Skip to comments.Murkowski camp growing more confident of victory[1000s of mil./abs. ballots yet to be counted]
Posted on 11/13/2010 11:12:40 PM PST by SeattleBruce
Incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski is closing in on the total number of votes cast for Joe Miller on Election Day. While it's believed the lion's share of votes for write-in candidates will go to Murkowski -- a suspicion the ongoing count has thus far proved -- the ballots must be looked at and assessed to know for sure. But with 84 percent of the more than 98,000 write-in ballots cast on election night already evaluated, Murkowski appears to be within striking distance of a win.
But -- and there are always "buts" -- there are still thousands other votes yet to be tallied (at least 8,800 absentee votes plus more to be tallied from overseas) which could skew in Miller's favor, and if the difference between Miller and Murkowski is 1,246 or fewer votes -- 0.5 percent of all votes cast -- the election outcome will be close enough to trigger a state-funded recount. Not to mention Miller has launched a series of legal questions about whether less-than-perfect votes -- those with misspellings -- should count. He says no, Murkwoski says yes, and the court fight could become much higher stakes if it is challenged ballots on which the election will be decided. Also, more recently Miller has lodged allegations of possible fraud, and he's seeking voter registries to verify that the number of votes from certain areas didn't exceed the number of legally registered voters and to assess whether voters filled out their own ballots.
(Excerpt) Read more at alaskadispatch.com ...
Murk's camp says it's over, but there are thousands of absentee ballots and perhaps 10,000+ military/overseas ballots (does anyone know if they count those all at once?)
“JUNEAU, Alaska GOP nominee Joe Miller won’t spend a lot of time, energy and effort fighting over ballots in Alaska’s still-undecided Senate race if the math doesn’t add up in his favor, he said Saturday.
But Miller said he won’t make any announcements about the write-in campaign of incumbent Lisa Murkowski until after absentee ballots come in next week from military voters, a constituency that the Army veteran believes could go heavily for him.
“I think to call the race, to say that their vote doesn’t matter, to forget about counting their votes, I think that’s an inappropriate approach,” he said Saturday.”
Can someone, anyone tell me whether they’ve been counting military ballots all along and there are just a few thousand late ones to count, or if they count all 10,000+ (there were 13,000+ in 2008) of them all at once.
I’ve seen no definitive word on this from any source.
That was my question when I went to your thread. I would think that out of 10-14K absentee ballots 80% would go to Miller.
If you voted absentee, did you have any way to vote for Murkowski?
Murkowski campaign manager Kevin Sweeney said he likes the results of the count but doesn’t plan on declaring victory until at least next week. “I think it’s fair to Alaskan voters for every vote to be counted before one side claims victory,” Sweeney said.
All absentee ballots had to be postmarked by Election Day but have until Nov. 17 to arrive from overseas.
The more I read about this, it appears that around 8,000 absentee ballots have yet to be counted - with more arriving next week through Wed. I would think that most of the late arriving ballots are military and that many of them will go for Miller, an army veteran.
That said - if percentages hold, murk will be up by say 1,500 uncontested write-ins, to Miller’s current vote count - meaning if he bests her in the remaining absentees - lets just say there are 10,000 total of them, by next Wed., then the race would be essentially tied with uncontested ballots.
Let’s say it’s 6000 to 4000 Miller - then he’s up by 500, and if it’s 7000 to 3000 then he’d be up by say 2,500 votes.
Then he’d just need to win 75% of his court challenged votes (let’s say there are around 10,000 of them) to still win this race.
OK, it seems a long shot - but if the uphold AK election law, it could still happen. If they don’t, which we’ve all suspected they wouldn’t perhaps, then he’d lose.
Too bad it’s this close for the Liar Lisa.
“If you voted absentee, did you have any way to vote for Murkowski?”
I think you could write Murk in, but check this out:
This is going to sound crazy, but Id like to hear from someone in the military who voted in Alaska to see what the ballot looked like. My brother, stationed last in Alaska, but now serving in Iraq, voted by Alaska military ballot. He told me he voted for Murkowski. When I joked about spelling her name right, he said that he didnt have to write it out at all. He said it was printed on the ballot. I asked questions every which way to make sure he knew what he was talking about - that it was the general election and not the primary, etc. He was sure. Hes a doctor in the army medical corps, so hes not a stupid guy. I mean, aside from the Murkowski vote, and all.
“Election officials are scheduled to finish counting the final 15,000 write-in ballots Sunday but that most likely wont be the end of the road for either Miller or Murkowski.”
I think this is good news, with the last count Miller gained over 2,000 votes, if he gains another 2,000 with this chunk and with potentially thousands of military votes still to be counted next week until Wed. 11/17’s military/overseas ballot deadline - this race will still be decided by the contested votes.
Question for many of us - are they counting the military ballots right along - if many of these last 15,000 are military, Miller could gain more than the 2,000 he gained among the initial batch of absentees.
Of course the idiot propagandists at the Seattle Times/New York Slimes want to declare this for murky, but even her own camp doesn’t dare disenfranchise the military voters overtly.
IT AINT OVER FOLKS.
I’m not an Alaskan, but would not think so, unless space was provided on the absentee ballots for a write in. I am not even sure Murkowski had started her campaign when the absentee ballots were mailed to the military.
One thing I do know: It is high time that we guarantee that absentee ballots are mailed to the armed forces and counted in a timely manner. This crap first came to my attention in the 2000 election, was still there in the 2004 and 2008 elections, and, amazingly, has still not been rectified. This should be an addition to the TEA Party agendae.
Yes, it is crazy to think that anyone in the military voted for Murkowski over Miller.
“This should be an addition to the TEA Party agenda.”
They haven’t counted any absentee ballots as of yet, I believe the 19th is the date they are due to start that count.
Alaska must have one of the dumbest populations on the face of this earth.
Murkowski simply buys her support by promising to bring home as much pork as possible to those who support her. Bribery is one of the oldest political tools of mankind.
what is the current tally?
Were it up to me i don’t think i would allow Lisa Murkowski to caucus with the Republicans anymore, not after what she did. She is clearly a corrupt power hungry politicians that give no value to fair and honest elections.
Let her caucus with the Democrats or be without a caucus, as far as I’m concerned she is a democrat, and the last thing we need is more corrupt power hungry politicians like Lisa Murkowski who don’t honor the result of the primary after having fairly partaken in the same acting under our name.
She is unworthy of even the lowest of republican bodies the Senate Republicans.
I hope the Pork is cut off by the new congress. Too funny if the Alaskans voting for their Pork Queen find themselves out in the cold. I am for an absolute government shutdown. No increase in the debt and a debt reduction of a severe nature.
>>Alaska must have one of the dumbest populations on the face of this earth.<<
CA and DE keep sending more RATs to make matters worse. They win hands down.
LIZARDA, QUEEN OF PORKS, WINS THE SENATE SEAT IN AK.
1. Lizarda Porky Murk will go back to DC.
2. She will find out that “earmark ban/moratorium” has been approved (we pray!).
3. She will return back to Alaska. She will tell her Alaskan porky-lovers this: “NO MORE PORKY PORKY! FEDS ARE CUTTING BUDGETS! BLAME THE TEA PARTY WINNERS!”
The Establishment Republicans (both politicians and constituents) in Alaska SUCK BIG TIME!
Whatever happens, Murky must be stripped of any seniority position in the Republican Caucus of the Senate!
The NRSC is devoted to .... MITT ROMNEY.
Cornyn, Romney have screwed the entire GOP twice,
in 2008 and 2010 for spoiler, backstabber, Mitt Rommey.
Need an insider in the post office (s)to make sure they show up on time...........would hate it if a few bags of votes where left on the side until after the deadline and then “found”.
crazy that a vet would vote for satans daughter!!!
Just like photos of Obama this year,pictures of the power mad harridan with other GOP members will be used in campaign commercials during the primaries of 2012 to defeat them.
She had better be totally avoided in the Senate if the Republican Senators know what's good for them.
That's a high number...I'll bet it isn't more than 2,000. Fact is, the troops do not vote in high numbers.
cut off your nose to spite your face...that makes sense..we need all the R’s...don’t you get it?
Not every Republican can be as “pure” as some people here want them to be..
You have got to be kidding....
Murkowski winning makes me sick to my stomach. I’d love to have a handwriting expert take a look at these ballots to determine how many ballots were written by the same person(s).
What is the hold up on counting the absentee ballots?
Like you I can’t find anything as to when the UOCAVA ballots are to be counted. I originally thought it would be on Nov. 18 but I now think they maybe lumped in and being counted with the other absentee ballots. You would think there would be some info out there as to the process and as to how many UOCAVA ballots were mailed out.
Who knows but we are witnessing a historical election regardless of the winner.
2010 General Election Absentee and Questioned Ballot Count Schedule
- Tuesday, 11/9 - Early votes from Election Day and Absentee ballots
- Friday, 11/12 - Questioned ballots
- Monday, 11/15 - Absentee and/or questioned ballots
- Tuesday, 11/16 - Absentee and/or questioned ballots
- Wednesday, 11/17 - Special Advance (overseas) ballots
“They havent counted any absentee ballots as of yet, I believe the 19th is the date they are due to start that count.”
I’m not sure that they haven’t counted any absentees yet - Miller had only 79,000+ votes to 92K for ‘write-in’, and now Miller has over 87,000 votes and write-in has 98,000 - so where did those extra votes come from? Miller himself said on Saturday that he thought there were 8,000 more absentee ballots to go, and since the overseas/military deadline is Wed. I wouldn’t doubt is several thousand more of the 10,000+ military ballots come in (how many is an important question, as I think they’ll help Miller.)
If Alaska elects Murkowski, I think their hero status is out the window.
Election officials are scheduled to finish counting the final 15,000 write-in ballots Sunday but that most likely wont be the end of the road for either Miller or Murkowski.
I was in error here, having read a lot of articles about this race - they are referring to the final ‘write-in’ ballots and not the 8,000 (plus how many thousand more military and overseas ballots coming in by Wed.) that Joe Miller referred to yesterday in articles.
I still think Miller has a chance to basically tie, or be ahead comparing uncontested write-ins for murky with his votes.
Then the question goes to the courts with how they’ll decide the contested votes.
In my view, depending on how many votes are still to come in - thousands still? - Miller will have to succeed in roughly 75% of his contested votes to win.
Why then, if the candidates are within thousands of CONTESTED votes and basically tied in UNCONTESTED votes, is the media and the murky camp acting like this is over?
As yourself that question.
So Calex, according to Deport’s schedule posted, they have counted some absentees, but best we know, and according to what Joe Miller himself said just yesterday, there are about 8,000 additional ballots, plus many late arriving military/overseas ballots to arrive between now and Wed.
I would think that many of those 8,000 are overseas/military votes (later arriving is my rationale for saying that) and that will favor Miller, as will votes coming in this week.
If Miller gains 6000 to 4000 advantage, or 7000 to 3000 advantage on these military votes (and many here think that may be realistic) then he will be up by 1,000 to 3,000 votes or so as murky’s uncontested percentage across 98,565 ‘write-in’ ballots is currently 89.58%.
98,565 * 89.58% = 88,295 and Miller currently has 87,517 votes. That means 778 UNCONTESTED votes will separate the two if murky’s percentage holds steady. (84% of ‘write-ins’ have already been counted - so likely murky’s uncontested vote percentage will hold steady.)
Deport has reported that in 2008:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2626026/posts?page=44#44 (this is no dems quoting deport).
“13,766 Overseas Military Ballots were transmitted in 2008.”
Question then is, how many troops voted that year, and how many this year.
In any case, based on my analysis in post #34 above, Joe Miller only needs to make up about 778 uncontested votes to be tied with Murk in uncontested votes.
I think that for sure is do-able and Miller may have a small 1,000 or 2,000 vote advantage with about 8,000 votes being contested and counted across the 98,565 write-in votes there currently are.
“Alaska must have one of the dumbest populations on the face of this earth.”
Where would that put Washington State (my home state) and KalIforneeeya? LOL
“what is the current tally?”
Here’s a lot of the data you’ll need in raw form.
And you may want to check out post #34 in this string for where I think this is - I think about 778 uncontested votes separate the two candidates with about 10,000+ (how many more military ballots will come in by Wed.?) absentee ballots to be counted. Joe Miller himself said 8,000 absentees to be counted, and with the last batch Miller gained 2,000 votes...I think Miller will have a small lead in contested votes - perhaps 1,000 or 2,000 and there will be 8,000 or so contested but counted write-in votes.
So if Miller won 75% of those contested but counted votes - he wins.
Truly it’s up to the courts to uphold clearly written AK election law.
“Murkowski and state officials are on the same side”
Wow, ya think?!?
IF the Alaska Military members got a different ballot than the rest of the voters—this could end up in court for a long time.
I think that ALL ballots must be the same.
If anyone can find a military ballot that did NOT get cast—which shows this kind of discrepancy—this could doom Lisa & the Alaska Elections officials.
They are playing fast & loose with the rules as it is.
Pretty stupid, as well as disgusting.
With the internet- a copy of an unused military ballot for Alaska could go viral in seconds.
Im not an Alaskan, but would not think so, unless space was provided on the absentee ballots for a write in. I am not even sure Murkowski had started her campaign when the absentee ballots were mailed to the military.”
What PARTY designation would be applied to Lisa?
She had lost the Republican Primary & the Independent party rejected her. IF she is not shown as a write in candidate on the military ballots, the SAME as the rest of the ballots, then that surely should be a violation of election law.
UOCAVA ballots 2008 [state by state info]:
Absentee ballot count from evening of 11/9 saying some 12,000 left to be counted. The question I have do they include the UOCAVA ballots that have been received? Who knows.
There is a certain window of time for absentee ballots to be received back in the state.
The bulk of the absentee ballots referred to here are Military ballots—which MAY have been sent late.
Some states sent them VERY late. Such behavior should be greeted with severe penalties, lots of $$$$ fined & PRISON TIME, & NOT in some fancy Federal place with all the niceties.
Actually, this schedule was changed up...that isn’t true any longer except for the Military Absentees.
I am not even sure Murkowski had started her campaign when the absentee ballots were mailed to the military.
She hadn’t officially filed the letter of intent or whatever it is called with the state when the UOCAVA ballots were mailed. I would think the UOCAVA ballot would have a write-in option but I am not sure, speculation on my part.
Not sure what the actual schedule is, just posting what the AK Elections Division has on it’s website.
The actual schedule you posted...Alaska Election Officials changed it and didn’t even give Joe Miller the proper notice.
“She is unworthy of even the lowest of republican bodies the Senate Republicans.”
Unfortunately, she’s more in line with half of the current GOP leadership than we’d care to know...they proved that by not kicking her off committees when she ran to oppose the legitimate Republican primary victor, after promising she would respect the results (she lied.)
“Too funny if the Alaskans voting for their Pork Queen find themselves out in the cold. I am for an absolute government shutdown. No increase in the debt and a debt reduction of a severe nature.”
Nicely constructed, and fits in nicely with your screen name...:)
“The Establishment Republicans (both politicians and constituents) in Alaska SUCK BIG TIME!”
This is true throughout the nation, but they are certainly proving it there, hmm?
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