS (Gingrich-Palin FTW!)
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To: TitansAFC

bump !! Go Newt :)


76 posted on 01/23/2012 4:36:34 PM PST by nicmarlo
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To: forgotten man
I would not be surprised if 0bama refused to debate Gingrich.

It won't matter, if that's the case, Newt will probably debate him in absentia. Anything Obama says or has said will be a topic on which Newt can take an opposite position.

He'll simply debate him in the press with provocative and populist campaign statements...just like he's been doing.

77 posted on 01/23/2012 4:41:16 PM PST by ROCKLOBSTER ( Celebrate Republicans Freed the Slaves Month.)
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To: mmanager

I think you misspelled it. Isn’t it “full newtlear meltdown”?


78 posted on 01/23/2012 4:41:56 PM PST by I_be_tc
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To: Future Useless Eater

Thanks for all your diligent work on sorting out the various polling data, and for posting these informative graphs and analyses.

It really does help others to get a clearer picture of how the race is developing.

Thanks!


79 posted on 01/23/2012 4:43:22 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Future Useless Eater
Impressive, but let's remember that in a three-month period we saw six different national poll leaders, and that they rose and fell literally within a week.

Gingrich has to follow Rush's advice. The media card won't work much longer: he has to explain and expound conservatism and repudiate a couple of his earlier positions. He has a chance here to put Romney away.

80 posted on 01/23/2012 4:47:23 PM PST by LS
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To: rbmillerjr

Yep - I’m hoping for

NEWT/WEST

It would set the country on fire

and the Socialists, their media and the Republican Establishment on suicide watch


81 posted on 01/23/2012 4:54:37 PM PST by maine-iac7 (A prudent man foreseeth the evil,... but the simple pass on, and are punished. Prov 23:3 KJV)
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To: mmanager
The MSM and Republican elite don't get it yet!!!...but they will!!!

Any independent that has 1/2 a brain will vote in their own best interest...I admire them for that....they are not idealogical driven like us...Now after 3 yrs of Obama...75% will vote for ANYBODY else.....They may have to hold their nose..but they will!..that's what they like about being “independent”

Ive quized many of my independent friends and was amazed with their dislike of Obama...even though they voted for him before....They have no qualms about changing because they are INDEPENDANT!....honest!...its amazing!

82 posted on 01/23/2012 4:55:05 PM PST by M-cubed
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To: Future Useless Eater

Was it only a week or two ago that the experts were pointing out how Mitt had timed his momentum perfectly, and was “peaking” at just the right time?

That seems like a long time ago now.


83 posted on 01/23/2012 4:55:13 PM PST by ansel12 (Romney is unquestionably the weakest party front-runner in contemporary political history.)
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To: LS

Gingrich just released his Freddi Mac consulting contract.


84 posted on 01/23/2012 4:55:27 PM PST by MWestMom (Tread carefully, truth lies here.)
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To: LS

Gingrich just released his Freddi Mac consulting contract.


85 posted on 01/23/2012 4:55:37 PM PST by MWestMom (Tread carefully, truth lies here.)
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To: Future Useless Eater
I am not surprised that Romney is 4% higher in Florida than nationally, because he spent $7 Million in Florida on advertising.

But Newt is still beating him across the board.

86 posted on 01/23/2012 4:56:20 PM PST by bgill (The Obama administration is staging a coup. Wake up, America, before it's too late.)
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To: Williams

“Obama loves to hear himself talk...and thinks everyone else loves to hear him talk.”

In all candor I get a headache when I hear his voice. It is more annoying than fingernails scraped across a blackboard, or the boom boom boom of some idiot teenager’s car stereo.


87 posted on 01/23/2012 4:56:48 PM PST by ought-six ( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
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To: ought-six

Me too. His bellowing is sooo annoying. Sounds like he’s yelling into an empty wastebasket.


88 posted on 01/23/2012 5:06:11 PM PST by Inspectorette
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To: greeneyes
Two words: Delphi Technique<<

That only works if you're not aware of it!!

89 posted on 01/23/2012 5:17:35 PM PST by M-cubed
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To: M-cubed

[Two words: Delphi Technique<<
That only works if you’re not aware of it!!]

True, but lots of people are not aware of it.


90 posted on 01/23/2012 5:26:55 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: greeneyes

So, what is the Delphi Technique?


91 posted on 01/23/2012 5:29:08 PM PST by Eva
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To: Eva

THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE

How to achieve a workable consensus within time limits

by Lynn Stuter

The Delphi Technique was originally conceived as a way to obtain the opinion of experts without necessarily bringing them together face to face. In Educating for the New World Order by Bev Eakman, the reader finds reference upon reference for the need to preserve the illusion that there is “Lay, or community, participation in the decision­making process), while in fact lay citizens are being squeezed out.”

A specialized use of this technique was developed for teachers, the “Alinsky Method” (ibid., p. 123). The setting or group is, however, immaterial the point is that people in groups tend to share a certain knowledge base and display certain identifiable characteristics (known as group dynamics). This allows for a special application of a basic technique. The “change agent” or “facilitator” goes through the motions of acting as an organizer, getting each person in the target group to elicit expression of their concerns about a program, project, or policy in question. The facilitator listens attentively, forms “task forces,” “urges everyone to make lists,” and so on. While she is doing this, the facilitator learns something about each member of the target group. He/she identifies the “leaders,” the “loud mouths,” as well as those who frequently turn sides during the argument ­ the “weak or non­committal.”

Suddenly, the amiable facilitator becomes “devil’s advocate.” He/she dons his professional agitator hat. Using the “divide and conquer” technique, he/she manipulates one group opinion against the other. This is accomplished by manipulating those who are out of step to appear “ridiculous, unknowledgeable, inarticulate, or dogmatic.” He/she wants certain members of the group to become angry, thereby forcing tensions to accelerate. The facilitator is well trained in psychological manipulation. S/He is able to predict the reactions of each group member. Individuals in opposition to the policy or program will be shut out of the group.

The method works. It is very effective with parents, teachers, school children, and any community group. The “targets” rarely, if ever, know that they are being manipulated. If they do suspect this is happening, they do not know how to end the process. The desired result is for group polarization, and for the facilitator to become accepted as a member of the group and group process. He/she will then throw the desired idea on the table and ask for opinions during discussion. Very soon his/her associates from the divided group begin to adopt the idea as if it were their own, and pressure the entire group to accept the proposition.

——end snippet-—

http://www.seanet.com/~barkonwd/school/DELPHI.HTM

it is incidious


92 posted on 01/23/2012 5:37:56 PM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: All

The Delphi Technique — How to Disrupt It

Ground rules for disrupting the consensus process (Delphi Technique) — when facilitators want to steer a group in a specific direction.

1) Always Be Charming. Smile, be pleasant, be courteous, moderate your voice so as not to come across as belligerent or aggressive.

2) Stay Focused. If at all possible, write your question down to help you stay focused. Facilitators, when asked questions they don’t want to answer, often digress from the issue raised and try to work the conversation around to where they can make the individual asking the question look foolish, feel foolish, appear belligerent or aggressive. The goal is to put the one asking the question on the defensive. Do not fall for this tactic. Always be charming, thus deflecting any insinuation, innuendo, etc, that may be thrown at you in their attempt to put you on the defensive, but bring them back to the question you asked. If they rephrase your question into an accusatory statement (a favorite tactic) simply state, “that is not what I stated, what I asked was… (repeat your question).” Stay focused on your question.

3) Be Persistent. If putting you on the defensive doesn’t work, facilitators often resort to long drawn out dissertations on some off-the-wall and usually unrelated, or vaguely related, subject that drags on for several minutes – during which time the crowd or group usually loses focus on the question asked (which is the intent). Let them finish with their dissertation/expose, then nicely, with focus and persistence, state, “but you didn’t answer my question. My question was… (repeat your question).”

Remember…

always be charming,

stay focused, and

be persistent.

Never, under any circumstance, become angry. Anger directed at the facilitator will immediately make the facilitator “the victim.” This defeats the purpose which is to make you the victim. The goal of the facilitator is to make those they are facilitating like them, alienating anyone who might pose a threat to the realization of their agenda. [People with fixed belief systems, who know what they believe and stand on what they believe, are obvious threats.] If the participant becomes the victim, the facilitator loses face and favor with the crowd. This is why crowds are broken up into groups of seven or eight, why objections are written on cards, not voiced aloud where they are open to public discussion and public debate. It’s called crowd control. It is always good to have someone else, or two or three others who know the Delphi Technique dispersed through the crowd; who, when the facilitator digresses from the question, will stand up and say nicely, “but you didn’t answer that lady’s/gentleman’s question.” The facilitator, even if suspecting you are together, certainly will not want to alienate the crowd by making that accusation. Sometimes it only takes one occurrence of this type for the crowd to figure out what’s going on, sometimes it takes more than one.

If you have an organized group, meet before the meeting to strategize. Everyone should know their part. Meet after the meeting to analyze what went right, what went wrong and why, and what needs to happen the next time around. Never meet during the meeting. One of the favorite tactics of the facilitator, if the meeting is not going the way he/she wants, if he/she is meeting measurable resistance, is to call a recess. During the recess, the facilitator and his/her “spotters” (people who wander the room during the course of the meeting, watching the crowd) watch the crowd to see who congregates where, especially those who have offered measurable resistance. If the “resistors” congregate in one place, a “spotter” will usually gravitate to that group to “join in the conversation” and will report back to the facilitator. When the meeting resumes, the facilitator will steer clear of those who are “resistors.” Do not congregate. Hang loose and work the crowd. Move to where the facilitator or “spotters” are, listen to what they have to say, but do not gravitate to where another member of your team is.

This strategy also works in a face to face, one on one, meeting with anyone who has been trained in how to use the Delphi Technique.

http://www.learn-usa.com/transformation_process/acf002.htm

the Delphi Technique is considered unethical and manipulative.

the question is whether we can catch the moderators doing it.


93 posted on 01/23/2012 5:41:29 PM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Eva

So, what is the Delphi Technique?

See the link below. The TV shows have to modify it a little, but it’s a way to structure their coverage to manipulate/convince the audience under the guise of analysis etc.

http://www.vlrc.org/articles/110.html


94 posted on 01/23/2012 5:42:10 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: Eva
Exposing the Delphi Technique in Public Meetings.mov
95 posted on 01/23/2012 5:43:00 PM PST by PhilDragoo (Hussein: Islamo-Commie from Kenya)
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To: Future Useless Eater

Couple things are obvious:
When Newt started to ignore Mitt and attack the liberals in the media and Obama’s administration, he soared.
When Santorum started to attack Newt, he tanked.

Hmmm. Do I spot a trend. People want LIBERALS ATTACKED PERIOD.


96 posted on 01/23/2012 5:46:20 PM PST by C. Edmund Wright
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To: longtermmemmory

Oh, I was trying to listen to a video about this, yesterday, the title was group manipulation. The woman was going to give instructions on how to deal with it and avoid being manipulated. I was very interested, but I couldn’t get the rest of the video to download.

I see this method being used by the left, all the time. As the woman was describing it, I was thinking about the OWS protests. She was saying that young people are particularly vulnerable. It kind of explains why hear such inane answers from the protesters about what they are protesting. They don’t know.


97 posted on 01/23/2012 5:49:16 PM PST by Eva
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To: Ulysse

Is it me, or does Calista look like the chick in the movie “Mars Attacks” who is an alien who rolls into the White House and is very mechanical....I think she does.


98 posted on 01/23/2012 5:51:22 PM PST by Texas Songwriter (Ia)
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To: Mount Athos
Fill-in-the-Blank: I am eager to vote for Mitt Romney because ____________________"

And after he lost Iowa and got pasted in South Carolina "he is the most electable" is no longer a valid answer...

99 posted on 01/23/2012 5:59:15 PM PST by Haiku Guy (As soon as Romney / Is not "inevitable" / He drops like a stone)
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To: Texas Songwriter
Is it me, or does Calista look like the chick in the movie “Mars Attacks” who is an alien who rolls into the White House and is very mechanical....I think she does.

People always used to say that Laura Bush was lifeless and plastic, the same way they do now about Calista Gingrich...

But after three long years of Michelle Obama, what American wouldn't chew off his own arm to have Laura Bush back.

100 posted on 01/23/2012 6:05:23 PM PST by Haiku Guy (As soon as Romney / Is not "inevitable" / He drops like a stone)
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