Posted on 07/07/2006 12:45:38 PM PDT by NorthEasterner
Time will tell. And since I don't actually watch or listen to any of the local TV or news stations, I'm not repeating word for word what I hear. I live in the Philly suburbs and work in center city Philadelphia and I can tell you that I have yet to meet one African-American in the city who is at all impressed with Swann. He's run an abysmal campaign, his supposed solutions are just warmed over pap from people like Speaker Perzell who puts his foot in his mouth every time he opens it.
Ummm...well, given that you work in Center City, that is no surprise to me. Try going out to West Philadephia or North Philadelphia, and you will find a little different picture. (I live in North Philadelphia, unfortunately).
I don't think Swann has run an abysmal campaign by any stretch of the imagination. What I look for is whether the candidate is showing signs of growth, and I am very happy with Swann's progress. So what if he made a mistake on the ramifications of overturning Roe? I'm a freaking law student, and am not sure what would happen, cuz it would depend on the ruling.
At this point, I'd be surprised if Rendell doesn't easily win with 60% statewide. If he looks like he's in trouble, then there will be more pressure to get out the dead in Philly. If that happens, then Santorum is dead meat. As much as Rendell is loved in Philly, Santorum is loathed. And if the Senate race looks close, that in and of itself may be enough to generate high turnout here. Few politicians I can remember have generated this level of hatred in Philly. Some I know would crawl over glass just to vote him out.
Hopefully, the Pa. GOP will learn that it really doesn't pay to annoint your candidate. They figured after Mike Fisher's candidacy, anyone would look positively awesome. They were wrong.
They assumed by uniting early and annointing a candidate that Swann would benefit by not having to spend a lot during a primary. And, he'd be able to pile up a warchest to at least be competitive with Rendell. Instead, Swann is way behind in fundraising (and his response is to whine that Rendell is strong-arming people not to contribute.....welcome to the real world, Lynn) and is sinking in the polls, although I don't put a lot of stock in them. He's not particularly energizing the base, he hasn't been able to generate any real positive coverage or excitement among the base. His only hope at this point, and it's slim, would be to demolish Rendell in the debates and that's not going to happen.
He would have had a better shot had he been vetted by going through actual primaries. Yes, it costs money, but what it also does is allow you to test your message and to figure out the best way to get it across. Swann didn't even start putting out position statements until 6 months past the primary. He's still trying to get his feet under him on the campaign trail. That might have had a shot in 2010 but it doesn't stand a snowball's chance in you know where against Rendell. As much as I loathe the man (and have told him so to his face) and his positions, he is a veteran at campaigning.
Tell ya what. The day after election day, if I am right, we get together and you buy me a drink if Swann wins. I buy you a drink if Rendell wins. If Rendell wins with 60% or more, I'll buy you TWO drinks. Deal?
I'd offer two cheesesteaks, but one Rendell is enough in Philly.
I can tell you, from a front row seat, literally spitting distance from the capitol, Fast Eddie's minions are far less optimistic than you describe. Guess time will tell who is surprised.
Send him a "Rendell Burger" from The Spot.
Everything I've seen says it is santorum going down, where swann is competitive.
Usually, the blues pick up pitt and philly and the reds take the rest. If Swann can flip pitt to red, Rendell will need one big graveyard vote out of philly to win.
I think so too!! Rendell is SLEAZY.
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