Mexico election too close to call (exit poll released)

Reuters ^ | 7/2/06 | Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

[lauriehelds]

Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's presidential election is too close to call between a leftist anti-poverty campaigner and the conservative ruling party candidate locked in a tie, a respected exit poll said on Sunday.

The extremely close vote raised fears of a political crisis if any of the main candidates challenge the results and call street protests.

Pre-election polls had showed Felipe Calderon of the ruling party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, in a virtual tie. Exit polls from Mexico's two main television station and the El Universal newspaper said they could not declare a winner.

El Universal said the race was between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. Neither of the TV stations mentioned Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century.

The Federal Electoral Institute was expected to announce official results at around 11 p.m. If it is unable to call a winner, Mexico could face days or weeks of legal wrangling and protests similar to the fight that followed the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

[BunnySlippers]

It's strange in that a country close to the so-called "melting pot" of the US is so uniformly one race ... Mexicans. Oh yeah, it has people who are more Spanish and those more Indian ... but Mexico is absurdly composed of pretty much Mexicans.

[Reaganez]

No but I saw about a zillion guys that looked just like Johny Stockton.

[JohnnyZ]

bump - later

[Tigercap]

58.11% in

lead is 1.64%

[ChipShot]

and only 395,316

[ChipShot]

now 389,260 with 59.19% in.

[Tigercap]

59.28% in

lead is 1.59%

lead is around 188,000

[Tigercap]

sorry, i meant 388,000

[Reaganez]

There were some signifanct American Immigration into Mexico before 1860 but not much since.

At the time African-Americans had a hard time immigrating anywhere.

So don't see how that affects anything.

China is uniformly of one race.So is India. etc etc.

Rich countries, with the the exception of Japan, tend to be multi-racial because they attract immigrants.

Poor and Middle Income countries create emmigrants.

Unlike say Cuba and Brazil slavery in Mexico was banned before it got started so there was never a significant population of African slaves.

If African slaves managed to make it to shore off Cuban or Brazilian ships they would be granted unofficial asylum and could stay. That is why there are a few Afro-Mexicans.

[ChipShot]

382,482 with 60.34%.

Mexico may be wishing for an Electoral College when this is all done with.

[AdrianR]

One final Excel update. Current shares of 3-party vote, with adjustment for different reporting % in different Mexican states.

Calderon 0.405209525
Madrazo 0.214996872
Obrador 0.379793602

Adjusted lead for Calderon is now significantly more than the unadjusted one. Calderon may start increasing lead again as the results from his states come in.

[Ravi]

Obrador has made up about 60,000 votes in the last 10 percent. At that rate, he will still be about 150,000 votes short and Calderon would win.

[ThomasThomas]

I have been to Mexico zillions of times and have never seen a black person. Strange.

While I was in Mexico once, there was a Japanese tour group of around hundred people walking down the street around me. At one point everyone I could see was Japanese. What was even more surprising was most of the members of the group had two or more cameras with them. Mexico has many sites to attract tourist if they can get a less corrupt government. Keeping on the thread.

[Reaganez]

In Calderon states 57.48% of the precints have reported.

In Obrador states 62.56% of the precints have reported.

[ChipShot]

If it is that close, AMLO will never give up and may start calling for street protests. A recount for the enire country would be just incredible.

Think Florida 2000 throughout the country. Ouch.

[Liberty Valance]

+

[John Valentine]

China is uniformly of one race.So is India. etc etc.

Not a bit of it. India has at least three races, and China even more. You have a look at a northern Indian Hindi speaking aryan descendant, then take a look at a southern Indian, Malayalam or Tamil speaking dravidian descendant, and you won't be saying that India has only one race. Same with China. Compare a Han with a Tibetan - or either of those with a Uighuir, and you won't be going around saying China is a one-race country either.

[Reaganez]

There is no scientific defintion of race but I think you are confusing race with ethnicity.

By your definition Mexico has hundreds of races then.

Mexico is a multi-racial society. ;)

[Torie]

With 62% in, the projection based on the five regions (I can't seem to hack the state specific numbers anymore) is as follows:

Calderon         Dinosaur       Socialist
0.37832626	0.200936256	0.353623667

The percentages seem quite stable now. I am quite confident, although not absolutely confident, that Calderon will win. Over and out.

[BunnySlippers]

I hope you are right! Yeah!