OK "IF(and I mean BIG IF)" Herman Cain pulls out wins in IA, NH and SC...

09 Nov 2011 | US Navy Vet

[US Navy Vet]

...then WHAT will the GOP Establishment do next?Any Predictions?

[madinmadtown]

Since none of them have come out and defended Cain in any substantive way, it seems that doing the honorable thing would be inconsistent.

[CainConservative]

AND don't need liberal filled New Hampshire aka Romney's backyard.

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus RCP Average

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Cain Romney Paul Gingrich Bachmann Perry Santorum Huntsman Spread

RCP Average 10/19 - 11/3 -- 25.5 20.5 10.8 9.5 7.5 7.5 3.7 1.5 Cain +5.0

IA + SC = Nomination because that MOMENTUM will lead to a Florida win right after!

GAME. SET. MATCH. CAIN!

[goat granny]

Sending him a check for 50 dollars today....

[wolfman23601]

The latest poll was taken from 10/27 - 11/7 and the values only add up to 70%. Obviously they didn’t poll leaners, which came directly off of Cain and Gingrich’s numbers. I don’t know that Cain has a 10 point lead, but the internals on Rasmussen are much stronger: one day sample (true snapshot), larger sample, a higher percentage of results (values add up to 89%). I don’t know the historical accuracy of Clemson’s polls, but it looks like garbage on the surface.

[BenKenobi]

Someone needs to post this and the other poll with Cain +15 in Ohio and +10 in Iowa according to PPP. Then I can ping them.

[dmz]

I don’t know if anyone listened to the last caller on Rush today........but it is disturbing.

<><><><>

Really? You’re not gonna tell us?

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Polls usually show a one week delay in regards to scandal or headlines. In a recent national match against Obama, Cain had a 4 point lead in the poll one month ago, but now trails Obama by 48% to 37%. So, it’s the general public that the GOP and Cain have to worry most about.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups

[CainConservative]

Great idea, Ben : )

Oh, wait... I thought the Rombots, Rove, and MSNBC said Cain was toast?

[BenKenobi]

Clemson university? Yeah, nothing biased there...

I can’t see how Cain is +6 in FL and down in SC? Makes no sense to me whatsoever. Massive outlier.

[BenKenobi]

Nonsense.

This far out polls vs Obama are meaningless. The only polls of any substance are the polls between the GOP candidates.

It is significant that Obama still can’t break 50 percent. That’s bad, bad news for him.

[wolfman23601]

I wouldn’t worry about head to head matchups with Zero yet. Whoever wins the nomination, no matter who it is, will get a huge bump with the media coverage. Then there will be the conventions and the debates... not to mention we don’t know what the enthusiasm gap will be. Head to head matchups are completely worthless until at least September 2012. Romney may be the strongest now on the hypotheticals, but I don’t imagine he’ll stir up much enthusiasm.

[TheOldLady]

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[CainConservative]

Wrong, loser..

It’s Iowa + South Carolina = Nomination

And that’s ALL that matters for Cain!

SC since 1980 has determined our nominee and also led to a Florida win. Face it, if Romney loses those early three states (IA, SC, FL) it’s curtains in Rombot Land.

[CainConservative]

Wrong, loser..

It’s Iowa + South Carolina = Nomination

And that’s ALL that matters for Cain!

SC since 1980 has determined our nominee and also led to a Florida win. Face it, if Romney loses those early three states (IA, SC, FL) it’s curtains in Rombot Land.

[Quicksilver]

Your scenario is certainly possible. I know from past primaries how quickly it can go from boom to bust for any given candidate. There are too many factors to accurately predict how it will go.

[CainConservative]

Scott Rasmussen came on Fox News the last hour to tout Florida with Cain UP 6-11 over Willard and Newt -- and said "Cain has lost NO support."

[PoloSec]

At that point they will either fold or lose everything they got on a losing hand, I prefer they lose, and we get some new players in the game.

[Quicksilver]

SC and FL demographics are very different. Using your reasoning one could say that the FL poll is an outlier. An outlier is not determinable until there are other polls published covering the same general time period and same locale.

[over3Owithabrain]

God Bless the Florida GOP voters that were polled.

Shame on the women nationally who have withdrew support of Cain with ZERO evidence of wrongdoing and proven to be shady accusers.

If one supports another GOP candidate, fine. But to bail on Cain over this blatant and evil hit job is pathetic

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

LOL! Ok, so now I am a “loser”, well I have been called worse, but give me an example, of how you know this. And start with my Military service record and professional Oil industry career. I would really like to know myself.

But I digress, in regards the polls, look back at 2008, when the “sure winner” of the nomination was Rudy Giuliani at this stage of the campaign. It was a “Sure” thing Giuliani would take it early, especially in the South, including Florida. We all know how that one turned out, unless you recently graduated High School and were not much into elections.

[wolfman23601]

SC is a lot blacker and more Christian than Florida. One would think that would play in Cain’s favor. My biggest concern about Florida is Rubio endorsing Romney at the last minute. I hope that doesn’t happen, but my gut tells me it will.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

We will see how it all plays out in the coming weeks. These things develop over time, not instant messaging.

People have to talk about it first, and there sure is MUCH to talk about isn’t there? We are up to 5 so far. Will there be more?

[Quicksilver]

Right. Also, a shift or a trend usually shows in a national poll before it shows in state polls. What I’m seeing is that Cain has mostly lost support among women and independents. He hasn’t lost much support among his base, which is why he still leads in most primary polls.

[BenKenobi]

The poll doesn’t include leaners. So they are artificially suppressing the Cain numbers. Neat trick.

[BenKenobi]

Yes, their demographics are different, except for the fact that EVERY OTHER Poll has had Cain stronger in SC than FL.

[Quicksilver]

I would guess that most SC blacks are Democrat, so that probably wouldn’t help or hurt Cain. I don’t recall, is SC an open primary? If so, that will be a factor.

Yeah, Rubio could be the one to tip the nomination, much like Crist did for McCain.

[BenKenobi]

Every other poll has had Cain stronger in SC than in FL.

If the same company polls both using the same method, Cain comes out stronger in SC than FL.

This company is using a different sampling method, which has produced an outlier. We’d expect, if they polled Florida to see Cain down 10.

[okie01]

IA, NH and SC, he would have it nearly wrapped up at that point, wouldn’t he?

If they were all winner-take-all, as in 2008, maybe.

But they now allocate delegates proportional to the vote. Meaning that these three states probably won't settle anything.

[wolfman23601]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1955044/posts

It is an open primary.

[Quicksilver]

The one thing that makes the Clemson SC poll hard to compare is it was taken over 12 days, beginning before Politico first published their garbage. The poll is essentially an average of voter sentiment during the media circus.

[DannyTN]

The RINOS will consult with the other democrats about how to take Cain down.

[TWhiteBear]

’ Scott Rasmussen came on Fox News the last hour to tout Florida with Cain UP 6-11 over Willard and Newt — and said “Cain has lost NO support.”

At this point, Mr. Romney has to win all three, IA, NH and SC.
If he is unable to win all three, then there is little chance for him to defeat Mr. Obama.
Mr. Cain only needs one win and a strong second to go to the next level.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

I would also say that there is a strong possibility that this election, there well be a heavy turnout in the primaries, which will be increased in numbers by Independents and Moderates.

Also remember that primary straw polls are seldom a good way to gage actual voter support. They tend to be very partisan and locally influenced by strong activist participation.

[so_real]

Simple ... in order to stay relevant, the GOP must either prove themselves the "vehicle to reach success" or prove themselves the "vehicle to avoid defeat". These are similar concepts but dramatically different points of view.

By cinching those primaries, Herman Cain proves the GOP golden children (Romney and Perry) are not the vehicles toward success. As such the GOP will switch tactics to the more expensive and less timely effort of proving it remains the vehicle away from defeat.

To do so, the GOP must ensure the RINO repeated mantra "Cain can't win" becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Cain must lose in order for the GOP to market itself to the people from a "you could have won if you'd jumped on our bandwagon" perspective.

First, Romney is shuffled back in the deck. A two time loser does not get the opportunity to embarrass the party a third time. But he won't be discarded as he enjoys wealth and popularity among the 20% republican elitist crowd.

Second, a generous amount of campaign contributions to buy advertising for the Libertarian party will appear in the Libertarian candidate's coffers. The libertarians must stick together and defiantly support their candidate, having almost no probability of winning, lest they vote against Obama by supporting Cain. A media promotion to keep the libertarians fired up must be funded.

Third, quietly encourage a third party run. It has to be a candidate the GOP elites don't care about. We've already seen this effort at work during this primary season as lesser known, more conservative than RINO, candidates have been pursued to join in the fray (subtle encouragement to Ryan, Palin, Rubio, Christie, Jindal, etc.) A third party candidate splits the vote, so the more "Tea Party" the candidate, the better. Don't expect this tactic to be put to bed just because Cain wins the primary. It will be used even more aggressively, just more subtly.

And fourth, the character assassination attempts against Cain will continue and intensify. Throwing all the spaghetti you can find against the wall to see what will stick is a time-test tactic. It is successful and Borks good men.

All this will happen to be sure. What saddens me is that country club Republicans will be behind half of it, while the Obama administration happily give them quiet assistance using the resources we tax payers provide. What overjoys me, is that this election --- I truly believe the effort will fail. We the People are more awake than we've been since the rise of the hippie generation. This is the time for confident action.

[Gaffer]

If he’s on the ballot in the Georgia Primary, I will vote for him.

[Quicksilver]

I missed post 54 earlier. I totally agree with your analysis. The Clemson poll isn’t directly comparable to any of the other polls. The next few SC polls will tell the tale.

[farmguy]

No Problem. Some ugly old white blonde will show up saying Cain wanted to make snuff films with her.

[wbill]

Rubio could be the one to tip the nomination

Can Rubio run for VP? All "Show me the BC" nonsense aside, it seems like I read on FR where he doesn't meet the Natural Born Citizen requirements, due to his parentage.

I'm not trying to stir the pot, I'm just asking.

[Quicksilver]

I think that Rubio can run for VP, but the debate still rages on.

[wolfman23601]

Rubio is not eligible. Then again, neither is Zero. So technically, no he can’t run, but what is the constitution?

[JLS]

I am bright enough to understand. Perhaps your reading comprehension is not very good or you would have what my parenthetical remark meant.