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The Republicans to control the Senate after 2012 Congressional Elections
InTrade ^

Posted on 07/31/2011 1:48:08 PM PDT by astuddis

84.9% chance.

(Excerpt) Read more at intrade.com ...


TOPICS: Government
KEYWORDS: 2012
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Obama at 54% for re-election. This number will surely go down.
1 posted on 07/31/2011 1:48:10 PM PDT by astuddis
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To: astuddis

i don’t believe that number.

must be the bradley effect.


2 posted on 07/31/2011 1:49:44 PM PDT by ken21 (dem + rino progressives -- destroying america for 150 years.)
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To: astuddis

Pecentage that America survives after 2012?


3 posted on 07/31/2011 1:52:38 PM PDT by The Iceman Cometh (I'm called a 'teabagger'? Well, get over here liberal and I'll show you what that means.)
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To: astuddis

It would be pretty hard for the Pubes to blow the Senate at this point, but they’ll manage it.


4 posted on 07/31/2011 1:53:08 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: astuddis
Numbers are reversed, the news media will report this for what it is, Obummer gave the republicans a good old fashion ass-kicking again.
5 posted on 07/31/2011 1:53:50 PM PDT by org.whodat (What does the Republican party stand for////??? absolutely nothing.)
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To: astuddis

Thats the odds of a coin flip. Trust the trend hes headin’ down.


6 posted on 07/31/2011 1:54:01 PM PDT by SIRTRIS
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To: astuddis

If this nation reelects the idiot in charge then this nation deserves to go down the drain. Simple as that. If citizens are this stinking stupid, then we deserve it. If people do not get out and fight to destroy these creatures, then we deserve it. People have to rally around the Flag and do what is right. Quit thinking how many pay checks can I cram in my pocket for myself and think about this nation as a whole. Sadly, way too many people look for those FREE pay checks and do not work for it. Simply, the we are now The Home of Free Stuff.


7 posted on 07/31/2011 1:55:49 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (EVERY knee shall bow and EVERY mouth shall say: Jesus Christ IS LORD!!!!)
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To: astuddis

Don’t get excited about conservatives ‘controlling the Senate’!

‘Control of the Senate’ takes 60 out of 100 votes. 41 is all that’s required to filibuster. Beyond that, there’s more than 6 liberal RINOs in there already. For conservatives to gain control of the Senate, there would have to be a gain of over 16 seats. That’s not likely to happen. For the foreseeable future, it’s going to be a cat fight.


8 posted on 07/31/2011 1:56:50 PM PDT by CharlyFord (t)
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To: astuddis

Too many RINOs in the mainstream Repub party to have that kind of success. Need more tea party faithful to oust the rinos AND demons.


9 posted on 07/31/2011 2:01:54 PM PDT by Bobby_Taxpayer (Don't tread on us...or you'll pay the price in the next election.)
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To: astuddis

Too many RINOs in the mainstream Repub party to have that kind of success. Need more tea party faithful to oust the rinos AND demons.


10 posted on 07/31/2011 2:02:04 PM PDT by Bobby_Taxpayer (Don't tread on us...or you'll pay the price in the next election.)
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To: CharlyFord
Nailed it, just what in the hell are republicans going to run on///???? Smaller Government, less spending, doing away with Obummer care. None of that crap will pass the laugh test anymore.
11 posted on 07/31/2011 2:02:23 PM PDT by org.whodat (What does the Republican party stand for////??? absolutely nothing.)
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To: The Iceman Cometh

By their calculations, I’d take that to be 46%.


12 posted on 07/31/2011 2:02:40 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: FReepers
November 2006 .....8.5 Trillion Democrats win over Congress
January 2007 ........8.7 Trillion Democrats in charge of Congress
November 2007 .....9 Trillion
January 2008 .........9.2 Trillion
November 2008 ....10.5 Trillion Democrats & Obama in Control
January 2009 .........10.6 Trillion
January 2010 .........12.3 Trillion
November 2010 .....13.7 Trillion Republicans win over US House
January 2011 .........14 Trillion Republicans control US House
July 2011 ...............14.3 Trillion

Support Free Republic

13 posted on 07/31/2011 2:05:18 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (America! The wolves are here! What will you do?)
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To: The Iceman Cometh
Pecentage that America survives after 2012?

Heck, it's already not the America I once knew.

14 posted on 07/31/2011 2:06:06 PM PDT by bgill
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To: astuddis

Not likely. The delusion is strong.


15 posted on 07/31/2011 2:09:09 PM PDT by anniegetyourgun
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To: CharlyFord

Conservatives need to be creative with the RINO and moderate Dems. Reminds me of a historical story about a Chinese emperor during the Manchu era who tasked his sons to find a solution to house refugees flooding the Imperial capital fleeing famine. Problem was the Imperial gov cannot build temporary homes to house them because the Treasury did not have enough money after fighting a series of wars. One prince opens his home to take in 150 refugees and pressured the court magisterates (equivalent to barons and lords). He got no results because many of them were uncomfortable letting strangers live in their family compounds. He got no results. Another prince tried to obtain donations from the magistrates by pressuring them to sell off their family treasured heirlooms and items. He got no results. Finally one prince produced to the emperor enough silver to build temporary homes for the refugees. He got the money from the magistrates that the other princes’ failed. The emperor was impressed and he asked the successful prince how he did it. The prince simply explained that he told the magistrates that if they loaned the money to the Imperial Treasury to build the refugee shelters and as soon as the Imperial Treasury funding is restored the magistrates will get their money back plus interest. All the princes had power but one prince understood how to combine his power with the self interest of the magistrates to achieve the task while the other princes just used power/prestige and ran into opposition.


16 posted on 07/31/2011 2:11:34 PM PDT by Fee
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To: astuddis

In 2012, 23 Dems are up for re-election, but only 10 Reps.

In 2014, 20 Dems are up for re-election, but only 13 Reps.

If we take the Senate in 2012, we should keep it in 2014.


17 posted on 07/31/2011 2:12:23 PM PDT by Atlantan
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To: astuddis

i wonder what percentage of the senate will be tea party members...

gop will be doa soon...

t


18 posted on 07/31/2011 2:12:32 PM PDT by teeman8r (armageddon won't be pretty, but it's not like it's the end of the world.)
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To: astuddis

But the new senators have got to be Tea Party types. No more Lugars!

The resillience of Zero’s numbers is worrisome, but the last election was a kind of “Black Swan” event. The traditional criteria that govern elections will probably reassert themselves in 2012. The economy really is terrible, and Zero’s speechifying is getting old (not that it was ever that great, and I for one have never understood the race-baiting demogogue’s appeal).

He’s overexposed himself, which is deadly for someone who is essentially a celebrity. Also, his essentially vicious, petulant, mendacious and demagogic nature has been on national TV a little too often lately. I think he’s on his way out if the economy stays on the same trajectory. The “thrill” is gone among the young, and there are no more bin Laden’s to kill. Last cycle was the Tea Party’s first go round, and we’re only getting stronger. There are opportunities here, but we need to press our advantages.


19 posted on 07/31/2011 2:12:58 PM PDT by ishmac (Lady Thatcher:"There are no permanent defeats in politics because there are no permanent victories.")
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To: org.whodat
Obummer gave the republicans a good old fashion ass-kicking again.

0 wanted 1.2 trillion in new taxes and got zero. So of course the 1 note choir of Democrat activists pretending to be Conservative here on Free Republic claim 0 the big winner.

Don't you ever bother to actually try thinking before you post?

20 posted on 07/31/2011 2:13:26 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving politicians more tax money is like giving addicts free drugs to cure their addiction)
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To: ozzymandus

Pointless, anyway—After their performance in the debt debacle, they’ll lose the House.


21 posted on 07/31/2011 2:15:17 PM PDT by Arm_Bears (I'll have what the gentleman on the floor is drinking.)
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To: ozzymandus

It would be pretty hard for the Pubes to blow the Senate at this point, but they’ll manage it.

I anybody can, the Republicans can


22 posted on 07/31/2011 2:15:49 PM PDT by sawmill trash
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To: MNJohnnie
Do what, the budget base line has been moved nearly three trillion dollars, do you know what the debt will be in ten years. Damn, he will get his taxes, that was only a gambit, a bargaining chip, he wants the commission and the talking point of the republicans refusing to lower the debt with reasonable taxes, that will be be one of his reelection talking points. Dang!!!!!! Bush tax cuts were extended, not repealed.
23 posted on 07/31/2011 2:20:57 PM PDT by org.whodat (What does the Republican party stand for////??? absolutely nothing.)
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To: CharlyFord

Control of the Senate’ takes 60 out of 100 votes. 41 is all that’s required to filibuster


Even when the (R)s control the Senate the idiots run to the front of the line and screw everything up, for example: Mcain and his gang of 14.

I think the only way to get significant change is for the (R)s to have about 85 to 100 Senators or every Rino be replaced with a Tea Party candidate.

The latter seems more possible but not very probable because too many fools go to the polls at election time that haven’t a frigging clue what is going on.


24 posted on 07/31/2011 2:21:16 PM PDT by gnawbone (Bureaucrats piss me off and I should know, I am one.)
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To: MNJohnnie
Did you see that dem trio live the other evening ? It looked like an undertaker firm viewing a body . That is the face of the dem party. It will take day's to clear the old man stench from the studio. I will say tho that the dems are lucky to be running against the repulicants. Any reasonably competent party could crush them.them.
25 posted on 07/31/2011 2:24:19 PM PDT by fantom (,)
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To: astuddis
I am not sure Mitch 'give Obama autonomy over debt ceiling increases' McConnell Senate would be much of an improvement as Senate Majority Leader.
26 posted on 07/31/2011 2:26:15 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: astuddis
Obama may well lose to the Republican candidate in 2012 but unless we can elect a preponderance of conservative members in both houses of congress, even a 'President Palin' (my choice) will have a tough time advancing TEA party goals. The RINOs will undercut her and the leftmedia will attack her like never before. The media has already jettisoned it's objectivity and come out of the liberal closet so they won't even have to pretend to respect the office, they'll just attack and oppose anything Palin tries to accomplish. Fortunately, she can take the flack and stay focused on the goal of reducing government. Unfortunately, with a boatload of RINOs in congress plus the aggressively hostile Democrats, President Palin will face tough odds on accomplishing what's needed to rescue America from the fate of socialist nations such as Greece. It may be impossible. In that case, the U.S. voter will have gotten what they asked for with their unquestioned acceptance of feel-good rhetoric (and deep debt) from leftist Democrats and not a few RINOs. Too late, then.
27 posted on 07/31/2011 2:26:25 PM PDT by Jim Scott ( "Game On!" - Sarah Palin)
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To: org.whodat
Spare us the posturing. A quick glance at your posting history shows that you are a one note wonder, trashing what EVER the GOP does.

You may not be a Democrat in name, you are a Democrat in your actions.

28 posted on 07/31/2011 2:26:47 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving politicians more tax money is like giving addicts free drugs to cure their addiction)
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To: org.whodat
just what in the hell are republicans going to run on///????

Yeah. That $100 Billion in cuts they promised last election got kicked down the road into 2012.

Open checkbook Pubbies are no better than Open checkbook Dems. Both are spending the Nation into massive debt.
29 posted on 07/31/2011 2:30:19 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: fantom

Which makes who we nominate in 2012 crucial. If we go with the “Old Boy’s club” mentality yet again, we deserve to lose.


30 posted on 07/31/2011 2:31:03 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving politicians more tax money is like giving addicts free drugs to cure their addiction)
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To: MNJohnnie

Some people here seem to take a pleasure in bashing the Speaker, all republicans, etc. They just sound like whining two year olds with loud mouths and constant grievances,,,,or democratic sabateurs. Some have been so crude and rude, that us old posters rarely come here anymore


31 posted on 07/31/2011 2:32:30 PM PDT by cajungirl
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To: RetiredArmy
People have to rally around the Flag and do what is right.

We will rally 'round the Bonnie Flag, we will rally once again. Shout, shout the battle cry of freedom.

32 posted on 07/31/2011 2:32:46 PM PDT by cayuga (The next Crusade will be a war of annihilation.)
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To: MNJohnnie

Some people here seem to take a pleasure in bashing the Speaker, all republicans, etc. They just sound like whining two year olds with loud mouths and constant grievances,,,,or democratic sabateurs. Some have been so crude and rude, that us old posters rarely come here anymore


33 posted on 07/31/2011 2:32:46 PM PDT by cajungirl
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To: MNJohnnie
Just because you are wrong is no reason to start whinnying. If you want to support the rino wing of the GOP that is fine with me. What do you stand for anyway??? Spending 5 dollars less than the democraps, maybe that number should be 2.50 less than the democraps.
34 posted on 07/31/2011 2:33:57 PM PDT by org.whodat (What does the Republican party stand for////??? absolutely nothing.)
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To: astuddis

Get ready to mount and enforce a Capitol lockout during the lame duck session.


35 posted on 07/31/2011 2:34:48 PM PDT by Let's Roll (Save the world's best healthcare - REPEAL, DEFUND Obamacare!)
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To: ishmac

we need more Jim Demint types.


36 posted on 07/31/2011 2:34:57 PM PDT by freedom1st
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To: gnawbone
Even when the (R)s control the Senate the idiots run to the front of the line and screw everything up, for example: Mcain and his gang of 14.

What we are seeing is the fear in both RINO and RATS alike. They see the writing on the wall that Tea Party people will begin entering Congress. Don't for a minute believe that they are not worried. This is why we see options for "super congress" type committee's staffed with the "senior" members of Congress. Even if the multitude of new reps are Tea Party of Moderate RAT (?!?) the long term goal of safe career pols is to inculcate themselves above the common pol.

Watch for more of this in the future. RATS and RINO's care only about their survival, regardless of who occupies the whitehouse. They will gladly trade the WH back and forth as long as they are safe.

The TPM scares the sh*t out of them and their back room, wheeling and dealing ways.

37 posted on 07/31/2011 2:35:11 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
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To: org.whodat
Spending 5 dollars less than the democraps

"Five dollars? Maybe I'll go to the movies.....by myself."

38 posted on 07/31/2011 2:35:11 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: cayuga

Those who saved their Confederate money will soon have the only paper money of any value.


39 posted on 07/31/2011 2:38:50 PM PDT by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: gnawbone
The latter seems more possible but not very probable because too many fools go to the polls at election time that haven’t a frigging clue what is going on. - gnawbone

“The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” - - - Sir Winston Churchill

Yep! There's a lot of agreement on the problem with ignorant voters.

40 posted on 07/31/2011 2:43:43 PM PDT by CharlyFord (t)
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To: ozzymandus

Oh they’ll blow it all right, but I really think that they don’t want to be in the majority, It’s a lot easier to be an inside the beltway loser than have any responsibility for anything, and they’ll still get invited to some of the best cocktail parties.


41 posted on 07/31/2011 2:45:46 PM PDT by mapmaker77
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To: astuddis

RACISM!


42 posted on 07/31/2011 2:49:27 PM PDT by Dallas59 (President Robert Gibbs 2009-2011)
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To: freedom1st

Indiana’s state treasurer, Richard Mourdock, currently has a 2 PT edge over Lugar in the repub primary race. Mourdock is a solid conservative.


43 posted on 07/31/2011 2:58:44 PM PDT by ishmac (Lady Thatcher:"There are no permanent defeats in politics because there are no permanent victories.")
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To: freedom1st

Oops, forgot to post link: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2754541/posts


44 posted on 07/31/2011 3:02:07 PM PDT by ishmac (Lady Thatcher:"There are no permanent defeats in politics because there are no permanent victories.")
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To: ishmac
That sounds excellent. I spent some time in Indiana during my undergraduate days at Purdue. It would be great if Lugar was replaced with a conservative in the primary.
45 posted on 07/31/2011 3:10:56 PM PDT by freedom1st
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To: ozzymandus

Let’s hope it makes a difference this time. No more rain forest parks, or whatever it was, for Iowa.


46 posted on 07/31/2011 3:20:15 PM PDT by Pining_4_TX ( The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else. ~)
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To: astuddis

Why as a Conservative should I care if they retake the Senate knowing full well that if the Republicans do retake the Senate that the RINO in McCain and Gramham will simply undermine any Conservative bills coming out of the House.


47 posted on 07/31/2011 3:34:36 PM PDT by Trueblackman (Posting on FR since 1998 and 100% teleprompter free post as well.)
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To: astuddis

A much, much better estimate (and much harder to ever come by)would be the likelihood that CONSERVATIVES would control the Senate or the House. Now, that number would mean something.


48 posted on 07/31/2011 4:01:27 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: MNJohnnie; org.whodat
The Palin-bashing anti-conservative 'org.whodat' definately has the characteristics of a Democrat troll. He even uses fuzzy math to promote the Democrats.
49 posted on 07/31/2011 4:10:07 PM PDT by death2tyrants
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To: astuddis

No matter how many Republicans comprise a “majority” in any future Senate, the Democrats will still get their way. Taxby Chambliss and his RINO buddies will stab Conservatives in the back.


50 posted on 07/31/2011 4:40:01 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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