Posted on 11/17/2009 4:41:14 AM PST by IbJensen
Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.
While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January, current job losses still average more than the per month rate of 150,000 during the last recession.
Also, remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession.
So we can expect that job losses will continue until the end of 2010 at the earliest. In other words, if you are unemployed and looking for work and just waiting for the economy to turn the corner, you had better hunker down. All the economic numbers suggest this will take a while. The jobs just are not coming back.
There's really just one hope for our leaders to turn things around: a bold prescription that increases the fiscal stimulus with another round of labor-intensive, shovel-ready infrastructure projects, helps fiscally strapped state and local governments and provides a temporary tax credit to the private sector to hire more workers. Helping the unemployed just by extending unemployment benefits is necessary not sufficient; it leads to persistent unemployment rather than job creation.
The long-term picture for workers and families is even worse than current job loss numbers alone would suggest. Now as a way of sharing the pain, many firms are telling their workers to cut hours, take furloughs and accept lower wages. Specifically, that fall in hours worked is equivalent to another 3 million full time jobs lost on top of the 7.5 million jobs formally lost.
This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.
Other measures tell the same ugly story: The average length of unemployment is at an all time high; the ratio of job applicants to vacancies is 6 to 1; initial claims are down but continued claims are very high and now millions of unemployed are resorting to the exceptional extended unemployment benefits programs and are staying in them longer.
Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.
The weakness in labor markets and the sharp fall in labor income ensure a weak recovery of private consumption and an anemic recovery of the economy, and increases the risk of a double dip recession.
As a result of these terribly weak labor markets, we can expect weak recovery of consumption and economic growth; larger budget deficits; greater delinquencies in residential and commercial real estate and greater fall in home and commercial real estate prices; greater losses for banks and financial institutions on residential and commercial real estate mortgages, and in credit cards, auto loans and student loans and thus a greater rate of failures of banks; and greater protectionist pressures.
The damage will be extensive and severe unless bold policy action is undertaken now.
And that bold action would be for the lousy administration to eliminate and slash the central government beginning with the Departments of Education, EPA, HHS, Congressional Staffs, fringe benefits for the Congress, Foreign Aid, etc. etc.
The citzenry needs to understand that the central government does not create jobs other than to bloat the number of government employees.
Hehehehe.....STILL calling it a recession?
Never mentions the economic recovery act,
Cut the alphabet soup of federal programs and slash taxes by 75% across the board to bring jobs back to America.
Hmmm, and the democrats and a few stupid RINOS want to leagalize the illegal workers that are here making sure that there are fewer jobs and higher unemployment.
Promises
So I wonder how the sheeple think that Obama thing is working out for them now? “Stupid is stupid does”.
How about we just blow up factories and businesses? It will have the same effect and be a lot cheaper.
1200 illegal alien janitors fired (not deported) in Minneapolis a few days ago were making $13 an hour and more. They claim those are jobs Americans won’t do.
Agreed on your comment #1, but our importing, bipartisan business leaders will not allow cuts in funding for their wives’ and daughters’ “women’s jobs.” So let’s look forward to the defaults. Become more self-sufficient every month, and start hobbies of making useful things.
Just wait. If socialized medicine passes and they tack on a +5% excise tax on small businesses along with an elimination of the Bush tax cuts next year you’re going to see business shed jobs like a Collie in the spring. I really don’t even want to go into amnesty but you can bet your bottom dollar that at least half of these day laborers will go on the dole after finding out they can make more money by NOT working. I’m convinced we are headed for some very hard times that have been made significantly worse by the man child’s socialist fantasies.
It’s not a recession. This nation is suffering from a cabal of communists who are deliberately causing the ruin of America!
They are subservient, though. IMO, having looked into their eyes on many occasions, it’s been more about pride, childishness and hatred than money all along.
The worst is yet to come, and our f’ing government is going to make our money worthless.
Why would the unemployed be affected by further job losses? Is that like getting deader?
Wow. I missed that story.
So the moron Daily News recommends spending your way out of debt. Even the Chinese know we’re embarked on a folly so dangerous that it will hurt them as a byproduct of destroying ourselves.
Nouriel Roubini: Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening.My, my. What a gloomy Gus. You need to lighten up pal.
Woo-hoo! Let's Merengue.
The story.
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/11/09/immigrants-fired/
1200 janitors has to be just about all of them in a city the size of Minneapolis.
Hunker down, Hell! Let's get rid of those idiots in Washington that are the reason the jobs aren't there - starting with the usurper that hates this Country! Put them behind bars and out of work!
Hmmm, and the democrats and a few stupid RINOS want to leagalize the illegal workers that are here making sure that there are fewer jobs and higher unemployment.
Where we live that is happening right in front of me. And the local Democrat Rep rationalizes it.
I wonder now if American citizens are beginning to understand that the Democrat push for amnesty is about getting votes, pure unadulterated vote farming? It's certainly not about concern for the American taxpayer
It's looking like American voters are the stupidest, or most naive, people on the planet.
The Left was wise when they worked to take over the schools and the media. Now we have a large population of uneducated and ill-informed people who think that the Left has the best ideas and is working to help the little guy.
I love when they say “jobs americans wont do”. Thats a lot of BS. I have a teenaged granddaughter (over 16) that couldnt find a part time job in a year. Everywhere she applied, wanted someone over 18. Ya know why? Because these places can be fussy now.
Next time you go shopping, check out who is working in the supermarkets, department stores, and stores like walmart. These used to be full of teens..now, they are all adults, who are out of work and had to take anything.
Another place kids were sure of finding a job was in fast foods..now, those seem to be, what looks like, all illegals.
Between the illegals here and the jobs they outsource to places like india (the computer industry seems to favor this), we are losing a ton of jobs here.
I dont know how we will ever recover.
I’d be quite content in a $13 per hour janitorial job. I don’t have a family to raise so the money would be OK and I don’t have any problem with that kind of work.
I live near Allentown, and ironically, this is one of the few regions where home prices have not dipped as much as the national average and unemployment is not as high as the national average.
I had the Billy Joel song on my Ipod and it seemed appropriate.
That's my take on it. Seems to me it's the employed that need to be hunkering down.
Yep. The plan of making the majority of Americans dependent on federal government is going well.
Metaphorically, it is quite appropriate.
Of course.
That will solve all our problems with our evil government.
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