Posted on 05/06/2011 10:14:56 AM PDT by Chi-townChief
It’s the oldest truism in politics: You can’t beat something with nothing. For 2012, the Democrats have something: Barack Obama. The Republicans, so far, have nothing.
This could change. But who is going to change it? And when? It may seem like the Republicans have lots of time until the 2012 campaign, but they do not.
Obama is already running for re-election and already raising money. Lots of money. For the GOP, the sands are rushing through the hourglass.
Item: The Quinnipiac poll finds “Still No Clear Leader in GOP Field.” Pollster Peter Brown says: “It is difficult to get a handle on the 2012 Republican race. Many contenders are not well-known, and many who are known are not liked, making their candidacies problematic.”
The killing of Osama bin Laden by the Obama administration shows what a difference a death can make. Not to world security — that is still dicey. But the Republican field has been fried like an egg.
Item: “The day after a one-day Washington Post poll found Obama getting a nine-point bounce in his approval rating, a new two-day New York Times/CBS survey shows the president’s numbers increasing 11 points, from 46 percent last month to 57 percent now,” says First Read. “The increase in Mr. Obama’s ratings came largely from Republicans and independents.”
Item: Bruce Keough, the 2008 director of Mitt Romney’s New Hampshire campaign, says he won’t rejoin in 2012 because, according to a Mother Jones interview, “he’s no longer sure what Romney stands for.” Keough says: “I don’t think the voters are looking for somebody who’s going to be recasting himself.”
No matter how well Republicans did as a party in the last congressional elections, their presidential field was shallow in 2008 — and it is shallow today.
In 2008, the Republican order of finish based on delegates to the nominating convention was: John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter. Rudy Giuliani ran in the primaries but ended up with no delegates. The rest of the field of Alan Keyes, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, etc., withdrew before the primaries.
Take a gander at those names and tell me how many you can see in the Oval Office running the country today? Two? One? None?
Here is the Republican field for 2012 based on the highly useful Real Clear Politics average of leading polls. The potential candidates are, in order: Huckabee, Romney, Donald Trump, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Paul, Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels and Rick Santorum. Others may enter. Huckabee is polling at 16.6 percent; Romney, 16.5; Trump, 16.3, and Palin, 10.1. The rest are in single digits.
How many would make you comfortable if they were sitting in the Oval Office, making decisions about the economy, health care, education, the environment and war and peace?
If you came up with any names at all, how confident are you that any one of them could defeat Obama?
And now you see the problem for the Republicans. It’s not the billion dollars Obama is expected to raise, it’s not that he has gone through a presidential general election campaign while none of the Republicans have (except Palin), it’s not his oratorical skills and mastery of the issues, it’s the image he has created based upon his record of a competent, cool, skilled, experienced, capable leader.
Has he done things that have disappointed Democrats and enraged Republicans? Of course; especially his perilous policy of continuing the war in Afghanistan and his launching of a confused and confusing war in Libya.
But Obama also rescued the economy, saved the auto industry, expanded health care to millions of children, passed health-care reform for everybody, repealed the ban on gays serving openly in the military and eased restrictions on stem-cell research.
And oh, yeah, he found and killed Osama bin Laden.
Does this mean we don’t need an election campaign in 2012 and that Obama has already won?
Nope. He has vulnerabilities. He is going to have to defend a four-year record. And the economy could tank. Even further. The Republicans could beat this guy. All they have to do is find someone to do it.
They have to find a candidate who is smart, gutsy, nimble, creative, credible, determined and capable of raising vast sums of money.
Give me a minute, and I’ll try to come up with a name.
these folks are delusional.
They are trying to scare away potential challengers with this talk.
BTW, Trump hasn’t been “taken down”, he is simply laying low....
Anyone feeling depressed?
Trump isn’t done, and this author is dreaming. According to Simon, Obama has a ‘mastery of the issues.’ Ha. He has utterly failed in every aspect of this presidency, and when he speaks, the public opinion usually goes in the opposite direction. The left is dreaming. The GOP has an advantage going into the next election unless the economy dramatically improves. The electoral map right now is definitely in our favor.
IMO things look a heck of a lot better for 0bama now than they did one week ago. If the economy continues to slowly add jobs and gas prices stablize, he may be very difficult to defeat 18 months from now.
“For 2012, the Democrats have something: Barack Obama.”
This is EXACTLY their major weakness.
“Still No Clear Leader in GOP Field.”
Still nobody the republican people, the voters, want.
Republicans should take a line from Reagan’s playbook. “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Not me. Why be depressed? The debate last night was great and Obummer is still in all types of trouble on the economy and foreign policy. His polling is a disaster for an incumbent rolling into a tough reelection. He is totally beatable. Simon is once again trying to prop up this loser and it is falling on deaf ears.
Think back to 1980, as bad as things were for Carter - and I would argue that the economic pain in the fall of 1980 was probably much worse than the pain is today, not to mention the hostage saga - Carter still led Reagan by 3 to 5-points less than a week before election day. If Reagan wouldn't have crushed Carter in that last debate, Carter probably wins reelection. It's tough to beat incumbent presidents, that's why it's done so infrequently.
At the end of the day, Presidential elections are still contests between two people. Reagan beat Carter because he was optimistic and hopeful, wildly experienced and one of the best communicators, ever. Clinton beat Bush because of Perot, but also because he had a lot of experience,more than 10-years as governor, and was one of the best communicators, ever. That's what it's going to take to beat Obama, and anyone who thinks otherwise is whistling past the graveyard.
But as long as Obama has throngs of naked-emperor-praisers in the media, they'll see to it that many will remain too blind to recognize that reality.
/////still in all types of trouble on the economy and foreign policy. His polling is a disaster\\\\\
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
Disaster for the GOP, yes..........
I suspect that Trump is a pretty good strategist. If he's got any 'goods' on Dumbo, he will release them when he knows it will do the most harm. It almost makes me feel sorry for the guy with the big ears.
The debate last night showed who the voters want overwhelmingly. Cain.
Hate to say I agree but what can ya do?? Played out that way for Clinton too.
I would reply if only the dry heaving would cease...
Baloney. If you are going to take head to head polls of a massive field when we don’t have a candidate yet, that is your silliness. Half of those people are totally unknown as demonstrated by Cain last night and the other are not even running. Those polls never show anything that pans out. Where was Reagan at this point in ‘80? It looked like a Baker or Bush year.
Look at the only poll that matters now. Obummers Approve/Disprove. One point bump for killing OBL? How in the world is that strong. Don’t listen to the media spin. Look at what Obummer is actually doing. He is focusing on collage kids, blacks and the rest of his base he should have locked up by now. The WH is in panic mode as far as I see.
Someone needs to tell this genius that NO incumbant president has EVER won reelection when the unemployment rate is above 8%. Zero, zip, nada.
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