Posted on 05/12/2005 12:17:30 PM PDT by Wallace T.
WESTERN EUROPE
It is likely Western Europe will slowly be Islamicized over the next two centuries, even in time the remoter areas like Norway, Ireland, and Portugal, as Muslim populations, through high birthrates and immigration, surpass the numbers of native Europeans. Only if the Muslims become more secular, in the manner of many Turkish Muslims, by several generations in Western Europe will that region avoid becoming Austro-stan, Belgo-stan, Holland-stan, etc. What might eventuate will be some sort of hybrid Euro-Middle Eastern culture, such as Albania and Bosnia have today. Both those nations, formerly purely European racially and at least nominally Christian, became Islamic under Turkish rule between the 15th and 19th Centuries, also absorbing their Turkish conquerors via intermarriage. That may be a model for Western Europe in the 21st and 22nd Centuries.
EASTERN EUROPE
Eastern Europe may remain ethnically intact, as their weak economies have drawn few immigrants. However, as long as a Communist worldview lingers on, as evidenced by still largely socialist economies, low birth rates, and widespread nostalgia for the "good old days" of the KGB and the Gulag, it is unlikely Russia, her former satellites, and the ex-Soviet republics will amount to a center of creativity or economic vigor.
THE USA AND THE "WHITE" COMMONWEALTH NATIONS
North America and Australia/New Zealand are most likely to be Brazilianized, with the former white majorities becoming minorities. Especially in the United States, increased intermarriage of lower status whites with lower status Hispanics, Southeast Asians, and blacks will create a large "mestizo/mulatto" (mixed race) population that may, by 2150 or so, become the largest single population group. (This will remain true even if Hispanic militants manage to detach the Southwestern states from the Union.) The upper and middle classes will remain mostly white, but with considerable admixture with Northeast Asians of second generation or longer residence. There will probably be minority white groups remaining, isolated from the general population by either religion (Mormons, conservative homeschooling evangelicals, "rad-trad" Catholics, and orthodox Jews (assuming the last group does not emigrate to Israel)) or by geography, especially in rural Canada and the northern tier of the U.S.
This may not be the best outcome for Western civilization and its long range future, but I believe it is the most probable one.
Assuming all trends hold for 200 years.
There will be a lot of wars and revolutions in the meantime. Maybe even another Hitler or Napoleon or Stalin. Oil will run out. Muslim birthrates are already declining. Some white birthrates are exploding. Christian evangelicals have having some success in Islamic countries and may explode if democracy takes hold...
Lifestyle, disease, poor hygiene, will change these demographics.
While I agree with some of your points, somehow your "research" creeps me out.
Wow! This is amazing! Who knew my parents were of a lower status OMG! Thanks for telling me. My boyfriend is white but I think I'll get on birth control so as to avert this unmentionable disaster.
I get from this the same old crap that white people are just plain bad and deserve to die.
If Western Civilization, if I "get the drift" of your analysis, means "white," then you are probably right. However, if you mean the legacy of Western civilization, the great threat to this legacy than birthrate is secularism. Because that effects not only the birthrate, but also the passing on of that legacy. Western civilization shouldn't be a "whites only" thing, but something whose influence should be felt worldwide, and to a certain extent, it has.
Except for traditionalist (Tridentine Rite) Catholics, who only number a few hundred in any given metropolitan area, I can't think of any whites who are having large families. Of whom do you speak?
I guess that makes me part of this group. My mother is the daughter of a Polish immigrant and a man whose family (if you take it furthest back) has been here since colonial times. My dad is from the Philippines.
Some social conservative Protestants have huge families too.
Mostly conservative Christians (all races) - Baptists, Mormons, etc. Utah is one of the fastest growing states due to native born Americans having so many children...
Wouldnt be the first time the Muslims/Arabs have wiped out races.....Egyptians, Babylonians/Chaldeans...The Persians still exist but are Muslim so i dont know if that counts.
Except for traditionalist (Tridentine Rite) Catholics, who only number a few hundred in any given metropolitan area, I can't think of any whites who are having large families. Of whom do you speak?
It is not going to take 200 years for this to happen. It will happen before this century is out.
I am concerned about some of your choices of terminology/assumptions. "Lower status whites" are the only ones who cross racial lines in intermarriage? "Conservative homeschooling evangelicals" don't marry across racial lines? "Brazilianized"?
There's a certain flavor to your post that strikes me as subtle racism, dressed up as demographics.
Maybe I'm off base, but I'd like to see documentation for several of the assumptions you seem to rely upon for your conclusions.
Anyway, here's my projection. In Europe, I think that the immigrants expansion rate will slow down somewhat. There will be some brain drain to the United States, Canada, Australia and NZ from Germany, France, etc. Not a lot of people, but a lot of the entrepreneurial class. Western European economies will more or less stagnate without meaningful reforms, which the elderly and pensioners will resist, and they're a big voting bloc. Population in these countries will also fall, furthering the economic stagnation. But they're not going to become third world, they're just going to become like, say, Austria. Picturesque countries without a lot of innovation.
In the US, I think we'll see whites drop to about 60% or so, but in the long term not going a lot lower than that. There'll be some white immigration from poorer economies, and some of the hispanics will integrate into "white" society. While the first generation, and maybe the second generation will tend to stay closer to their Central American roots, the kids and grandkids will want to integrate into American white society: that's where the jobs are, that's where the entertainment is, etc. Hopefully, we can get them used to speaking English early. Too much bilingualism is going to make a mess later on, but it looks like the tide has turned against bilingualism at least somewhat.
I don't know much about the situation in Australia/NZ. I'm not terribly worried that whites are going to become a minority in a strange land: sure, whites are going to drop, but it's not going to result in the end of the world.
Several of the old tobacco farming families (5th generation and more) in my area have hispanic daughters-in-law. But, maybe this area is different. These same old families (and virtually everone else who is "from" here) claim or can document some native American ancestry. Also, most are just a generation or two removed from subsistence farming. So, dispite the language and culture differences, I just don't think these folks, and I'm one of them, see a huge difference between themselves and the Mexicans who began coming here in the 70's as migrant farm workers and eventually settled down here. It's not the end of the world. It's not even the end of "southern culture," because the putative "mestizo" children of these families are just as tied to the land and to their church as their ("white") grandparents are.
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