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Ron Paul Panic Seizes Iowa Establishment
Politico ^ | 12/20/11 4:30 AM EST | By JONATHAN MARTIN and ALEXANDER BURNS

Posted on 12/20/2011 6:23:02 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP

In spin rooms, bar rooms and online forums, the what-to-do-about-Paul conversation has become pervasive as polls show him at or near the top here just weeks before the January 3rd vote.

Paul poses an existential threat to the state’s cherished kick-off status, say these Republicans, because he has little chance to win the GOP nomination and would offer the best evidence yet that the caucuses reward candidates who are unrepresentative of the broader party.

“It would make the caucuses mostly irrelevant if not entirely irrelevant,” said Becky Beach, a longtime Iowa Republican who helped Presidents Bush 41 and Bush 43 here. “It would have a very damaging effect because I don’t think he could be elected president and both Iowa and national Republicans wouldn’t think he represents the will of voters.”

What especially worries Iowa Republican regulars is the possibility that Paul could win here on January 3rd with the help of Democrats and independents who change their registration to support the libertarian-leaning Texas congressman but then don’t support the GOP nominee next November.

“I don’t think any candidate perverting the process in that fashion helps [the caucuses] in any way,” said Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, adding that he didn’t know if that’s necessarily how Paul would win.

While there’s no evidence of an organized effort, public polling shows that Paul’s lead is built in large part with the support of non-Republicans – and few party veterans think such voters would stick with the GOP in November.

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
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To: no dems
We'll find out soon enough, won't we? If Paul knows Iowa is the only state where he can have any success, why would he do this?

I am amazed by the amount of support he has and some of them are very good people and not kooks.

51 posted on 12/20/2011 7:29:46 AM PST by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Burkean Buckleyite
Anybody who panics the RINO Establishment can’t be all bad.

ROFL How true!
52 posted on 12/20/2011 7:31:41 AM PST by algernonpj (He who pays the piper . . .)
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To: mac_truck
Gringrich is being dragged down by the weight of his own baggage, nothing else.

Yup. I never understood why what a politician SAYS when they want your vote has more weight with some than what they have DONE.
53 posted on 12/20/2011 7:35:00 AM PST by algernonpj (He who pays the piper . . .)
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To: Beagle8U
You would need about an hour to attend and vote. Our caucus starts at 7:00; and we aim have votes counted by 8:00.
90% of the people leave after 8:00. There is other party business that happens after 8:00; but very few will stay for that stuff; they should, but they don't.

Pay for transportation? I doubt it, as caucus sites are highly local on a neighborhood level.
Some of that might go on, but most people are traveling short distances. In my area 4 years ago I could have walked.
But I'm sure if someone supports a candidate; they would offer to drive others there; especially elderly folks. No different than getting people to the polls in November.

Now at the straw polls, yes that did on. Candidates bussed people in from all over the state, the straw poll was held at one location.

There are no parties on caucus night, again that was as straw poll thing where candidates spent a lot of money on that stuff.

The straw poll is a big outdoor party in August held on the campus of Iowa State. Buses, bands, food; weird looking political type people, etc.
It is big, flashy and sexy and the media loves it.
But the straw poll doesn't count for anything. It is only a fund raiser the party puts on. It is not an official vote in any way. Most people here in Iowa don't view it as serious thing anyway.

You are mixing together 2 totally separate things.

The caucuses are boring things. We print our own signs at home and pass the hat around to collect funds to pay for church or school rentals. It is not a big flashy thing at all.

There are probably some folks that cannot participate in the caucus due to work schedules. I haven't heard that as a major complaint before, but it would be factor for some.

Bottom line is the caucus are nothing like the straw polls. The straw poll doesn't count for anything. It is only a fund raiser the party puts on. It is not an official vote in any way. Most people here in Iowa don't view it as serious thing anyway.

54 posted on 12/20/2011 7:35:48 AM PST by HereInTheHeartland (I love how the FR spellchecker doesn't recognize the word "Obama")
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Chill Psycho.

Paul doing anything means squat. He never did, does not, nor ever will get close to any nomination. He is a total fruit loop, a reject, a polished turd.

him getting any respectful number of votes in IA reflects on IA voters, not on his imaginary ascendancy.

55 posted on 12/20/2011 7:35:52 AM PST by going hot (Happiness is a momma deuce)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Do you think that there is any point at which the “establishment” will conclude that the “Ron Paul Movement” is a real paradigm shift in the country? How many states will he have to win to convince the “establishment”?

My answer is: No number of states won will convince the “establishment” because they are so presuppositionally committed to the idea that that “Ron Paul can’t win” that they will never come to any other conclusion. A conclusion can never rise higher than its presupposition.


56 posted on 12/20/2011 7:46:05 AM PST by TIElniff (Autonomy is the guise of every graceless heart.)
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To: Theodore R.

I didn’t say the voters can’t be trusted. I said they are acting like they did in the last election, dumb. Dumb gave us Obama.


57 posted on 12/20/2011 7:48:02 AM PST by LuvFreeRepublic
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Yeah that 1.6 million deal with Freddy Mac and Fannie May was just for being a historian! You are a fool if you believe that. Newt is unelectable and the democrats will destroy him. Heck, they already did him in once when they drove him from the speakership!

The Paulites in Iowa are playing within the rules, if you establishment types don't like the rules and are getting beat at your own game of politics then just change the rules before the next election. Don't whine because your scatterbrained candidate destroyed his own organization early on and hasn't found a way to rebuild it.

58 posted on 12/20/2011 7:48:02 AM PST by Jay Redhawk
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To: going hot
All of Paul's recent gains are based entirely on bogus propaganda. I know that. When the real caucuses start, the real numbers will show something entirely different. But there is still much damage done to Gingrich from all of this.

The MSM is flexing it's muscles in manipulating Public opinion. Which in itself is alarming, especially by the number of people buying into the lies and propaganda.

59 posted on 12/20/2011 7:55:54 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: HereInTheHeartland
Even the Iowa caucus isn't a official vote, no delegate is tied to that and the real delegates are chosen later at the state convention.

Many reports have counties in Iowa with more registered voters than voting age population.

From what I read the caucus voting takes an average of two hours. Not alot of people have that long to screw around voting.

Even open primaries aren't as much of a joke as a caucus.

60 posted on 12/20/2011 7:58:42 AM PST by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Jay Redhawk
I have a different perspective on this, and that is that if Paul wins Iowa then maybe that will cause a decent Republican to enter the race. That way we will not be stuck with a loose canon and crook like Newt!

Precisely. Paul is hardly an ideal candidate, but he's just the man to shake things up.

61 posted on 12/20/2011 8:03:15 AM PST by Burkean Buckleyite
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To: Jay Redhawk
I happen to be an independent Conservative. You can label someone else in your usually arrogant and ignorant fashion. You also sound like a closet Paultard idiot.

I happened to be there when Newt was in office, and I worked for the Reagan campaign, when Newt was very much a part of the “outsider” camp.

Save you stereotypical labels for someone else, because you won't “educate” me one bit about something I lived through as well as, played a strong role in making happen.

62 posted on 12/20/2011 8:03:45 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: Burkean Buckleyite

Ron Paul is a true sign that what we have is not working. People want real, effective strong change. They do not want a Demoplican or a Republicrat.

Libertarian political and economic policies are very attractive to many who want to work on the US and who see that past policies have had their day.


63 posted on 12/20/2011 8:06:26 AM PST by Chickensoup (In the 20th century 200 million people were killed by their own governments.)
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To: Burkean Buckleyite

You might tone your rhetoric down a bit n00b. There are several Troll hunting groups on this forum that eat Trolls for lunch, and you are headed that way rather fast.


64 posted on 12/20/2011 8:08:26 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

In Madison’s Notes of the Federal Convention, it surprised me how often our Constitution’s architects expressed their concern about establishing a system where the voting masses were allowed to have too much power, due to the ignorance of most, and their ability to be easily swayed by the agenda of those desiring power.

The “Factions”, which ultimately became the Parties, and for most of our history merely two Parties, was also a grave concern to some Founders. The whole election process was seen as a weak link by some.

And then, of course, there were the Anti-Federalists . . . . . They lost.


65 posted on 12/20/2011 8:12:04 AM PST by dagogo redux (A whiff of primitive spirits in the air, harbingers of an impending descent into the feral.)
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To: Chickensoup
Ron Paul is a true sign that what we have is not working.

True. Normally, the Establishment's dismissal of him as a fringe crank would stick, but that doesn't work when the Establishment is thoroughly discredited.

66 posted on 12/20/2011 8:14:15 AM PST by Burkean Buckleyite
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To: Beagle8U

Correct.


67 posted on 12/20/2011 8:17:23 AM PST by stormer
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Yeah we all know that being an “outsider” is how you get to be Speaker of the House. If you really were there then maybe you can’t see the problem because you have become part of it.

Let us just wait and see if you can make Newt happen, bigshot.


68 posted on 12/20/2011 8:18:26 AM PST by Jay Redhawk
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To: no dems

“BTW, when was the last time any non-incumbent, Republican who won Iowa, got the nomination?”

GWB - 2000
before that Dole in 1996.


69 posted on 12/20/2011 8:19:29 AM PST by CJ Wolf (OMG - Obama Must Go!)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
But there is still much damage done to Gingrich from all of this.

The media always plays their enemy (us)against each other.

This cycle started with Palin, then went to Bachmann, Then Perry, then Cain, now Gingrich is in the crosshairs.

Those that fall for it cheer them on unless it is their candidate, then it is unfair.

As long as we play by their rules, we should not be surprised at the results.

70 posted on 12/20/2011 8:36:56 AM PST by going hot (Happiness is a momma deuce)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

“Paul poses an existential threat to the state’s cherished kick-off status”

That kick-off status should also be on the table. The kick off should rotate to different regions of the nation. This process with Iowa and New Hampshire is designed to give momentum to leftist establishment GOP candidates, by using voting open to both parties.


71 posted on 12/20/2011 8:50:08 AM PST by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office)
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To: Jay Redhawk

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2815463/posts

Notice post #5 while you are at it, arrogant Troll.


72 posted on 12/20/2011 8:53:53 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: DesertRhino

The Paul Spam monkies are swarming Iowa, in hopes that this will get him started in all the other states where Paul is regarded as a Cult Kook. Iowa is easy for them manipulate due to it’s lax rules.


73 posted on 12/20/2011 8:58:21 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

You need to relax a bit there psycho. I read your “arrogant” remarks regarding Rick Perry on another thread where you questioned his intellect. You are started to come off a lot like Karl “Tokyo” Rove. You spout an interesting line, but essentially your full of crap.


74 posted on 12/20/2011 9:00:19 AM PST by Jay Redhawk
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To: Jay Redhawk

Coming from you, I will take that as a compliment.

Jealous Trolls like you, always have trouble with the truth.


75 posted on 12/20/2011 9:05:20 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Then tell me, was Newt your first choice in this race? For many I think that he is just the default candidate because none of the others have even a remote chance of winning. I know Paul won’t win the nomination, I preferred Cain, and I could never support Romney. For now Rick Perry is my candidate until someone better, maybe Paul Ryan, jumps into the race. But if you want Newt to win the nomination I think you will be disappointed. He fails the trust issue, deserved or not, and that is the biggest problem the voters have with government today.


76 posted on 12/20/2011 9:21:29 AM PST by Jay Redhawk
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To: Jay Redhawk

Always trying to educate people aren’t you? It’s like you are the smartest fool in the room or something.

It’s you who don’t know squat about the candidates, and yet you are informing me of all this wisdom you claim to have about absolutely nothing.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2815463/posts


77 posted on 12/20/2011 9:54:30 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

It appears you could use a little education, however, I am just expressing my opinion. To educate you on the subject would require a book. So did you support Newt before December 2, or are you just kissing ass?


78 posted on 12/20/2011 10:11:55 AM PST by Jay Redhawk
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To: RIRed
Paul winning Iowa would deliver the nomination to Romney.

I have a different take. Romney is outspending everyone, what, 35 to 1, I heard, and he still can't win Iowa? He'll probably go on to win NH, but if he doesn't make a strong showing there, he's still going to look bad. Then it's on to SC and Florida. If Romney can't buy Iowa, he for darn sure can't buy SC and Florida. And Paul sure won't.

79 posted on 12/20/2011 10:26:58 AM PST by Proudcongal
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To: Proudcongal

Fair point on Romney. He has trouble cracking 30 no matter how much he spends for good reason. He probably wins NH and has trouble in SC and FL under just about any circumstance for the very reason you give.

That said, I think a Paul win in Iowa is the one thing that will freak out enough people to get them to hold their noses and vote Romney out of shear panic. In that sense, a Paul win in Iowa would be better for Romney than if Romney won Iowa.


80 posted on 12/20/2011 11:40:26 AM PST by RIRed
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